Ill-Fated-Steel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$104

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

7.1%

Resolved

119

Trades

464

lifetime

Volume

$6.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-28

last 07-29 02:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

70% 4% -$52

Politics

19% 7% -$43

Tech

7% 0% -$6

Sports

4% 33% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$3

Crypto

0% 0% —

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-29).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No		-11	-$6	58¢	$-7	-$1	05-15 10:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	10	$1.4K	695	695	+0	Yes	-$1	05-18 08:47
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?	2	$277	150	150	+0	Yes	$0	05-17 05:14
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 18?	5	$172	219	119	+100	Yes	+$51	05-18 11:38
iran full airspace closure by august 15	12	$154	160	160	+0	No	-$3	07-29 02:10
will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	6	$133	80	80	+0	No	-$2	07-28 14:00
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	6	$132	80	80	+0	No	-$1	07-27 10:19
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	7	$115	115	115	+0	No	$0	05-18 11:57
will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	8	$110	83	83	+0	No	-$1	07-27 15:17
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	5	$103	146	146	+0	Yes	+$43	05-18 12:20
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	5	$102	60	60	+0	No	$0	07-27 17:08
will trump praise benjamin netanyahu by july 31 20260724182749274	7	$96	60	60	+0	Yes	-$1	07-25 19:12
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	10	$86	176	2	+174	Yes	+$2	05-18 10:21
another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	12	$84	92	92	+0	No	-$2	07-27 12:17
will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	6	$79	79	79	+0	No	-$2	07-28 16:59
will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	8	$77	80	80	+0	No	-$2	07-28 18:54
will nflx dip to 70 by july 27 2026	7	$76	80	80	+0	Yes	-$2	07-27 04:56
will rklb dip to 64 by july 27 2026	7	$72	60	60	+0	Yes	-$1	07-27 16:30
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?	3	$69	40	40	+0	No	$0	07-27 10:58
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	3	$69	40	40	+0	No	-$2	07-26 00:52
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	3	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 22:16
will spy reach 760 by july 27 2026	3	$67	40	40	+0	No	+$0	07-26 23:52
Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?	3	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 09:43
Will Puka Nacua finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?	3	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 04:53
will mu reach 960 by july 27 2026	7	$65	60	60	+0	No	-$6	07-28 01:03
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?	3	$65	40	40	+0	No	-$2	07-28 11:22
will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	3	$65	40	40	+0	No	-$2	07-28 11:15
will trump say china or chinese during michigan remarks 20260724162420365	3	$65	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	07-26 01:08
will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 20260727233336449	4	$64	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	07-28 20:41
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?	3	$64	40	40	+0	Yes	-$3	07-26 00:06
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	3	$64	40	40	+0	No	+$0	07-25 15:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-29 02:10:50	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Zepbound sales be above $4.5B?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x4e3de7…
07-29 02:10:48	Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x66b9a9…
07-29 02:10:44	Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xf7a35e…
07-29 02:10:30	Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xe1b028…
07-29 02:10:11	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xb9f2b7…
07-29 02:09:53	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?	No	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x58a0a9…
07-29 02:09:44	Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" during cabinet meeting?	No	SELL	40	74¢	$30	0x48dafe…
07-29 01:53:30	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of July 27 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x5080f9…
07-29 01:53:21	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of July 27 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	16¢	$3	0x3ec10c…
07-29 01:53:18	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of July 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9e4914…
07-29 01:53:17	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of July 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0x9a6679…
07-29 01:24:03	Will Brennan O'Neill win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x8ce3ea…
07-29 00:08:49	Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x908cf3…
07-29 00:08:47	Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x462efb…
07-28 22:16:29	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xcbba24…
07-28 22:16:26	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xf1a8ad…
07-28 22:04:44	will xauusd reach 4150 by july 27 2026	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xafc2da…
07-28 22:04:40	will xauusd reach 4150 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xeef705…
07-28 22:01:46	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0xab6d36…
07-28 22:01:44	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1bfb76…
07-28 21:55:28	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x657892…
07-28 21:51:40	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x574916…
07-28 21:51:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x859cf8…
07-28 21:51:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x9c2cbb…
07-28 20:41:23	will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 20260727233336449	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xeed162…
07-28 20:15:23	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x140ba9…
07-28 20:15:17	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xa8463e…
07-28 20:13:26	Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x1047f3…
07-28 20:13:22	Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xa819b9…
07-28 19:46:40	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x4efdeb…
07-28 19:46:38	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x3ce2d9…
07-28 18:54:04	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x471754…
