Troubled-Triad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.62K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.77K

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

Trades

838

lifetime

Volume

$174.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$208

Open exposure

$11.7K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-01 11:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

76% 90% +$8,965

Politics

24% 76% -$1,332

Tech

0% 100% +$6

Crypto

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	+3,400	$2,142	99¢	$3.4K	+$1,222	08-14 17:37
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+3,896	$3,269	86¢	$3.3K	+$61	09-02 17:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+3,970	$2,974	82¢	$3.3K	+$301	08-29 11:46
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	+1,982	$1,566	88¢	$1.8K	+$188	07-22 16:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	97	$13.8K	11,150	11,150	+0	Yes	+$63	08-12 05:08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	37	$12.7K	7,141	7,141	+0	No	+$1,216	06-01 04:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	32	$11.2K	8,572	4,457	+4,115	No	+$454	06-25 11:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	8	$7.6K	4,261	4,261	+0	open	—	06-25 10:35
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	10	$6.6K	3,545	3,545	+0	No	+$248	02-02 21:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	22	$6.2K	2,711	4,129	-1,417	No	+$356	04-11 15:11
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	11	$5.5K	3,352	3,352	+0	No	+$837	01-31 04:58
will msft dip to 330 in july 2026	49	$5.3K	5,969	0	+5,969	No	+$626	07-14 13:39
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	20	$5.1K	5,224	1,200	+4,024	Yes	+$865	08-15 01:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$4.8K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	+$12	08-10 18:11
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	11	$4.6K	2,582	2,582	+0	No	+$508	03-30 13:41
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	5	$4.6K	5,811	0	+5,811	No	+$1,209	06-08 08:36
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	8	$4.5K	886	3,691	-2,804	No	+$4	06-18 09:23
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	8	$3.9K	3,112	3,112	+0	Yes	+$732	01-24 01:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	20	$3.8K	1,651	2,708	-1,057	No	+$166	04-13 08:02
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	4	$3.5K	1,100	2,900	-1,800	No	-$337	06-01 17:42
Iran leadership change by December 31?	5	$3.3K	3,896	0	+3,896	open	—	09-02 17:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	26	$3.1K	2,525	1,503	+1,023	No	+$183	04-09 07:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$3.0K	4,000	30	+3,970	open	—	08-29 11:46
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	6	$3.0K	3,778	0	+3,778	Yes	-$3,016	09-02 17:04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	12	$3.0K	7,082	7,082	+0	No	-$16	07-12 00:05
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	2	$2.9K	3,154	0	+3,154	No	+$268	09-02 17:04
crude oil all time high by march 31	16	$2.5K	1,313	1,313	+0	No	+$147	03-29 02:59
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	14	$2.4K	4,927	4,927	+0	No	+$330	08-22 14:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	5	$2.3K	2,427	0	+2,427	No	+$170	06-01 08:42
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2.1K	2,722	0	+2,722	No	+$572	08-14 12:18
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	6	$2.1K	3,400	0	+3,400	open	—	08-14 17:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	20	$2.1K	117	2,075	-1,958	No	-$83	05-14 07:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	2	$2.1K	1,059	1,058	+1	No	+$13	04-08 07:28
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	17	$1.9K	2,291	0	+2,291	No	+$383	02-22 17:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 11:49:26	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 3?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x39d4d2…
09-02 17:05:45	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	799	85¢	$679	0x84a121…
09-02 17:04:55	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	3,140	80¢	$2,500	0x41aefd…
09-02 17:04:09	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	947	95¢	$900	0x61a9b1…
08-29 20:07:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xf39ca3…
08-29 11:46:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0xb42c0d…
08-22 14:41:39	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	286	82¢	$234	0x70c5e2…
08-22 14:39:24	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	521	96¢	$500	0x97826d…
08-22 14:38:09	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	233	81¢	$188	0x201f28…
08-22 14:36:34	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	3,414	28¢	$957	0x7f550f…
08-22 03:03:36	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xfc19ac…
08-22 00:11:54	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xae0862…
08-21 16:00:48	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	114	79¢	$90	0x394f01…
08-21 15:42:22	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	264	34¢	$90	0x228d91…
08-21 13:02:24	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	2,206	90¢	$1,986	0x33da50…
08-21 10:41:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0xde3003…
08-21 08:46:57	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	336	34¢	$115	0x13abbb…
08-16 12:15:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x596ee4…
08-16 00:14:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x5716ef…
08-15 19:20:45	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	2,087	83¢	$1,732	0x3d658f…
08-15 16:47:34	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	310	20¢	$62	0x15d503…
08-15 15:51:06	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x943346…
08-15 09:10:58	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	300	19¢	$56	0xf101ec…
08-15 08:57:30	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$5	0x97f2d5…
08-15 08:49:18	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x50c133…
