Stiff-Armpit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$562

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

1,740

Trades

3,254

lifetime

Volume

$23.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-02

last 10-25 21:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 80% -$316

Other

25% 53% -$221

Politics

8% 50% +$104

Sports

2% 46% -$130

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-4	-$1	18¢	$-1	+$0	05-05 23:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	8	$183	133	133	+0	Yes	+$43	03-26 16:51
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	11	$182	253	142	+111	Yes	+$2	03-11 15:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$136	112	112	+0	Yes	-$4	04-08 00:48
will iran strike uae again in march	5	$128	70	70	+0	Yes	+$12	04-06 01:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$119	108	76	+32	Yes	+$26	04-08 00:48
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	10	$110	169	0	+169	Yes	+$59	04-07 22:20
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	3	$101	83	83	+0	No	+$61	03-31 00:37
lol nip ig1 2026 04 08 game1	3	$99	63	62	+1	Invictus Gaming	+$26	04-08 09:58
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	6	$92	325	0	+325	Max Holloway	-$92	07-12 02:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-19 22:15 UTC	2	$87	48	48	+1	Down	+$8	04-19 22:30
bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 9pm et	2	$83	44	43	+0	Down	+$4	04-23 02:17
bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 6pm et	2	$83	43	43	+0	Up	+$3	04-20 23:55
bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 8am et	2	$80	40	40	+0	Up	+$0	04-20 13:00
lol bro2 kt 2026 04 12 game handicap home 1pt5	2	$79	51	50	+1	KT Rolster	+$22	04-12 11:32
will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	5	$76	279	20	+259	No	-$66	04-07 02:35
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	93	$74	871	871	+0	No	-$6	04-01 16:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-23 00:45 UTC	2	$70	45	45	+0	Down	-$9	04-23 01:00
bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 2pm et	2	$69	45	45	+0	Down	-$11	04-23 18:59
dota2 gl heroic 2026 04 22	3	$69	46	46	+1	Heroic	+$23	04-22 10:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-23 13:45 UTC	2	$68	46	46	+0	Down	-$12	04-23 13:59
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 90 114	9	$68	640	77	+563	No	-$49	03-11 14:43
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$67	50	45	+5	Yes	+$3	04-21 18:19
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina	5	$67	54	54	+0	Elina Svitolina	+$23	05-16 21:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-22 03:00 UTC	2	$66	44	43	+0	Up	-$14	04-22 03:14
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 15	7	$65	107	107	+0	Yes	-$5	03-06 19:50
lol ns dnf 2026 04 05	9	$65	47	46	+1	Nongshim Red Force	+$12	04-05 09:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	6	$64	102	102	+0	Yes	+$4	04-07 22:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-22 21:45 UTC	2	$64	45	44	+0	Up	-$16	04-22 21:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-22 00:45 UTC	2	$63	44	44	+0	Up	-$17	04-22 00:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	11	$63	135	54	+81	Yes	-$11	04-19 19:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 21:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x16e654…
10-25 21:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x768e00…
10-25 21:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x9a957e…
10-25 20:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x3f77ed…
10-25 20:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf48383…
10-25 20:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0f2322…
10-25 20:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xcc7ce0…
10-25 20:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x58c462…
10-25 20:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x5ba024…
10-25 20:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb3bae4…
10-25 20:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa6c6b4…
10-25 20:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xe27d64…
10-25 19:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x94a38f…
10-25 19:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5df60f…
10-25 19:21:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc2980d…
10-25 19:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4aa7f4…
10-25 19:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x2fd208…
10-25 19:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa6e7ee…
10-25 19:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xab54a8…
10-25 18:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf81c61…
10-25 18:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc5202a…
10-25 18:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xe8e2c5…
10-25 18:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc26c7a…
10-25 18:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xece488…
10-25 18:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x86c364…
10-25 17:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xa9cc85…
10-25 17:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5e3e71…
10-25 17:35:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xd279eb…
10-25 17:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x03aadc…
10-25 17:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xdb987b…
10-25 02:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x20ad31…
10-25 02:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe010cb…
10-25 01:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xb8a77f…
10-25 01:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x6bf64b…
10-25 01:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0x28e5e1…
10-25 01:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x82cb3e…
10-25 01:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x61c8a6…
10-25 01:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x2f689f…
10-25 01:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	SELL	11	32¢	$3	0x5eb11a…
10-25 01:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x7eb010…
10-25 01:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xdc2074…
10-25 01:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xb4cc62…
10-25 00:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	11	56¢	$6	0x831b02…
10-25 00:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x48b41f…
10-25 00:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	11	29¢	$3	0x742b2e…
10-25 00:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x529a9d…
10-25 00:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0xe18bde…
10-25 00:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x04bca1…
10-25 00:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xd473ba…
10-25 00:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbac292…
10-25 00:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x4dc3d5…
10-25 00:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x84eadf…
10-25 00:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x9471de…
10-25 00:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x46470b…
10-25 00:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa42957…
10-25 00:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x9a1d49…
10-25 00:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xecba1c…
10-25 00:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x561f9e…
10-25 00:05:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xec6007…
10-24 23:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc60bac…
10-24 23:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	SELL	11	62¢	$7	0x1752c8…
10-24 23:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb9d7dd…
10-24 23:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	61¢	$0	0x92669e…
10-24 23:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0x17c146…
10-24 23:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x330edd…
10-24 23:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0xd1eac4…
10-24 23:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1298c1…
10-24 22:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	11	56¢	$6	0xfb2372…
10-24 22:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xbedd4c…
10-24 22:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xf14e28…
10-24 22:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7cc326…
10-24 22:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x1057b5…
10-24 22:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x79c111…
10-24 22:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xabbbcd…
10-24 22:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x42738e…
10-24 22:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x1c1271…
10-24 22:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x3b6907…
10-24 22:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	86¢	$8	0x85e638…
10-24 22:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x577b04…
10-24 22:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xddd378…
10-24 22:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x50febf…
10-24 21:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x0c523e…
10-24 21:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x198da2…
10-24 21:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0xb81fab…
10-24 21:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x715c16…
10-24 21:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0xb49378…
10-24 21:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf019ea…
10-24 21:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x013cdd…
10-24 21:25:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xa3fbc8…
10-24 21:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	84¢	$9	0xbb2bbf…
10-24 21:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd26999…
10-24 21:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xe72e01…
10-24 21:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb02ef4…
10-24 21:05:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xc7fce6…
10-24 21:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xfc691e…
10-24 20:56:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0xda43a7…
10-24 20:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xfa9609…
10-24 20:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x5647c7…
10-24 20:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x4b161e…
10-24 20:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0x8b60fa…