Sore-Memorial — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved

Trades

751

lifetime

Volume

$37.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 06-30 22:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

80% 0% $-1

Other

13% 100% +$7

Tech

7% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	72	$1.7K	1,562	1,042	+520	open	—	04-02 14:15
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	22	$1.6K	883	756	+128	open	—	04-09 19:58
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	91	$1.4K	910	621	+289	open	—	03-26 18:38
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	14	$1.3K	688	636	+53	open	—	04-06 22:17
will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	18	$1.3K	652	652	+0	open	—	04-18 22:08
will iran strike bahrain again in march	21	$1.3K	665	665	+0	open	—	04-01 18:19
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 21 2026 123	16	$1.2K	635	635	+0	open	—	03-22 12:57
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 29 2026 897	16	$1.2K	717	545	+172	open	—	03-29 10:44
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	46	$1.1K	682	685	-4	open	—	03-28 23:48
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	15	$1.1K	551	549	+1	open	—	04-26 12:20
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	6	$995	501	501	+0	open	—	03-26 18:00
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 27 2026 153	18	$942	641	322	+319	open	—	03-29 02:26
will iran strike oman again in march	26	$671	707	520	+187	open	—	04-04 20:28
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 23 2026 979	8	$651	570	100	+470	open	—	03-23 16:08
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?	7	$645	405	261	+144	open	—	04-12 08:34
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 25 2026	7	$597	361	304	+57	open	—	03-27 11:05
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	8	$587	392	392	+0	open	—	03-23 08:25
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	5	$582	597	0	+597	open	—	04-19 18:08
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$554	625	286	+338	open	—	04-11 17:17
will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	1	$544	552	0	+552	open	—	06-22 12:25
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	1	$539	544	0	+544	open	—	06-21 08:07
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?	15	$522	385	167	+218	open	—	04-10 07:35
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026?	4	$518	293	293	+0	open	—	04-06 11:21
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 27	4	$502	325	325	+0	open	—	03-24 17:44
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	7	$498	390	390	+0	open	—	03-27 15:58
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	7	$489	509	0	+509	open	—	04-25 12:57
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?	5	$479	286	286	+0	open	—	04-05 23:35
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 31 2026 119	6	$465	390	105	+285	open	—	04-03 20:02
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$455	580	580	+0	open	—	04-11 15:43
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 28 2026	6	$434	221	221	+0	open	—	04-01 17:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 22:56:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	381	71¢	$270	0xe4d817…
06-22 12:25:34	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	552	98¢	$544	0xcb8a8a…
06-21 08:07:46	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	544	99¢	$539	0xcb8fba…
06-18 00:00:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x277e3b…
06-17 23:31:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6dccec…
06-17 23:17:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	69	99¢	$69	0x185c9e…
06-17 22:45:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9cdb12…
06-17 22:25:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x196396…
06-17 22:25:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0fc8df…
06-17 22:23:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9cb933…
06-17 22:22:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x11600a…
06-17 22:21:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe001a8…
06-17 22:09:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x44c014…
06-17 20:17:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	198	99¢	$196	0xd794be…
06-04 08:59:30	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	196	99¢	$195	0x95e9d6…
05-28 17:04:32	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	129	10¢	$13	0xbe9f47…
05-11 18:29:44	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0xa55796…
05-11 18:29:33	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xe0bca4…
05-11 18:29:32	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x7dd18c…
05-02 19:32:36	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	188	100¢	$188	0xa9c60f…
05-01 18:32:16	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	188	96¢	$181	0x7341a6…
05-01 18:31:24	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	SELL	181	100¢	$180	0x670268…
05-01 09:30:52	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	181	99¢	$180	0x1ad7bc…
04-29 09:12:36	James Comey arrested by April 30?	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xb7a81c…
04-26 12:20:32	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0x664161…
04-26 10:14:06	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x4a830f…
04-26 10:12:30	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x91319b…
04-26 10:04:34	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	87	97¢	$84	0x680f3b…
04-26 04:38:38	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x51090d…
04-26 04:37:00	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0xce8838…
04-25 23:41:44	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x3e3a43…
