Fortunate-Kickoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.69K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$450.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$5.18K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-19 06:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 0% $-586

Politics

49% 100% +$4,277

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	23	$98.7K	45,938	59,271	-13,333	open	—	05-31 17:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	25	$79.5K	54,076	47,489	+6,586	open	—	05-26 19:53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$55.8K	33,925	33,925	+0	open	—	04-26 02:08
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$38.1K	28,179	28,178	+0	open	—	03-29 05:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$26.5K	17,119	17,119	+0	open	—	03-27 12:45
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$24.8K	15,013	15,013	+0	open	—	04-12 19:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$21.5K	20,744	20,314	+430	open	—	04-11 18:18
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$19.3K	13,158	13,158	+0	open	—	03-06 07:39
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$18.5K	0	18,701	-18,701	open	—	01-25 20:16
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$13.5K	10,518	10,518	+0	open	—	02-28 08:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$13.3K	13,812	13,659	+152	open	—	04-14 19:09
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$11.1K	6,173	6,173	+0	open	—	01-31 09:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	2	$7.6K	9,991	9,791	+200	open	—	04-08 18:42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	1	$5.0K	6,923	0	+6,923	open	—	06-19 06:20
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	1	$5.0K	8,370	0	+8,370	open	—	06-16 03:37
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	1	$5.0K	9,277	0	+9,277	Yes	+$4,277	04-27 17:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$2.7K	21,074	20,312	+762	open	—	04-14 19:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$1.6K	0	3,960	-3,960	open	—	01-02 08:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$1.4K	5,673	5,673	+0	No	$-586	04-08 03:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$1.2K	9,657	9,657	+0	open	—	03-31 14:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 06:20:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	6,923	72¢	$5,000	0xac75a0…
06-16 03:37:46	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	8,370	60¢	$5,000	0x96a691…
05-31 17:26:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11,099	99¢	$10,988	0x7868dc…
05-31 17:26:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,798	99¢	$2,770	0x22fc67…
05-31 17:25:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	278	99¢	$275	0xf4cd25…
05-31 17:24:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0xa8d564…
05-31 17:23:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xc829ad…
05-31 17:22:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xddf70d…
05-31 17:20:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x585929…
05-31 17:18:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0xa827f4…
05-31 17:16:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x40fcf7…
05-31 17:13:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27,337	99¢	$27,063	0x5795f2…
05-31 17:12:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x75fd22…
05-31 17:12:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xd1e0ee…
05-31 17:12:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0xa47001…
05-31 17:11:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x7acba1…
05-31 17:11:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1c2754…
05-31 17:09:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0x075443…
05-31 17:07:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x3d640d…
05-31 17:06:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,485	0xce63cd…
05-31 17:06:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,068	99¢	$1,057	0x1bacfa…
05-31 17:04:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,600	99¢	$2,574	0xdce126…
05-31 17:02:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xb4c98e…
05-31 17:01:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11,939	99¢	$11,819	0xa28a20…
05-28 18:31:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45,938	87¢	$40,000	0xc381e5…
05-26 19:53:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x6b333d…
05-26 19:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0xe55839…
05-26 19:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10,116	98¢	$9,903	0x2b77e4…
05-26 19:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x1ccb1f…
05-26 18:07:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x9904f1…
05-26 17:57:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	5,000	98¢	$4,900	0xfe65c4…
05-26 16:25:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0x349314…
05-26 16:22:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x7b8a40…
05-26 16:22:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x4a6062…
05-26 16:05:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcccacd…
05-26 15:54:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x6fbb73…
05-26 15:00:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	3,100	98¢	$3,038	0xe1c734…
05-26 14:56:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x308bda…
05-26 14:56:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	250	98¢	$245	0x37e5a2…
05-26 14:42:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	510	98¢	$500	0x3a0373…
05-26 14:19:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xe8442b…
05-26 13:34:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xcddfe3…
05-26 13:33:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	12,467	98¢	$12,218	0x5da21d…
05-26 12:18:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	10,204	98¢	$10,000	0xe8297e…
05-26 11:09:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	5,381	98¢	$5,274	0x2a23e7…
05-19 19:00:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	10,485	76¢	$8,000	0x47982c…
05-05 04:48:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	17,310	58¢	$10,000	0x75d356…
05-04 17:39:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	8,954	56¢	$5,000	0xaf6b60…
05-02 11:01:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	8,865	56¢	$5,000	0xdbb158…
05-01 12:46:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	8,462	59¢	$5,000	0xe34176…
04-27 17:30:54	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	9,277	54¢	$5,000	0x71e518…
04-26 02:08:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	33,925	94¢	$31,974	0x050882…
04-24 19:12:46	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	9,966	90¢	$8,969	0x5720ac…
04-14 19:09:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	13,659	24¢	$3,323	0x6de025…
04-14 19:08:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	SELL	20,312	3¢	$658	0xcce179…
04-13 12:32:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	13,812	72¢	$10,000	0x6e81ef…
04-12 19:18:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	14,620	99¢	$14,459	0x70454c…
04-12 19:18:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	293	99¢	$289	0x94bd00…
04-12 19:18:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x27730f…
04-12 15:19:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	21,074	10¢	$2,036	0xe45da7…
04-11 18:18:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	9,873	21¢	$2,100	0x6890b0…
04-09 19:55:17	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	23,959	62¢	$14,899	0x2ec781…
04-08 18:45:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	10,160	30¢	$3,000	0x2d52d9…
04-08 18:42:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	SELL	9,791	27¢	$2,632	0x4db71e…
04-08 15:12:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	9,991	50¢	$4,996	0x188389…
04-08 03:20:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5,673	7¢	$414	0xce3b7e…
04-07 14:24:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	10,441	90¢	$9,397	0xbb1b21…
04-06 11:37:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	10,584	66¢	$7,000	0xe349dc…
04-01 18:41:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5,673	18¢	$1,000	0x571737…
03-31 14:21:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	9,657	2¢	$164	0x524f18…
03-29 15:00:38	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	9,657	10¢	$1,000	0x3af191…
03-29 05:27:32	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	15,013	67¢	$10,000	0x1955ec…
03-29 05:25:52	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	5,204	75¢	$3,911	0x71c24f…
03-27 12:45:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	17,119	96¢	$16,451	0x8cba95…
03-23 15:33:47	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	5,204	38¢	$2,000	0x173224…
03-21 13:17:47	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	22,974	70¢	$15,981	0xdc333a…
03-12 14:22:43	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	7,339	84¢	$6,185	0xa12e8e…
03-10 14:22:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	15,635	64¢	$10,000	0x43f6d0…
03-06 07:39:55	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	13,158	71¢	$9,334	0xb1d0c9…
03-03 19:46:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	17,119	58¢	$10,000	0xe8a61f…
03-03 19:29:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	13,158	76¢	$10,000	0x4ad261…
02-28 08:01:57	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	10,518	100¢	$10,497	0xf8dbaa…
02-19 14:03:08	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	10,518	29¢	$3,000	0xa661f0…
01-31 09:26:08	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	6,173	99¢	$6,136	0x041e6e…
01-25 20:17:22	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	6,173	81¢	$5,000	0xb7973f…
01-25 20:16:10	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	18,701	99¢	$18,533	0x4d13b9…
01-02 08:11:29	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	3,960	42¢	$1,647	0x519d70…