Limited-Success — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

Trades

136

lifetime

Volume

$1.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$74

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 09-22 10:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

65% 57% -$31

Politics

19% 80% -$2

Crypto

11% 100% +$23

Sports

3% 0% -$30

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+83	$41	56¢	$46	+$5	09-22 10:06
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+32	$20	77¢	$25	+$5	09-22 10:05
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$10	16¢	$3	-$6	08-22 04:11
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4	$2	9¢	$0	-$2	09-18 11:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say hormuz during address to the nation	2	$74	40	40	+0	Yes	+$6	04-02 01:51
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$50	53	0	+53	Yes	+$3	03-03 12:22
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?	2	$41	21	21	+0	Yes	+$1	05-13 08:30
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$41	83	0	+83	open	—	09-22 10:06
will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	1	$40	44	0	+44	No	+$4	03-18 03:50
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	4	$32	35	10	+25	Yes	+$3	07-03 04:22
will trump say oil or gas 3 times during address to the nation	2	$31	17	17	+0	Yes	+$3	04-02 01:51
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	3	$30	48	29	+20	open	—	08-22 04:11
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	5	$27	27	27	+0	Yes	+$3	06-12 05:49
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$25	22	22	+0	Argentina	-$15	07-07 17:48
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026?	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	05-21 13:53
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	5	$23	17	17	+0	Yes	+$5	07-03 01:08
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$21	25	25	+0	No	-$19	05-16 08:27
will hyperliquid reach 76 in june	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-16 12:13
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	2	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	05-21 14:47
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$20	48	0	+48	No	-$20	04-13 03:51
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?	1	$20	27	0	+27	Yes	+$7	05-20 11:17
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	1	$20	25	0	+25	No	+$5	03-03 12:38
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	24	0	+24	Yes	+$4	06-01 01:31
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	26	0	+26	Yes	+$6	05-21 01:48
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$20	32	0	+32	open	—	09-22 10:05
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	1	$20	21	0	+21	Yes	+$1	07-04 03:26
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?	2	$17	9	9	+0	Yes	+$1	09-06 08:50
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	3	$16	26	21	+5	Yes	-$9	07-07 17:56
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	1	$14	15	0	+15	Yes	+$1	06-23 01:23
will hyperliquid reach 44 in march	1	$14	18	0	+18	No	-$14	03-18 03:57
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	2	$13	14	0	+14	Yes	+$1	06-24 00:49
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	4	$13	17	6	+10	Yes	-$1	06-29 18:57
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	1	$11	11	0	+11	Yes	+$0	06-21 04:50
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 06:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 10:06:24	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x20c5ea…
09-22 10:05:49	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x9e7890…
09-22 08:29:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x42e3af…
09-18 11:57:27	Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x8c8ca4…
09-18 05:22:36	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x926cc2…
09-18 05:21:12	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x535180…
09-17 14:40:16	Will Zcash reach $1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x24134e…
09-06 10:37:18	Will Zcash reach $1400 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x9690fa…
09-06 08:50:21	Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfc9e27…
09-06 08:49:52	Will Zcash reach $1200 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd29d4e…
09-06 04:19:16	Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x4ed0d2…
09-04 03:10:43	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0x2615ee…
09-04 02:23:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x90596c…
09-04 02:23:40	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x0d38e7…
08-24 03:59:24	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x75d5aa…
08-24 03:59:21	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x25e20d…
08-22 04:11:25	Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc1c293…
08-22 04:11:18	Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8421ac…
08-22 04:11:10	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x58259a…
07-08 01:46:16	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xf5bc43…
07-07 17:56:46	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x2d95b8…
07-07 17:51:50	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xaeb1a6…
07-07 17:51:29	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x7e4b04…
07-07 17:48:28	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x1eafb0…
07-07 17:48:16	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	22	22¢	$5	0x7132d7…
07-07 17:41:10	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x54d70e…
07-07 17:38:08	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x9dcc30…
07-07 17:32:01	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0xdc0db7…
07-07 16:47:31	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xa13734…
07-07 16:23:16	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x9fb948…
07-04 03:26:05	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x9b9ff2…
07-03 04:22:28	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x3c95fd…
07-03 01:08:14	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x814a9b…
07-03 01:08:05	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xe601be…
07-03 00:58:37	Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x4c5742…
07-03 00:31:37	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x340eaf…
07-03 00:31:29	Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x8b96c7…
07-02 15:45:31	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x8b1aab…
07-02 15:45:20	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xd08625…
07-02 15:45:05	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x5167a5…
07-02 15:45:01	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x5c1991…
07-02 15:44:47	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x3981e9…
07-02 15:44:40	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x9a282a…
07-02 15:44:29	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x657f29…
07-02 15:44:25	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xd92fbc…
07-02 15:44:20	Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x3327a6…
07-02 15:40:25	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	36¢	$10	0xcedd21…
07-01 16:30:08	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd9e331…
07-01 16:07:38	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x21ad89…
07-01 03:21:41	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x980696…
06-30 03:57:16	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x9945b0…
06-30 02:41:04	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xab5448…
06-29 18:57:55	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x33fe7e…
06-29 18:57:49	Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x7cbadd…
06-29 18:52:17	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x57a30d…
06-29 18:18:10	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xd3ae76…
06-29 18:01:38	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb37a6f…
06-29 17:30:34	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x812e15…
06-29 17:28:31	Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x532b78…
06-29 17:28:29	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc78473…
06-29 17:03:49	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xdaa245…
06-27 05:19:31	will hyperliquid reach 84 in june	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xa48b58…
06-27 04:53:02	Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x5975dd…
06-24 14:52:47	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xfb1958…
06-24 00:49:56	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x97c2c1…
06-24 00:49:50	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x50e13a…
06-23 05:03:07	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x27663f…
06-23 04:33:46	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd52c98…
06-23 04:33:05	Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb7f5a7…
06-23 04:32:47	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x574835…
06-23 01:23:25	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x0758af…
06-22 17:14:34	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xbc1c63…
06-22 17:13:35	will hyperliquid reach 80 in june	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x9d6522…
06-22 17:11:43	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf2b230…
06-22 17:11:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xcbe1b7…
06-21 04:50:01	Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xfd04ce…
06-18 04:19:14	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x74ec1e…
06-17 17:57:28	Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x3cd524…
06-17 17:57:14	Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xaf3121…
06-17 17:55:37	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x24d844…
06-17 17:23:44	Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd6a017…
06-17 17:23:40	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xeaedc5…
06-17 17:21:32	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0xd35033…
06-17 11:24:14	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x34c214…
06-17 11:24:08	Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$1	0xcd3af7…
06-17 11:23:23	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x8eed3a…
06-16 12:13:00	will hyperliquid reach 76 in june	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xac7c3c…
06-15 06:12:18	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xcf4896…
06-15 06:05:48	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd22a84…
06-15 02:31:48	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x813b9c…
06-13 12:32:40	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xaebcf4…
06-13 12:31:40	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x5303d2…
06-13 12:31:13	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xafeeed…
06-13 12:31:03	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa4fc12…
06-12 05:49:58	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x442b91…
06-12 03:39:55	Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x6d46f1…
06-12 03:39:45	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xe8b91f…
06-12 03:29:42	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xeb4f4a…
06-12 03:29:25	Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x43f556…
06-12 03:27:09	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xad7302…