Fortunate-Kickoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$128

Hit rate

79.3%

Resolved

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$626.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$4.93K

Open exposure

$4.87K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-05 17:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

50% 58% +$18,945

Other

49% 38% -$3,108

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?	Yes		+11,739	$5,000	42¢	$4.9K	-$128	11-05 17:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	24	$108.7K	59,271	59,271	+0	No	+$8,678	05-31 17:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	27	$86.0K	54,076	54,076	+0	No	+$19,962	05-26 20:46
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$55.8K	33,925	33,925	+0	No	+$8,106	04-26 02:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	2	$48.2K	28,769	28,769	+0	No	+$8,193	09-25 04:32
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$38.1K	28,179	28,178	+0	Yes	+$1,706	03-29 05:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$26.5K	17,119	17,119	+0	No	+$6,451	03-27 12:45
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	2	$25.4K	13,793	13,793	+0	open	—	11-05 17:21
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$24.8K	15,013	15,013	+0	Yes	+$4,848	04-12 19:18
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$23.0K	12,987	12,987	+0	Yes	+$2,974	11-04 04:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$21.5K	20,744	20,314	+430	No	+$1,497	04-11 18:18
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$19.3K	13,158	13,158	+0	Yes	-$666	03-06 07:39
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$18.5K	0	18,701	-18,701	Yes	-$168	01-25 20:16
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	19	$14.2K	9,277	9,277	+0	Yes	+$4,185	05-04 06:09
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$13.5K	10,518	10,518	+0	Yes	+$7,497	02-28 08:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$13.3K	13,812	13,659	+152	Yes	-$6,524	04-14 19:09
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	2	$11.5K	16,043	16,043	+0	No	-$8,528	11-04 01:48
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	3	$11.4K	14,832	14,832	+0	No	-$8,631	09-22 16:22
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$11.1K	11,976	11,976	+0	Yes	-$8,856	05-31 21:52
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$11.1K	6,173	6,173	+0	Yes	+$1,136	01-31 09:26
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	1	$10.0K	19,573	0	+19,573	Yes	-$10,000	07-20 01:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	2	$7.6K	9,991	9,791	+200	Yes	-$2,163	04-08 18:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?	1	$5.0K	11,739	0	+11,739	open	—	11-05 17:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	1	$5.0K	6,923	0	+6,923	Yes	-$5,000	06-19 06:20
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	1	$5.0K	8,370	0	+8,370	Yes	-$5,000	06-16 03:37
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	3	$4.1K	8,886	8,886	+0	Yes	-$1,708	05-04 04:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$2.7K	21,074	20,312	+762	No	-$1,377	04-14 19:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$1.6K	0	3,960	-3,960	No	+$1,647	01-02 08:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$1.4K	5,673	5,673	+0	No	-$586	04-08 03:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$1.2K	9,657	9,657	+0	No	-$836	03-31 14:21
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	1	$1.0K	6,581	0	+6,581	Yes	-$1,000	07-20 01:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 17:32:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?	Yes	BUY	11,739	43¢	$5,000	0xf689b7…
11-05 17:21:40	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	13,793	97¢	$13,352	0x3418e3…
11-04 04:59:13	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	12,987	100¢	$12,974	0x73a59a…
11-04 01:55:04	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	13,793	87¢	$12,000	0xf386e4…
11-04 01:48:16	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16,043	9¢	$1,472	0xa43e98…
11-03 10:05:49	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16,043	62¢	$10,000	0xd18f16…
11-03 10:04:22	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12,987	77¢	$10,000	0x4c6a5a…
09-25 04:32:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	SELL	28,769	98¢	$28,193	0xe9c22b…
09-22 16:22:40	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	SELL	13,897	10¢	$1,350	0xabcd19…
09-22 16:22:40	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	SELL	935	2¢	$19	0x76ce08…
09-20 21:29:38	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	14,832	67¢	$10,000	0xc24ed4…
09-11 08:39:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	BUY	28,769	70¢	$20,000	0xc8482f…
07-20 01:35:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	6,581	15¢	$1,000	0x5a23a8…
07-20 01:35:18	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	19,573	51¢	$10,000	0x6b7041…
06-19 06:20:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	6,923	72¢	$5,000	0xac75a0…
06-16 03:37:46	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	8,370	60¢	$5,000	0x96a691…
05-31 21:52:40	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	11,976	10¢	$1,144	0x79b8ff…
05-31 18:09:26	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	11,976	83¢	$10,000	0xb08642…
05-31 17:26:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11,099	99¢	$10,988	0x7868dc…
05-31 17:26:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,798	99¢	$2,770	0x22fc67…
05-31 17:25:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	278	99¢	$275	0xf4cd25…
05-31 17:24:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0xa8d564…
05-31 17:23:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xc829ad…
05-31 17:22:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xddf70d…
05-31 17:20:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x585929…
05-31 17:18:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0xa827f4…
05-31 17:16:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x40fcf7…
05-31 17:13:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27,337	99¢	$27,063	0x5795f2…
