Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$477

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

44.1%

Resolved

197

Trades

667

lifetime

Volume

$5.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

1 position

First seen

2026-09-04

last 11-05 00:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Other

69% 34% -$415

Politics

19% 41% -$27

Tech

10% 31% -$23

Crypto

2% 50% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will missouri enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes		+100	$42	18¢	$18	-$24	10-01 03:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	9	$116	100	80	+20	open	—	11-04 15:12
Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?	8	$88	80	80	+0	open	—	10-11 01:46
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	5	$85	65	65	+0	open	—	09-18 02:09
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30?	2	$83	50	50	+0	No	+$0	09-09 01:12
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	4	$76	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	09-19 05:45
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in September?	8	$71	100	100	+0	Yes	+$3	09-14 19:32
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	4	$61	40	40	+0	open	—	09-29 17:33
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.0 and 40.5 million views on day 5?	7	$59	59	59	+0	Yes	-$1	09-17 12:38
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?	5	$49	40	40	+0	Yes	+$4	09-26 18:32
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.5 and 41.0 million views on day 5?	5	$48	40	40	+0	No	-$4	09-17 02:07
KOSPI all-time high before 2028?	3	$47	50	50	+0	open	—	10-01 16:30
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	5	$46	40	40	+0	Yes	-$3	09-26 03:52
will missouri enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	2	$42	100	0	+100	open	—	10-01 03:12
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	4	$42	40	40	+0	open	—	10-16 18:22
Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 58 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	6	$41	40	40	+0	No	+$5	10-10 09:54
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	5	$41	60	60	+0	Yes	-$18	09-30 05:50
Will Marcio Bittar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?	4	$41	40	40	+0	No	+$0	09-08 04:34
Will Brendan Blomeley win the next Clarence mayoral election?	6	$40	40	40	+0	No	+$2	10-20 03:06
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	5	$39	40	40	+0	No	+$1	10-19 21:55
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	4	$39	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-09 14:10
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	7	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	11-04 13:47
Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?	5	$39	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	09-09 06:36
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 16?	6	$39	79	0	+79	Yes	-$39	09-16 12:12
Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by September 30?	5	$39	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	09-11 11:27
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	5	$38	35	35	+0	No	+$3	09-23 04:09
Will Onyeka Oshionwu win the next Göttingen mayoral election?	4	$37	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	09-12 03:27
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?	4	$37	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	09-09 07:37
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	2	$36	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-08 17:32
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05?	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	10-02 05:18
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?	2	$35	50	50	+0	No	+$5	09-11 12:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 00:29:43	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xbbb91c…
11-04 22:15:03	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x741967…
11-04 15:12:00	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x2b2087…
11-04 14:39:36	Shapiro's Democratic nomination odds dip to 4% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xcff678…
11-04 14:15:24	Shapiro's Democratic nomination odds dip to 4% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x49be94…
11-04 14:05:46	Buttigieg's Democratic nomination odds dip to 4% by December 31?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xe4653a…
11-04 13:47:07	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xc6df75…
11-04 10:08:04	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x95190a…
11-04 10:07:40	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x59d0c1…
11-04 06:51:04	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x9965ac…
11-04 06:10:55	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x77522b…
11-04 03:58:49	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x0b06b0…
11-04 02:25:00	Rubio's Republican nomination odds hit 30% by December 31?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x4caf96…
11-04 01:55:34	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x19ee8d…
11-04 01:34:55	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xc04e05…
11-04 01:26:34	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x89c22f…
11-03 20:20:13	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x58516d…
11-03 16:40:34	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xf2d8d4…
11-03 16:28:48	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x12b43c…
11-03 15:22:22	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x1a5837…
11-03 10:06:39	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	16	72¢	$11	0x021d05…
11-03 07:56:12	Will US gas hit $3.95 (Low) in November?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xfca1b8…
11-03 05:21:25	Will US gas hit $4.25 (High) in November?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x1a722a…
11-03 05:02:43	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x9c9e8c…
11-02 23:21:45	Will US gas hit $3.95 (Low) in November?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xec1be0…
11-02 21:26:40	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xfd446d…
11-02 21:24:51	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x0e1e69…
