Ugly-Bronchitis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$2.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-31 03:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

83% 96% +$13

Politics

8% 83% +$1

Tech

5% 100% +$2

Sports

2% 100% +$1

Crypto

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	06-16 14:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	05-29 16:18
highest temperature in wellington on march 19 2026 19c	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-19 04:53
highest temperature in munich on march 17 2026 12c	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	03-17 02:04
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	2	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$1	04-01 04:16
will hoppers 4th weekend box office be greater than 13m	2	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$1	03-29 03:32
will elizabeth taylor get between 2pt75 and 3 million views in the first week	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	04-09 05:28
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$43	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	05-22 16:01
highest temperature in shanghai on march 16 2026 13c	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$1	03-16 06:37
will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-25 11:15
highest temperature in tel aviv on march 19 2026 18c	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	03-18 22:24
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$40	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 16:00
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	04-13 19:21
will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	03-31 03:29
will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	06-08 21:06
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$0	06-14 15:55
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 81 million views on day 6	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$0	03-27 08:12
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$37	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 05:41
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	2	$37	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	05-04 19:10
bitcoin above 48k on july 7 2026	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	07-02 21:11
starmer out by june 22 2026	2	$36	18	18	+0	Yes	+$0	06-22 08:35
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3?	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$0	05-05 04:08
Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	05-18 15:14
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	2	$33	17	17	+0	Yes	+$0	03-17 14:45
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	2	$33	17	17	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 17:32
Will Oh Joong-ki win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	06-04 02:46
will the median home value in miami be between 1180000 and 1200000 by april 1	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-01 13:01
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-27 11:05
iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	07-13 01:34
will the drama opening weekend box office be between 12m and 13m	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	04-05 06:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 03:28:22	Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x26bcbe…
07-13 01:34:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x5c84ed…
07-11 20:31:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x5a0a8a…
07-02 21:11:02	bitcoin above 48k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x1585ec…
06-25 13:24:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4e00f9…
06-25 12:14:04	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb3fc1f…
06-22 08:35:02	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x0c6f1f…
06-22 08:25:22	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xe42867…
06-22 01:38:43	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xd45e6d…
06-22 01:38:16	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xfd2cd7…
06-16 14:06:13	Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xb4c7e8…
06-15 17:32:21	Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x34e99f…
06-15 11:06:16	Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xa9438d…
06-14 17:18:43	Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xb8a7c3…
06-14 15:55:04	Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x3b865d…
06-14 14:22:48	Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xc6ec16…
06-08 21:06:22	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x363b7e…
06-07 18:16:43	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x81297f…
06-04 02:46:39	Will Oh Joong-ki win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x009e96…
06-02 07:20:21	Will Oh Joong-ki win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x4d0a58…
05-31 16:00:13	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7e1b0b…
05-31 05:41:41	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xaa4a4b…
05-30 18:11:34	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xb431b7…
05-29 16:18:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x3496ae…
05-29 07:27:23	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6348e2…
05-22 16:01:33	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x40f76e…
05-22 08:16:11	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xbda2f9…
05-18 15:14:24	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x899145…
05-18 13:16:06	Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x6474a7…
05-17 18:42:52	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x922625…
05-11 20:59:48	Will "Man on Fire" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x533de4…
05-07 16:56:21	Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x612e04…
05-05 04:08:02	Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xcac0c3…
05-04 22:09:50	Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x78fc61…
05-04 19:10:40	Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xb89d9f…
05-04 00:08:36	Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x8a70a2…
04-29 18:47:16	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1265aa…
04-27 11:05:16	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xc223b2…
04-26 12:47:22	Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x9698ee…
04-22 19:26:16	will mrbeasts video get between 76 and 77 million views on day 5	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x06c764…
04-16 08:18:42	will claude opus 4 6 be the best ai model on april 17 2026	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x5031d2…
04-13 19:21:23	will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x155464…