08-15 08:49:13	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0x1dc19f…
08-15 02:48:45	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	240	21¢	$51	0x022a94…
08-15 01:38:25	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x416a1b…
08-15 01:27:19	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	42	80¢	$33	0xf4467f…
08-15 01:27:19	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xf3aaa2…
08-14 22:47:45	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	84	80¢	$68	0x425c00…
08-14 22:47:27	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0x2a64ec…
08-14 22:46:42	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x86d6bf…
08-14 22:46:40	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	870	80¢	$696	0xffc14c…
08-14 22:45:57	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x299c18…
08-14 22:28:40	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x6c5ccb…
08-14 22:28:40	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	589	80¢	$471	0x23ca21…
08-14 22:28:39	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x778a97…
08-14 22:28:39	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0x6ea13d…
08-14 17:37:31	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x2c0995…
08-14 17:37:24	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	99	63¢	$62	0xd4aab3…
08-14 17:30:55	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x2ab492…
08-14 16:17:45	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	22	81¢	$18	0x9049ee…
08-14 15:39:00	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	278	18¢	$50	0xa082fb…
08-14 15:33:07	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x9568ec…
08-14 15:33:07	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	1,160	81¢	$940	0x60ff5a…
08-14 15:32:48	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x49d073…
08-14 15:32:40	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	250	63¢	$158	0x23eaea…
08-14 15:04:40	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	3,000	63¢	$1,890	0x66dfa0…
08-14 13:56:21	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	60	21¢	$13	0x148b4a…
08-14 13:49:34	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,198	76¢	$910	0x7a47e2…
08-14 13:46:10	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x71150f…
08-14 13:31:42	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	63	21¢	$13	0x0b2e8f…
08-14 13:30:25	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	4,538	21¢	$939	0x4a5b21…
08-14 13:16:10	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x3dc3c3…
08-14 12:45:12	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	47	63¢	$30	0x36f863…
08-14 12:18:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	2,722	79¢	$2,150	0xb37475…
08-14 11:32:06	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	No	BUY	55	86¢	$48	0xf5dbc5…
08-12 05:08:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	313	62¢	$194	0xa860c8…
08-12 05:06:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	48	62¢	$30	0xc1548f…
08-12 05:06:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	31	62¢	$19	0xc4e342…
08-12 05:06:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x40a8ce…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	161	62¢	$100	0xffbb62…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0xf6b476…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xcc5f7e…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x8ac520…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	34	62¢	$21	0x782857…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	76	62¢	$47	0x6c64a3…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x5656a4…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$13	0x34a060…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	45	62¢	$28	0x334f4b…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0x284510…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x199433…
08-12 05:06:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	500	62¢	$310	0x09f971…
08-12 04:50:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0xaafb3c…
08-12 04:49:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x798da7…
08-12 04:48:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	285	62¢	$177	0xc7a761…
08-12 04:48:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	285	62¢	$177	0xa4c898…
08-12 04:48:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	440	62¢	$273	0xe66ada…
08-12 04:30:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	56	62¢	$35	0x0d2f64…
08-12 04:26:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0xfb0d7f…
08-12 04:26:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xbf5501…
08-12 04:19:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xef48d9…
08-12 04:07:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x1b091a…
08-12 04:01:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	410	62¢	$254	0x4d502f…
08-12 03:59:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	410	62¢	$254	0x49f9ac…
08-12 03:57:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x0ac94e…
08-12 03:44:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0xcc59b3…
08-12 03:43:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	62¢	$3	0x42aac2…
08-12 03:43:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0xf5b0db…
08-12 03:43:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x7e6352…
08-12 03:43:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x6f339d…
08-12 03:43:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0x6eb8d7…
08-12 03:33:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x6408d0…
08-12 03:00:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xc59002…
08-12 02:58:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x5cb378…
08-12 02:56:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	86	62¢	$53	0x0b1887…
08-12 02:56:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0xc93691…
08-12 02:56:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	999	62¢	$619	0xb1c414…
08-12 02:47:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x8b5b2d…