Breakable-Fallingout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

10.2%

Resolved

Trades

841

lifetime

Volume

$11.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$129

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-01 03:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% 67% +$7

Other

24% — —

Crypto

18% 50% +$1

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No	-144	$-82	87¢	$-125	$-43	05-28 15:54
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	+4	$3	79¢	$3	$-0	06-23 10:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+1	$0	76¢	$1	+$0	06-07 22:23
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+0	$-0	60¢	$0	+$1	06-26 17:00
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	+0	$-4	0¢	$0	+$4	06-19 08:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	15	$890	683	683	+0	No	$-10	05-06 12:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	12	$485	271	271	+0	open	—	05-15 13:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$443	514	514	+0	open	—	01-15 16:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	8	$428	68	435	-367	open	—	01-20 05:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	8	$419	268	268	+0	open	—	05-23 10:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$401	1,265	1,265	+0	open	—	05-28 08:30
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	7	$384	258	258	+0	open	—	01-14 17:00
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	12	$378	382	202	+180	open	—	01-11 13:16
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	27	$321	215	215	+0	open	—	06-14 07:20
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	17	$317	281	202	+80	open	—	06-05 23:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$305	700	700	+0	open	—	01-11 07:30
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	4	$251	311	245	+65	open	—	05-27 04:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	4	$244	157	157	+0	open	—	05-23 10:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	5	$234	137	136	+1	open	—	05-06 09:33
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	2	$205	151	151	+0	open	—	01-26 09:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	8	$205	114	94	+20	open	—	05-29 03:37
Will the US strike Somalia next?	10	$191	140	156	-15	open	—	01-13 20:47
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	10	$184	304	267	+37	open	—	02-05 05:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$157	114	151	-38	open	—	05-20 20:53
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 30 on sunday	8	$156	405	405	+0	open	—	01-11 10:00
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	11	$152	137	75	+62	open	—	01-23 17:31
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	29	$151	103	103	+0	open	—	06-11 07:59
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$129	80	80	+0	open	—	02-13 21:37
us strike on somalia by february 14	3	$118	139	103	+36	open	—	02-14 09:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	10	$116	63	63	+1	open	—	06-10 17:19
bitcoin above 94k on february 1	2	$115	61	61	+0	open	—	01-29 11:02
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	15	$114	158	158	+0	open	—	02-06 08:38
will the us strike somalia next 656	2	$113	64	64	+0	open	—	01-24 13:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	14	$110	100	99	+1	open	—	06-15 08:45
us strike on somalia by january 31	3	$104	57	57	+0	open	—	01-10 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 03:50:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0xb3d017…
07-01 03:50:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0xac9a3c…
07-01 03:38:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x843be1…
06-30 22:25:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0xb686bc…
06-30 18:49:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xd0550a…
06-30 16:45:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xa55fba…
06-29 12:40:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x86fd43…
06-29 12:31:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xaf4371…
06-28 18:30:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x5ad9bf…
06-28 10:12:44	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xbdde9c…
06-27 12:59:31	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x4dab56…
06-26 17:11:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x7fd254…
06-26 17:11:07	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x6ca67c…
06-26 17:00:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xbc8d5a…
06-26 13:53:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x7344d2…
06-26 13:47:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x177dcf…
06-26 13:46:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x6fda57…
06-26 13:46:15	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x55d64f…
06-26 03:09:43	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xffda30…
06-26 03:09:43	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x534b28…
06-25 12:10:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xfaa922…
06-25 11:40:02	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x964458…
06-25 10:53:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xad975f…
06-25 00:40:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x9ff3e6…
06-24 20:58:35	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xacb2a7…
06-24 17:26:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x8c44c3…
06-24 17:12:04	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x6f2293…
06-24 13:31:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x8202b7…
06-24 13:31:34	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	109	2¢	$2	0xf87148…
06-24 10:24:37	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x966503…
06-24 10:23:59	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xb84939…
06-24 10:23:53	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xe20524…
06-24 00:21:07	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x3e96e7…
06-24 00:21:05	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0x80adb6…
06-24 00:21:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x439a7c…
06-24 00:10:29	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	32	4¢	$1	0x47efb3…
06-23 23:36:11	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x923d4e…
06-23 22:47:29	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x58fc70…
06-23 22:42:13	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0x0c76b0…
06-23 20:02:10	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd7e43f…
06-23 15:17:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0xcf8a57…
06-23 10:56:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x353737…
06-23 10:56:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x463343…
06-23 10:56:04	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xeba993…
06-23 10:56:04	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x22786a…
06-23 10:56:02	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xf12ec5…
06-20 13:20:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xc4120e…
06-19 08:52:10	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x32601f…
06-19 07:48:52	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0xe3752c…
06-19 07:36:32	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf8b0d4…
06-19 07:36:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x3e05a5…
06-18 22:29:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x344bf3…
06-18 22:22:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x5f7cdc…
06-18 22:08:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa7dd53…
06-18 21:40:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	17	37¢	$6	0x09a28f…
06-18 20:07:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x4e5365…
06-18 20:05:20	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x364eb2…
06-18 20:05:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x67f9ae…
06-18 20:05:10	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x099747…
06-18 19:53:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x92de57…
06-18 19:44:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	4	62¢	$3	0xe3bd5b…
06-18 19:11:37	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x5110d7…
06-18 18:58:05	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xb2943c…
06-18 18:44:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xf14725…
06-18 18:40:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	44	10¢	$4	0x338d03…
06-18 16:44:37	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0x19ff52…
06-18 16:23:38	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x9f3b20…
06-18 16:06:01	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x2cb45d…
06-18 16:01:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0xd395fa…
06-18 14:25:55	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	77¢	$6	0xa41a6b…
06-18 00:43:58	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xdcf4c2…
06-17 23:56:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xb2f4e9…
06-17 23:56:23	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xf0c533…
06-17 23:04:37	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xe44ca5…
06-17 22:58:35	will shehbaz sharif sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950081	No	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x51e82a…
06-17 22:50:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0xd1ee93…
06-17 22:50:28	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0x8d004d…
06-17 22:50:26	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x6950f4…
06-17 22:50:22	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2ec314…
06-17 22:50:20	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xa822ed…
06-17 21:36:31	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x139ab8…
06-17 21:36:31	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x03bfba…
06-17 21:32:13	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xe814d8…
06-17 21:31:14	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0xf70046…
06-17 21:24:59	will shehbaz sharif sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950081	No	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0xa27c19…
06-17 18:20:37	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xc314da…
06-17 18:20:05	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x5602a2…
06-17 18:16:19	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x18a261…
06-17 17:48:08	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa807b2…
06-17 17:47:49	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xd6ca85…
06-17 17:29:22	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xd4ef11…
06-17 17:29:17	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x336ff3…
06-17 17:19:59	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xa9aa53…
06-17 17:16:29	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x06fb27…
06-17 13:19:02	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x4ad4a9…
06-17 13:18:01	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x7e5ded…
06-17 13:17:59	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x8ec89f…
06-17 13:17:58	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x8f3b5b…
06-17 13:17:56	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xfae16a…
06-17 12:58:52	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x2610cb…