Muddy-Substance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

30.3%

Resolved

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$1.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$12

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 01:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

43% 100% +$40

Other

39% 0% $-23

Sports

17% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	+38	$10	16¢	$6	$-4	06-01 23:27
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	+176	$6	2¢	$4	$-2	06-01 23:24
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	+23	$5	8¢	$2	$-3	06-01 23:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$186	191	117	+74	open	—	03-09 19:38
will coca cola run an ad during super bowl lx	4	$168	242	49	+193	open	—	01-21 05:04
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	5	$89	2,691	873	+1,818	open	—	03-30 00:05
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	3	$73	107	36	+71	open	—	01-25 04:10
will the doomsday clock move closer to midnight	5	$67	95	10	+85	open	—	01-09 00:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$62	862	216	+647	open	—	03-15 01:31
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	2	$35	100	0	+100	open	—	03-01 04:10
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$35	40	40	+0	open	—	01-20 01:20
nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	3	$33	400	100	+300	open	—	01-18 10:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	3	$33	458	0	+458	open	—	04-16 21:08
ucl int ars1 2026 01 20 ars1	2	$29	18	18	+0	open	—	01-20 22:11
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$23	145	0	+145	open	—	02-18 21:45
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	2	$22	50	0	+50	open	—	01-07 22:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$22	126	5	+121	open	—	03-30 00:04
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$18	621	0	+621	No	$-18	03-05 18:59
will another mrbeast video get 100m week 1 views by january 31	4	$17	158	20	+138	open	—	01-25 04:12
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	1	$15	41	0	+41	open	—	01-01 18:20
will mrbeast hit 109 billion views by january 31	1	$13	20	0	+20	open	—	01-01 18:18
bitcoin above 80k on february 4	12	$12	350	0	+350	open	—	02-04 05:34
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$11	393	0	+393	open	—	01-31 01:44
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	4	$10	150	0	+150	open	—	02-09 02:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$10	50	0	+50	Yes	+$40	03-05 04:55
aws service disrupted by march 31	1	$10	60	0	+60	open	—	02-18 20:21
will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	1	$10	29	0	+29	open	—	02-28 08:18
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	38	0	+38	open	—	06-01 23:27
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$10	38	0	+38	open	—	03-15 01:31
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$9	265	0	+265	open	—	02-08 23:31
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$8	147	0	+147	open	—	01-26 11:39
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$8	481	0	+481	open	—	01-31 01:45
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	1	$7	700	0	+700	open	—	03-30 00:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 01:33:37	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	28	9¢	$2	0xd19265…
06-08 01:33:25	gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x264e51…
06-01 23:30:15	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x9f08cc…
06-01 23:27:43	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x08d804…
06-01 23:24:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	176	3¢	$6	0x7a2c8d…
05-28 03:57:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x5ac475…
05-28 03:22:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	241	1¢	$3	0xece402…
04-16 21:08:30	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	284	5¢	$13	0x427312…
04-16 21:08:10	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	118	4¢	$5	0x1f0bfd…
03-30 00:05:02	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x1c2257…
03-30 00:04:44	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	700	1¢	$7	0x20a3f3…
03-30 00:04:02	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	121	12¢	$15	0x440e98…
03-30 00:03:56	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x45dfd2…
03-19 08:40:01	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x9d31c8…
03-15 01:31:43	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xc8d22e…
03-15 01:31:17	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	SELL	216	5¢	$12	0xcab330…
03-15 00:11:11	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	SELL	175	4¢	$6	0x3056a4…
03-15 00:10:59	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	SELL	699	4¢	$26	0x462bca…
03-14 21:44:39	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	862	6¢	$50	0xbb3c51…
03-12 12:13:01	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0xa3683b…
03-12 12:12:23	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	1,397	4¢	$50	0xaf314c…
03-11 04:00:21	btc updown 5m 1773201300	Up	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xdcd70a…
03-10 21:57:45	will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1 122	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd0bdd2…
03-09 19:38:55	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	74	3¢	$2	0x7c408f…
03-09 19:38:43	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	117	97¢	$114	0x0e9459…
03-05 18:59:59	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0xd63a3c…
03-05 18:59:13	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	517	3¢	$15	0xa73c9d…
03-05 18:39:05	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x456d4c…
03-05 04:55:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x383d74…
03-05 04:55:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x373e2e…
03-05 04:54:55	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	82	3¢	$2	0xaeaf24…
03-05 03:03:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x68a714…
03-04 03:28:51	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$3	0xc076a0…
03-02 20:22:33	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x00a2cc…
03-01 04:21:47	khamenei seen in public by march 14 884 469 913	Yes	BUY	971	0¢	$1	0x0d0ce2…
