Sugary-Espalier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

157

Trades

159

lifetime

Volume

$3.92K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-07 13:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 100% +$7

Other

36% 100% +$5

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$59	59	+59	No	+$0	09-23 11:05
will bitcoin reach 67k on july 22	1	$57	58	+58	No	+$0	07-23 02:37
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	1	$56	57	+57	No	+$0	09-29 18:29
bitcoin above 68k on july 3 2026	1	$55	55	+55	No	+$0	07-01 19:53
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$54	54	+54	No	+$0	09-13 18:06
will bitcoin dip to 54k july 6 12 2026	1	$54	54	+54	No	+$0	07-10 09:39
bitcoin above 60k on august 22 2026	1	$52	53	+53	Yes	+$0	08-20 13:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8?	1	$51	51	+51	Yes	+$0	10-07 09:04
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	1	$48	49	+49	No	+$0	10-12 15:10
will bitcoin dip to 58k july 6 12 2026	2	$48	48	+48	No	+$0	07-12 03:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19?	1	$47	47	+47	Yes	+$0	10-19 04:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	1	$46	47	+47	No	+$0	08-27 15:17
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	1	$46	46	+46	Yes	+$0	05-21 05:43
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat?	1	$45	46	+46	Yes	+$0	11-01 16:03
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	1	$44	44	+44	No	+$0	07-28 12:53
will bitcoin dip to 76k on september 2 2026	1	$43	43	+43	No	+$0	09-03 02:08
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$43	43	+43	No	+$0	05-15 11:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	1	$42	42	+42	No	+$0	05-20 12:45
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	1	$42	42	+42	No	+$0	06-01 14:20
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	1	$42	42	+42	No	+$0	05-13 14:18
ethereum above 2000 on april 13	1	$40	40	+40	Yes	+$0	04-13 11:12
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	1	$40	40	+40	No	+$0	06-24 09:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 31-September 6?	1	$39	40	+40	No	+$0	09-06 18:32
will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	1	$39	39	+39	No	+$0	07-17 20:43
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 19-25?	1	$39	39	+39	No	+$0	10-24 07:30
bitcoin above 68k on august 12 2026	1	$39	39	+39	No	+$0	08-11 08:29
bitcoin above 70k on june 23 2026	1	$38	38	+38	No	+$0	06-22 22:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 5?	1	$38	38	+38	Yes	+$0	10-03 07:21
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 5?	1	$37	37	+37	No	+$0	11-05 10:18
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23?	1	$36	36	+36	No	+$0	05-22 22:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 13:43:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x41fd96…
11-05 10:18:57	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 5?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xa80b6a…
11-01 16:03:45	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0xf17be4…
10-25 00:20:17	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4528fd…
10-24 07:30:11	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xdb703a…
10-23 17:05:47	Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5a91b6…
10-20 04:08:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xd1c951…
10-19 04:12:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x6a18e2…
10-16 12:03:33	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x34f285…
10-12 15:10:08	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0x6daa23…
10-11 12:11:27	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x1e3a46…
10-10 15:22:48	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd5c9b3…
10-07 09:04:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x4d8da8…
10-04 22:37:47	Will Erika Kokay win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3324b4…
10-03 07:21:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 5?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x01a3f2…
10-01 14:55:32	bitcoin above 82k on october 1 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x700665…
09-29 18:29:50	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$56	0xb40e07…
09-25 14:01:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 26?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa4f4b1…
09-24 16:47:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 25?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2e95e8…
09-23 11:05:52	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0xbab639…
09-19 11:37:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 19?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1ceca2…
09-14 06:14:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xce254b…
09-13 18:06:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x9892be…
09-06 18:32:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0xb252e3…
09-05 16:32:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf90281…
09-03 02:08:12	will bitcoin dip to 76k on september 2 2026	No	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x0f22af…
09-02 19:44:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x3f4f29…
08-28 02:00:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd24433…
08-27 15:17:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$46	0x11491b…
08-27 02:49:34	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x790c9f…
08-26 03:42:25	bitcoin above 84k on august 26 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x86be10…
08-20 16:21:43	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7c958a…
08-20 13:41:09	bitcoin above 60k on august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$52	0xb7cef8…
08-17 05:31:43	ethereum above 2000 on august 17 2026	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x0cd454…
08-16 03:31:06	bitcoin above 66k on august 17 2026	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xb8339c…