05-31 17:12:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x75fd22…
05-31 17:12:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xd1e0ee…
05-31 17:12:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0xa47001…
05-31 17:11:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x7acba1…
05-31 17:11:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1c2754…
05-31 17:09:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0x075443…
05-31 17:07:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x3d640d…
05-31 17:06:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,485	0xce63cd…
05-31 17:06:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,068	99¢	$1,057	0x1bacfa…
05-31 17:04:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,600	99¢	$2,574	0xdce126…
05-31 17:02:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xb4c98e…
05-31 17:01:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11,939	99¢	$11,819	0xa28a20…
05-28 18:31:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45,938	87¢	$40,000	0xc381e5…
05-26 20:46:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	6,576	98¢	$6,423	0xc5aa8e…
05-26 20:20:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13,333	75¢	$10,000	0x2d4dc6…
05-26 19:53:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x6b333d…
05-26 19:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0xe55839…
05-26 19:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10,116	98¢	$9,903	0x2b77e4…
05-26 19:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x1ccb1f…
05-26 19:33:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xfbedc2…
05-26 18:07:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x9904f1…
05-26 17:57:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	5,000	98¢	$4,900	0xfe65c4…
05-26 16:25:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0x349314…
05-26 16:22:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x7b8a40…
05-26 16:22:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x4a6062…
05-26 16:05:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcccacd…
05-26 15:54:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x6fbb73…
05-26 15:00:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	3,100	98¢	$3,038	0xe1c734…
05-26 14:56:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x308bda…
05-26 14:56:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	250	98¢	$245	0x37e5a2…
05-26 14:42:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	510	98¢	$500	0x3a0373…
05-26 14:19:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xe8442b…
05-26 13:34:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xcddfe3…
05-26 13:33:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	12,467	98¢	$12,218	0x5da21d…
05-26 12:18:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10,204	98¢	$10,000	0xe8297e…
05-26 11:09:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	5,381	98¢	$5,274	0x2a23e7…
05-19 19:00:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	10,485	76¢	$8,000	0x47982c…
05-05 04:48:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	17,310	58¢	$10,000	0x75d356…
05-04 17:39:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	8,954	56¢	$5,000	0xaf6b60…
05-04 06:09:24	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1,986	99¢	$1,967	0x8173bc…
05-04 06:08:40	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x98727e…
05-04 06:07:10	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	3,200	99¢	$3,168	0x13c51a…
05-04 06:07:08	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	998	99¢	$988	0x307d2b…
05-04 06:07:06	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd63304…
05-04 05:52:30	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe38b1a…
05-04 05:52:30	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x034bab…
05-04 05:52:28	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbf76f5…
05-04 05:52:28	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0x7aead5…
05-04 05:52:28	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3f5a05…
05-04 05:52:26	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x71efbf…
05-04 05:52:26	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$3	0x238cb8…
05-04 05:52:24	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x82d5c5…
05-04 05:52:18	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	400	99¢	$396	0xe269cd…
05-04 05:52:04	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdb5cc9…
05-04 05:52:02	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x817f04…
05-04 05:51:46	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xee0485…
05-04 05:42:54	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	2,342	99¢	$2,318	0xa748ed…
05-04 04:35:36	Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	8,886	14¢	$1,210	0xcd96c2…
05-04 04:16:28	Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	2,714	34¢	$918	0xce5862…
05-04 04:00:36	Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	6,172	32¢	$2,000	0x00525e…
05-02 11:01:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	8,865	56¢	$5,000	0xdbb158…
05-01 12:46:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	8,462	59¢	$5,000	0xe34176…
04-27 17:30:54	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	9,277	54¢	$5,000	0x71e518…
04-26 02:08:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	33,925	94¢	$31,974	0x050882…
04-24 19:12:46	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	9,966	90¢	$8,969	0x5720ac…
04-14 19:09:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	13,659	24¢	$3,323	0x6de025…
04-14 19:08:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	SELL	20,312	3¢	$658	0xcce179…
04-13 12:32:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	13,812	72¢	$10,000	0x6e81ef…
04-12 19:18:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	14,620	99¢	$14,459	0x70454c…
04-12 19:18:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	293	99¢	$289	0x94bd00…
04-12 19:18:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x27730f…
04-12 15:19:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	21,074	10¢	$2,036	0xe45da7…