Harsh-Macro 0x511f9c…1acbe1
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$81.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$45.8K
Hit rate
83.8%
Resolved
9,948
Trades
152,272
lifetime
Volume
$15.9M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$104
Open exposure
$2.18M
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-16
last 10-26 21:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 163 days
Categories
Other
59% 86% +$54,017
Politics
24% 84% +$27,243
Sports
14% 91% +$24,476
Tech
1% 81% -$23,772
Crypto
1% 86% -$3
Pop-Culture
0% 88% -$214
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1838 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +355,623 $348,335 100¢ $355.1K +$6,755 10-26 20:58
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +368,338 $319,229 95¢ $351.4K +$32,166 10-26 20:58
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +388,885 $307,661 79¢ $306.6K -$1,025 10-26 20:58
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +199,084 $194,114 100¢ $198.9K +$4,771 10-26 17:44
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +161,248 $160,495 100¢ $161.0K +$511 10-26 18:32
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +381,598 $133,057 28¢ $105.5K -$27,545 10-26 20:58
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +102,119 $100,590 100¢ $102.0K +$1,427 10-26 20:40
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +42,807 $42,572 100¢ $42.7K +$170 10-20 19:30
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No +38,520 $38,337 100¢ $38.3K -$10 09-22 16:25
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +37,478 $37,136 100¢ $37.4K +$285 10-20 19:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +50,248 $28,872 70¢ $35.4K +$6,553 10-25 12:26
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +38,560 $26,649 84¢ $32.4K +$5,741 09-22 16:25
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +32,568 $31,737 98¢ $31.9K +$180 10-25 12:26
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +32,571 $28,841 90¢ $29.2K +$310 10-25 12:26
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +26,155 $25,158 97¢ $25.5K +$304 07-24 15:36
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +24,810 $23,291 98¢ $24.3K +$961 07-24 15:36
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +24,210 $23,710 99¢ $24.1K +$343 10-01 22:37
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +25,606 $24,210 94¢ $23.9K -$268 07-24 15:36
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +24,043 $23,927 99¢ $23.8K -$112 10-01 22:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +24,043 $23,636 97¢ $23.4K -$243 10-01 22:37
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +24,810 $22,647 94¢ $23.2K +$551 07-24 15:36
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +32,881 $20,848 68¢ $22.5K +$1,675 10-26 14:11
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +22,457 $21,723 100¢ $22.4K +$701 09-30 11:52
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +22,032 $21,675 99¢ $21.9K +$236 09-20 03:27
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +26,500 $20,271 82¢ $21.9K +$1,592 07-24 15:36
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +26,821 $21,604 78¢ $21.1K -$550 07-24 15:36
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +19,838 $5,777 99¢ $19.6K +$13,833 10-25 17:41
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No +19,371 $19,311 100¢ $19.3K +$32 10-23 00:34
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +19,348 $19,271 100¢ $19.3K +$19 10-26 14:10
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -36,310 -$15,693 53¢ $-19281 -$3,587 10-22 16:30