03-01 04:18:31	khamenei seen in public by march 14 884 469 913	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xcec048…
03-01 04:15:37	khamenei seen in public by march 14 884 469 913	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0xb4f717…
03-01 04:10:15	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	No	BUY	69	35¢	$24	0x6300c1…
03-01 04:08:23	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x55546b…
03-01 04:06:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xde95f7…
03-01 04:04:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	410	0¢	$1	0xe591c5…
02-28 08:55:11	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	97	5¢	$5	0xd3aa30…
02-28 08:18:53	iran strike on us military by february 28	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3cc52f…
02-28 08:18:05	will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x383361…
02-28 08:17:47	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x04df56…
02-22 19:53:38	us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	Yes	BUY	170	3¢	$5	0x8aaaab…
02-18 21:46:12	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x037290…
02-18 21:45:54	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x73037b…
02-18 20:21:02	aws service disrupted by march 31	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x983ee4…
02-18 17:50:02	Will the US strike another country first?	Yes	BUY	329	0¢	$1	0xecc1ae…
02-18 17:49:48	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xddd75a…
02-18 17:48:06	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	82	4¢	$3	0x782a72…
02-18 17:47:06	will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x49cbce…
02-18 17:45:28	bitcoin above 60k on february 21	No	BUY	209	2¢	$5	0xd9c621…
02-09 02:41:33	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	117	7¢	$8	0x945fcb…
02-09 02:41:29	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xd0ec22…
02-09 02:41:29	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xc6def1…
02-09 02:41:29	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Patriots	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x109564…
02-09 01:24:41	bad bunny wears a dress at the super bowl	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x0904d8…
02-09 01:24:13	bad bunny wears a dress at the super bowl	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x348d4e…
02-08 23:31:57	us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	Yes	BUY	265	3¢	$9	0x992b21…
02-06 04:00:49	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xa5fa95…
02-06 03:59:59	us strikes iran by february 7 2026	Yes	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0xf767f7…
02-06 03:59:49	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xc205ac…
02-04 05:34:36	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	94	3¢	$3	0x404af7…
02-04 05:34:12	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0xb69472…
02-04 05:33:40	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x69dea6…
02-04 05:33:38	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xee3a15…
02-04 05:33:06	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	88	3¢	$3	0xc49765…
02-04 05:32:04	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	81	3¢	$3	0x25fb6e…
02-04 05:31:42	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xcb3ce4…
02-04 05:31:32	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x026ef8…
02-04 05:31:30	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xa9cce1…
02-04 05:28:22	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x668440…
02-04 05:28:18	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x30e0e1…
02-04 05:26:34	bitcoin above 80k on february 4	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0xf7e4db…
01-31 01:45:00	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0xe05c90…
01-31 01:44:42	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	393	3¢	$11	0x786d05…
01-30 01:25:10	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	218	1¢	$3	0x614341…
01-26 11:42:25	bitcoin above 100k on january 27	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbe6df4…
01-26 11:41:27	bitcoin above 98k on january 26	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4ff3e1…
01-26 11:39:03	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe9cee8…
01-25 04:12:46	will another mrbeast video get 100m week 1 views by january 31	Yes	BUY	138	7¢	$10	0x1ae255…
01-25 04:10:56	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	Yes	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xa07cb2…
01-25 02:41:00	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x30b96f…
01-25 02:13:14	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	No	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0x734c08…
01-23 06:38:12	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	Yes	BUY	47	13¢	$6	0x1c2246…
01-21 05:04:44	will coca cola run an ad during super bowl lx	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x258023…
01-20 23:56:44	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	Yes	BUY	625	1¢	$5	0xb2af7a…
01-20 22:11:18	ucl int ars1 2026 01 20 ars1	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xf10d6e…
01-20 20:12:16	ucl int ars1 2026 01 20 ars1	Yes	BUY	18	63¢	$11	0xe8ceb3…
01-20 01:20:02	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	55¢	$22	0x66de15…
01-18 21:49:24	acn sen mar 2026 01 18 sen	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xabbf7b…
01-18 21:31:22	will another mrbeast video get 100m week 1 views by january 31	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xa38a2b…
01-18 10:11:58	nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x489031…
01-09 05:44:10	will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x81b409…
01-09 00:25:18	will the doomsday clock move closer to midnight	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xddff3e…
01-09 00:25:18	will the doomsday clock move closer to midnight	Yes	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0xddff3e…
01-08 21:30:06	will the doomsday clock move closer to midnight	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x71dfde…
01-08 18:26:14	will the doomsday clock move closer to midnight	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x71a59c…