Watchful-Geography — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.6%

Resolved

376

Trades

1,166

lifetime

Volume

$3.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 05-11 22:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 81% -$19

Politics

6% 78% -$14

Sports

1% 44% -$1

Other

0% 50% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-11).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 14:45 UTC	8	$85	47	47	+0	Up	+$4	02-08 15:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 04:00 UTC	12	$72	48	48	+0	Down	-$14	02-08 04:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	7	$68	45	45	+0	No	$0	03-07 05:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 06:00 UTC	18	$63	58	45	+13	Down	-$7	02-06 06:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 03:15 UTC	8	$54	28	28	+0	Up	+$2	02-08 03:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 15:15 UTC	2	$53	27	27	+0	Down	+$1	02-08 15:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 23:45 UTC	5	$44	23	23	+0	Up	+$0	02-08 00:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 05:45 UTC	3	$42	21	21	+0	Up	+$0	02-06 06:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 05:00 UTC	2	$41	22	21	+0	Up	+$1	02-08 05:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 04:45 UTC	7	$41	21	21	+0	Up	+$1	02-08 05:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 03:00 UTC	8	$35	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	02-05 03:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 05:00 UTC	2	$35	18	18	+0	Up	+$1	02-06 05:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 14:45 UTC	10	$33	30	20	+10	Down	+$3	02-11 14:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	6	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$1	03-06 23:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 06:30 UTC	2	$32	16	16	+0	Down	+$0	02-06 06:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 17:15 UTC	6	$31	36	11	+25	Down	-$23	02-08 17:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 07:15 UTC	3	$31	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	02-04 07:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 03:45 UTC	5	$30	32	0	+32	Down	+$2	02-08 03:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	7	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	03-06 23:08
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 08:00 UTC	3	$28	16	14	+2	Down	$0	02-09 08:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 07:00 UTC	5	$28	15	15	+0	Down	+$2	02-04 07:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$27	18	13	+5	Yes	-$3	04-04 04:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 16:45 UTC	1	$27	28	0	+28	Down	+$1	02-08 16:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 16:30 UTC	1	$27	27	0	+27	Down	+$0	02-08 16:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 03:30 UTC	5	$27	29	0	+29	Down	+$2	02-08 03:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 15:30 UTC	2	$26	27	0	+27	Up	+$1	02-08 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 05:00 UTC	4	$25	13	13	+0	Up	+$0	02-13 05:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:15 UTC	8	$25	15	15	+0	Up	+$3	02-11 15:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 01:45 UTC	4	$25	13	13	+0	Down	+$1	02-24 02:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 11:30 UTC	4	$25	13	13	+0	Down	+$1	02-07 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 22:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x9a3f13…
05-11 22:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xd357ef…
05-11 22:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x381cce…
05-11 22:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x152059…
05-11 22:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0e3447…
05-11 22:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4a95c5…
05-11 22:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x9e524f…
05-11 22:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x811d90…
05-11 22:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xb5abe5…
05-11 22:11:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x6609a5…
05-11 22:10:59	ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland	Scotland	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x4c8000…
05-11 22:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x2dcbda…
05-11 22:09:37	New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xb228f4…
05-11 22:09:35	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x0a7cee…
05-11 22:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdedf0c…
05-11 22:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd8deca…
05-11 22:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc8796f…
05-11 22:02:51	ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland	Scotland	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x254b3f…
05-11 22:02:32	New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x591892…
05-11 22:02:13	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf35cbd…
05-11 22:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc767e1…
05-11 21:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x18ac35…
05-11 21:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x5a8f70…
05-11 01:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xef789a…
05-11 01:34:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x300007…
05-11 01:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xeddbce…
05-11 01:30:34	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0x80b689…
05-11 01:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2bda02…
05-10 23:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x5c3240…
05-10 23:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcd0c80…
05-10 23:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0xd1b1a2…
05-10 23:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xed7dda…
05-10 23:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x13a5c1…
05-10 23:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x0ba612…
05-10 23:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xa4f58d…
05-10 23:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x04934b…
05-10 23:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xed2e01…
05-10 23:25:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x525ee5…
05-10 23:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x513be9…
05-10 23:17:34	Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x2fe065…
05-10 23:17:00	Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x099144…
05-10 23:10:06	Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x39c431…
05-10 23:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x8df968…
05-10 23:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfd069f…
05-10 23:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0xb359b1…
05-10 23:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x43a982…
05-10 23:04:37	Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x51f94e…
05-10 23:04:09	Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x87e763…
05-10 23:03:35	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb66e9b…
05-10 23:02:20	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x5e30c2…
05-10 17:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7aadda…
05-08 21:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x6572d9…
05-08 21:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xaf84a3…
05-08 21:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xa22db9…
05-08 21:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf5de9e…
05-08 21:14:49	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6068d2…
05-08 21:11:04	Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4fe0cc…
05-08 21:10:51	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Lorenzo Musetti	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf439ce…
05-08 21:10:43	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x517e1f…
05-08 21:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa14811…
05-01 05:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xde089b…
05-01 05:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x81d7e2…
05-01 05:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdca6be…
05-01 05:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xec607f…
05-01 05:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x09d542…
05-01 05:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0942ab…
05-01 05:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x310550…
05-01 05:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x329230…
05-01 05:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x5fde94…
05-01 05:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x2866e3…
05-01 04:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x717db8…
05-01 04:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x5a65ca…
05-01 04:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6ce70c…
05-01 04:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x26b341…
04-20 14:43:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 14:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x349d18…
04-20 14:42:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe78bed…
04-20 14:42:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc6fe3e…
04-18 23:05:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 23:00 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb35517…
04-18 23:04:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x9cefed…
04-18 20:48:48	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xbbdd41…
04-04 20:29:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6059ba…
04-04 20:29:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:25 UTC	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x38f848…
04-04 20:28:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6db339…
04-04 20:26:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xdc4ec2…
04-04 20:24:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x619540…
04-04 20:24:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc92ff1…
04-04 20:23:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf07aec…
04-04 20:20:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6682e9…
04-04 20:19:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1f670a…
04-04 20:19:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xa1f218…
04-04 20:14:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x7fd9d8…
04-04 20:13:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd4d1dd…
04-04 20:10:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:05 UTC	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x585f90…
04-04 20:09:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x0c0695…
04-04 20:09:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x061bf8…
04-04 19:55:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 19:50 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe348fb…
04-04 19:52:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x263303…
04-04 19:52:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x7615d2…
04-04 19:49:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x852987…
04-04 19:48:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x6c39dd…