11-02 19:15:22	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x4f093c…
11-02 19:13:04	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	SELL	47	70¢	$33	0x6d4dd4…
11-02 19:13:04	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	SELL	25	70¢	$18	0x3acd77…
11-02 18:48:46	Will US gas hit $4.25 (High) in November?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x3acff9…
11-02 15:41:22	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the March interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x1994fe…
11-02 14:54:22	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the March interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x0c660b…
11-02 14:18:34	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the March interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x69da06…
11-02 13:37:37	Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xaf4720…
11-02 13:15:10	Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xa5e9a0…
11-02 04:00:39	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x5c05ad…
11-01 17:41:31	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x30674a…
11-01 16:23:30	Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xeca62e…
11-01 16:10:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x3e2dc5…
11-01 08:50:25	Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xab807e…
11-01 06:21:10	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x32e57f…
10-31 22:39:21	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x06b796…
10-31 19:53:06	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xb7575c…
10-31 17:02:28	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xfdcdd5…
10-31 17:02:28	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x091b2d…
10-31 16:01:55	Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of October 26?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9374f7…
10-31 08:25:51	Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xedae23…
10-31 05:19:15	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6c4e49…
10-31 04:58:58	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xaa89e0…
10-30 08:30:55	SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x6b6b74…
10-30 08:18:57	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0x9d1526…
10-29 23:12:27	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x53ad2a…
10-29 22:49:45	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x78f3de…
10-29 17:43:01	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xe6ba05…
10-29 13:13:07	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x1151fc…
10-29 11:50:37	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xc81bf2…
10-29 10:58:02	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x234f0c…
10-29 10:40:10	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xab22fa…
10-28 20:54:07	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x78a788…
10-28 19:04:41	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x352576…
10-27 22:24:32	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xbab561…
10-27 21:33:50	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x8c0bc2…
10-27 13:03:41	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xf42507…
10-27 08:33:47	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xbea6ee…
10-27 08:13:15	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	No	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0x50aa3c…
10-27 03:47:12	Will "I Play Rocky" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x347600…
10-27 02:38:03	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x201b6b…
10-27 01:47:00	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x03f2e0…
10-26 19:16:09	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2700 on October 27?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x7cc2b5…
10-26 17:48:47	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xa23416…
10-26 15:08:02	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xe88580…
10-25 21:11:45	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x85502a…
10-25 21:00:29	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x100008…
10-25 13:30:23	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x831aa8…
10-25 12:59:38	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x01ddd7…
10-25 10:32:24	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x985bf2…
10-25 03:10:39	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x3ec4d2…
10-24 21:00:09	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0x9bc7cb…
10-24 20:59:06	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x9847a6…
10-24 17:01:03	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x16c03f…
10-24 13:39:27	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x61cc75…
10-24 13:00:15	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0xbf9123…
10-24 13:00:09	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x0e9148…
10-23 21:49:57	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x7db486…
10-23 20:04:23	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Yes	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x1353a3…
10-23 14:28:09	Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x450031…
10-23 00:50:20	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x3fc2ff…
10-22 22:58:29	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x4c0b1d…
10-22 21:39:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x3fd547…
10-22 21:06:36	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x6f16b8…
10-22 20:42:06	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x793e88…
10-22 20:36:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xada249…
10-22 12:50:09	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x500d33…
10-22 12:49:08	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x6ce2d4…
10-22 10:54:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0x964dbb…
10-22 03:33:51	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xc3c38b…
10-21 16:39:35	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x16e2fe…
10-21 13:13:14	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0xdae9d6…
10-21 12:25:51	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xfed315…