04-13 09:20:13	will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xff0de7…
04-09 05:28:11	will elizabeth taylor get between 2pt75 and 3 million views in the first week	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xb983a2…
04-08 12:48:19	will elizabeth taylor get between 2pt75 and 3 million views in the first week	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xa59820…
04-05 06:27:47	will the drama opening weekend box office be between 12m and 13m	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xf015bb…
04-01 13:01:11	will the median home value in miami be between 1180000 and 1200000 by april 1	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x1fbd79…
04-01 04:16:49	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x58cbec…
03-31 12:46:51	will the median home value in miami be between 1180000 and 1200000 by april 1	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x4c11e4…
03-31 03:29:39	will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xeb901d…
03-30 06:41:12	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x2c3007…
03-30 00:43:10	will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x361f47…
03-29 03:32:08	will hoppers 4th weekend box office be greater than 13m	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x29d725…
03-29 00:54:54	will hoppers 4th weekend box office be greater than 13m	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xc65bbc…
03-27 08:12:03	will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 81 million views on day 6	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xd24181…
03-26 17:19:53	will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 81 million views on day 6	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xcafa5a…
03-25 11:15:59	will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x7721c2…
03-24 23:00:27	will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x0fe68b…
03-24 13:01:09	will 30 34 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xf54b1f…
03-19 04:53:55	highest temperature in wellington on march 19 2026 19c	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x0078de…
03-19 03:02:55	highest temperature in wellington on march 19 2026 19c	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x494464…
03-18 22:24:29	highest temperature in tel aviv on march 19 2026 18c	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x2e3693…
03-18 13:17:47	highest temperature in tel aviv on march 19 2026 18c	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xb02b96…
03-17 14:45:03	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x5adc7a…
03-17 02:04:27	highest temperature in munich on march 17 2026 12c	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x6d0572…
03-16 21:05:03	will hoppers 2nd weekend box office be between 26m and 29m	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x0aec6f…
03-16 12:00:39	highest temperature in toronto on march 17 2026 neg 7c	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xa35694…
03-16 12:00:39	highest temperature in munich on march 17 2026 12c	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x993cdd…
03-16 12:00:39	highest temperature in munich on march 17 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x35f5ab…
03-16 06:37:59	highest temperature in shanghai on march 16 2026 13c	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xc461ae…
03-16 06:10:41	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x3dcc55…
03-16 04:40:59	chatgpt outage by march 15	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x15cb4a…
03-16 03:38:05	highest temperature in shanghai on march 16 2026 13c	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x86881d…
03-15 15:15:15	will hoppers 2nd weekend box office be between 26m and 29m	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf59607…
03-15 00:46:09	will 30 34 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x37dbbc…
03-14 09:17:37	chatgpt outage by march 15	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xec0e83…
03-12 18:28:57	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x7b2651…
03-12 18:24:57	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x61f9c1…
03-11 18:38:23	will mrbeasts next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 5	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9726af…
03-11 17:43:43	will mrbeasts next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 5	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4abd90…
03-11 12:39:03	will a dozen eggs cost 2pt80 in february	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbb5233…
03-10 17:00:31	will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9cbbb7…
03-10 03:31:17	will a dozen eggs cost 2pt80 in february	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x40a0ba…
03-09 10:20:59	will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2cd8aa…
03-08 16:01:07	will scream 7 second weekend box office be less than 19m	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x937be8…
03-08 12:09:43	will scream 7 second weekend box office be less than 19m	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe3625b…
03-07 21:09:23	will greczula win melodifestivalen 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf98962…
03-06 13:31:15	will the us add between 150k and 175k jobs in february	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa5aadc…
03-06 01:08:09	will greczula win melodifestivalen 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x633eea…
03-05 06:18:31	will the us add between 150k and 175k jobs in february	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x1ed4a8…
03-03 21:21:05	Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x99b007…
03-03 14:51:03	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 3 2026 30c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4aacb4…
03-03 10:26:53	highest temperature in ankara on march 3 2026 14c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb89fea…
03-02 12:03:43	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 3 2026 30c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe78567…
03-02 12:03:43	highest temperature in ankara on march 3 2026 14c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7b5ddf…
03-02 00:00:37	Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x69f823…
03-01 02:59:27	highest temperature in seoul on march 1 2026 10c	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9d8291…
03-01 02:23:51	highest temperature in seoul on march 1 2026 10c	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xc6c8d9…
02-28 05:41:15	highest temperature in wellington on february 28 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x69d62e…
02-28 04:40:49	highest temperature in wellington on february 28 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x99fdea…