04-25 23:29:00	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$5	0x0c00d0…
04-25 23:28:02	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	51	21¢	$11	0x3e0c87…
04-25 22:48:00	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	65	19¢	$12	0xffe90c…
04-25 22:47:10	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x744892…
04-25 20:53:54	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x1b03a1…
04-25 20:52:22	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x32eb0f…
04-25 20:30:10	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xc98f38…
04-25 20:01:38	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	18	77¢	$14	0xab9a5c…
04-25 19:53:10	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x472aa5…
04-25 19:50:44	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x845947…
04-25 18:04:38	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x1795a9…
04-25 18:03:58	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	183	76¢	$139	0x7190b8…
04-25 17:05:02	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	1¢	$1	0x10a973…
04-25 15:58:44	Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xca4b58…
04-25 15:58:34	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe0c1cb…
04-25 15:41:08	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xc97e9a…
04-25 15:10:18	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x92c03f…
04-25 12:59:54	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	2¢	$4	0xe63347…
04-25 12:57:18	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x308940…
04-25 12:56:46	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x28ee88…
04-25 12:56:34	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x62a8da…
04-25 12:56:20	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xdef501…
04-25 12:56:00	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xcc77df…
04-25 12:55:40	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0xbca486…
04-25 12:45:24	Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5bd65a…
04-25 11:57:16	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x36ac1f…
04-25 11:23:34	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	256	98¢	$250	0x6c3242…
04-25 11:08:48	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x2dfe09…
04-25 09:47:36	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xac305e…
04-25 04:37:04	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xce4cfc…
04-24 19:01:56	will claude opus 4 6 thinking be the top ai model on april 24 2026 style control on	Yes	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x7e6a8c…
04-24 17:19:10	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x2d52a6…
04-24 13:53:26	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x656b94…
04-24 12:42:06	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	94¢	$148	0x6dd13e…
04-24 12:40:42	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x5ec880…
04-24 12:39:56	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x64a3b4…
04-24 12:39:46	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	91¢	$63	0x6656b8…
04-24 12:36:04	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	475	5¢	$24	0x104f5f…
04-24 12:31:24	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	90¢	$106	0x309782…
04-24 12:30:58	Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x268ace…
04-24 12:30:08	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x482675…
04-23 16:01:52	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	567	9¢	$51	0x6d8c4b…
04-19 18:08:10	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	113	97¢	$110	0x8a7227…
04-18 22:50:54	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	255	97¢	$248	0x4a525c…
04-18 22:09:22	will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x2d2884…
04-18 22:08:42	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	218	100¢	$218	0xe1fab4…
04-18 17:51:40	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	132	97¢	$129	0x7a5eab…
04-18 16:47:26	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x25ddcd…
04-18 16:46:50	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	85	97¢	$83	0x61fb33…
04-18 15:09:50	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	218	99¢	$216	0x7eceff…
04-18 14:25:10	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	185	98¢	$182	0x8fe8a3…
04-18 13:51:40	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x44292f…
04-18 13:35:42	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa2446f…
04-18 11:37:54	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xfe69be…
04-18 11:23:52	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x8c3d76…
04-18 10:23:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	87	57¢	$50	0x250984…
04-18 10:21:40	will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0193d8…
04-18 10:21:28	will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x38ed39…
04-18 10:00:58	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xeaefe4…
04-18 05:02:14	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	109	98¢	$106	0xbea819…
04-18 02:52:38	Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0x0f7894…
04-18 00:00:40	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x05838a…
04-17 23:52:54	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x4a20cd…
04-17 23:51:38	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xb345ce…
04-17 15:13:20	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	68	61¢	$42	0xfb77f4…
04-17 15:06:46	Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	Yes	SELL	227	0¢	$0	0xd0d740…
04-17 15:06:02	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	143	0¢	$0	0xa88c7e…
04-17 06:59:02	will tisza win 50 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x22643d…
04-17 04:27:06	will tisza win 54 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xe0647b…