07-28 18:54:01	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x728223…
07-28 17:20:08	Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x285eaa…
07-28 17:20:07	Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcaf1cd…
07-28 16:59:58	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	Yes	SELL	39	13¢	$5	0x3904ba…
07-28 16:59:55	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$3	0x552e5a…
07-28 16:20:14	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x5dbe1c…
07-28 16:20:10	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x4cf71d…
07-28 16:05:59	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x38f33e…
07-28 16:05:53	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x1f085f…
07-28 15:27:17	will rklb dip to 54 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x7868ee…
07-28 15:27:05	will rklb dip to 54 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x3691fd…
07-28 15:27:05	will rklb dip to 54 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0aaaa5…
07-28 15:27:01	will rklb dip to 54 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x5988a3…
07-28 15:18:13	will spy dip to 720 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x3ed8cf…
07-28 15:18:10	will spy dip to 720 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0dc7fe…
07-28 14:46:43	Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	32	18¢	$6	0x477215…
07-28 14:46:38	Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0x518ec4…
07-28 14:10:17	will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 20260727233336449	Yes	SELL	34	80¢	$27	0x08b5c4…
07-28 14:10:16	will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 20260727233336449	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xbae16b…
07-28 14:04:34	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x29eebc…
07-28 14:04:29	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x458d0f…
07-28 14:00:11	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x997718…
07-28 14:00:05	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x337a25…
07-28 13:40:44	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x0317d3…
07-28 13:38:38	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x6f3644…
07-28 13:38:02	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	24	85¢	$20	0x762c41…
07-28 13:38:02	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x6526a1…
07-28 13:38:01	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	14	85¢	$12	0x674f2c…
07-28 13:36:10	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xa16fca…
07-28 13:36:04	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xfce5ac…
07-28 13:36:04	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x3f3475…
07-28 13:36:01	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x56d798…
07-28 13:33:07	will rklb reach 76 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xe9d036…
07-28 13:33:04	will rklb reach 76 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x5d335c…
07-28 13:02:05	will russia target kyiv by august 31 2026 20260727233830632	No	SELL	26	10¢	$3	0xbe0d5f…
07-28 13:02:04	will russia target kyiv by august 31 2026 20260727233830632	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x42b9ef…
07-28 13:01:50	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0x33bffe…
07-28 13:01:50	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x012a23…
07-28 13:01:49	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xd5ae74…
07-28 12:52:17	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x43e10d…
07-28 12:52:14	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x51c80b…
07-28 12:30:20	will trump say trump derangement syndrome during cabinet meeting 20260727172357447	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xad405a…
07-28 11:36:59	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x2fc206…
07-28 11:32:40	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xd87d36…
07-28 11:32:37	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xc606ab…
07-28 11:22:53	Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x1104f4…
07-28 11:22:52	Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x951dbd…
07-28 11:15:08	will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x3be310…
07-28 10:47:50	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0xef18fa…
07-28 10:47:49	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xd2f553…
07-28 10:41:07	will xauusd reach 4200 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x8e2e75…
07-28 10:41:05	will xauusd reach 4200 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x8d1bf4…
07-28 10:36:59	will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xed9f5e…
07-28 09:43:52	Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0xaef166…
07-28 08:32:25	Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x1813a4…
07-28 08:01:45	Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next?	No	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0x2f74d0…
07-28 07:56:16	Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc0108e…
07-28 07:44:03	will leavitt say president 50 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420401	Yes	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0x9d346d…
07-28 07:40:22	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xf77091…
07-28 07:37:07	Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	No	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0xee9e7c…
07-28 07:37:03	Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x61c7ce…
07-28 07:35:43	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xa9c0e6…
07-28 07:16:48	will leavitt say president 50 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420401	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xb471ab…
07-28 07:06:52	will wild horse nine be nominated for best picture at the 99th academy awards	Yes	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x046a60…
07-28 07:06:48	will wild horse nine be nominated for best picture at the 99th academy awards	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x9346bd…
07-28 06:39:01	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 26 2026 20260724221849657	No	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0xba5319…
07-28 06:38:58	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 26 2026 20260724221849657	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x7f22fe…
07-28 05:45:13	Will the Chargers win the season series against the Chiefs during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x2f2193…