08-13 17:03:55	will bitcoin reach 70k august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xbf6121…
08-11 08:29:25	bitcoin above 68k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x321145…
08-07 04:42:27	will wti reach 95 by august 3 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xceb26e…
07-31 16:23:53	will xagusd dip to 50 in july 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xede545…
07-29 01:35:12	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x22a958…
07-28 12:53:50	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x771733…
07-25 12:08:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 25?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x978d05…
07-23 02:37:45	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 22	No	BUY	58	100¢	$57	0x38611c…
07-21 08:22:40	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x1bbd2b…
07-17 20:43:01	will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xcdd54e…
07-16 15:11:20	2026 corales puntacana championship top20 taylor montgomery	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x1ad767…
07-16 03:56:34	ethereum above 2100 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x63e368…
07-14 08:29:02	bitcoin above 66k on july 15 2026	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xdd4d2f…
07-12 03:42:49	will bitcoin dip to 58k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa347ed…
07-11 08:25:10	bitcoin above 66k on july 11 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7884e2…
07-10 13:11:26	will bitcoin dip to 58k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x3b5296…
07-10 09:39:25	will bitcoin dip to 54k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xef0ada…
07-08 07:35:40	bitcoin above 56k on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5e0220…
07-06 15:38:05	bitcoin above 70k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x9694a3…
07-06 00:55:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 6?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x59286f…
07-05 00:56:59	bitcoin above 60k on july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x518203…
07-04 11:01:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 4?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2b37dc…
07-04 01:40:16	will ethereum reach 2000 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xf7c739…
07-03 12:08:53	will bitcoin reach 68k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xea4d2d…
07-03 05:22:43	will bitcoin dip to 48k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7cd520…
07-02 22:35:34	bitcoin above 54k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf377e7…
07-01 22:43:26	bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa6d036…
07-01 19:53:22	bitcoin above 68k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xbb186f…
07-01 05:37:13	will andurils valuation hit high 150b by june 30	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x646923…
06-30 17:55:53	will andurils valuation hit high 110b by june 30	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xfacc75…
06-30 15:59:08	bitcoin above 54k on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfd0267…
06-24 09:50:40	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x28603c…
06-23 04:46:04	bitcoin above 60k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x22c666…
06-22 22:34:55	bitcoin above 70k on june 23 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xd2daa8…
06-22 00:45:20	bitcoin above 68k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x162b64…
06-21 10:54:05	bitcoin above 62k on june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x51e50c…
06-02 20:52:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5c161f…
06-02 02:34:28	Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa984f4…
06-01 14:20:52	Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x37b988…
06-01 07:42:39	Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x9d2f1d…
05-31 15:50:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xab8c09…
05-30 18:03:50	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x350e91…
05-30 11:42:57	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd95085…
05-29 13:57:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xd26af3…
05-29 06:42:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbdf480…
05-28 10:21:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x948935…
05-28 07:14:07	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa9d672…
05-28 06:00:13	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xd87ca7…
05-27 10:15:22	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x123b4d…
05-27 05:48:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xeb055a…
05-26 19:25:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x57f22b…
05-26 09:21:27	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6822c5…
05-25 10:55:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xd485f3…
05-25 06:11:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x0ad425…
05-25 02:14:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd01b60…
05-24 17:50:40	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xabef4b…
05-24 14:01:23	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xde55f1…
05-24 03:19:39	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 24?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x617047…
05-23 04:20:36	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x441333…
05-22 22:50:15	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x067009…
05-22 16:41:04	Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x1559f2…
05-22 10:21:42	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8b45bc…
05-21 14:38:38	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x6748d1…
05-21 11:15:52	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x798043…
05-21 05:43:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xe5dfda…