Conventional-Fir — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$66

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

39.0%

Resolved

Trades

153

lifetime

Volume

$253

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-06

last 07-31 00:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

38% 22% -$59

Other

36% 50% +$10

Politics

16% 50% -$6

Sports

10% 18% -$9

Tech

1% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-31).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+135	$8	2¢	$3	-$5	07-31 00:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	2	$67	3,534	3,534	+0	No	-$53	06-08 14:15
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	9	$23	26	26	+0	No	+$8	04-01 04:19
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	14	$16	46	46	+0	Yes	-$2	03-30 10:50
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	5	$9	19	19	+0	No	+$3	03-18 06:43
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	3	$8	135	0	+135	open	—	07-31 00:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	3	$6	6	6	+0	No	+$2	04-08 00:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	4	$6	7	7	+0	No	+$2	05-18 12:05
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	6	$6	244	244	+0	No	-$4	02-26 23:19
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$5	11	18	-7	No	+$1	06-06 03:53
will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	2	$5	7	7	+0	No	+$3	02-28 09:25
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	4	$4	29	29	+0	Yes	-$2	03-27 14:21
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$4	4	4	+0	No	+$2	03-10 01:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$4	15	15	+0	Yes	-$4	03-01 03:00
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$4	269	53	+217	No	-$2	04-09 01:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 16:15 UTC	7	$4	19	14	+5	Up	+$1	02-06 16:27
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$4	13	13	+0	No	$0	03-10 01:39
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$4	22	13	+9	No	$0	03-13 04:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$3	8	8	+0	No	+$1	04-15 01:54
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$3	11	11	+0	No	-$1	03-18 00:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$3	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	04-14 05:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$3	5	5	+0	No	+$1	04-08 00:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$3	5	5	+0	Yes	-$3	03-01 03:01
nba lac gsw 2026 03 02	3	$3	42	0	+42	Clippers	-$3	03-03 05:20
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	2	$3	10	10	+0	No	+$1	02-28 15:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$3	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	05-09 01:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$2	2	2	+0	No	+$0	05-07 12:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	04-17 15:08
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$2	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-18 12:05
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$2	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	03-07 06:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$2	20	20	+0	No	+$0	03-07 17:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-31 00:25:45	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	3¢	$2	0xb71161…
07-01 13:20:28	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6bcc00…
07-01 07:21:32	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x376699…
06-08 14:16:22	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x2c8e1c…
06-08 14:15:48	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,534	0¢	$7	0x029aeb…
06-06 03:53:25	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xe0f1c0…
05-18 12:06:11	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x72fadc…
05-18 12:06:06	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x722dd2…
05-18 12:05:45	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xc18493…
05-18 12:05:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xb36444…
05-12 10:57:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf8b658…
05-12 10:38:30	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x05034d…
05-12 10:38:13	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,534	2¢	$60	0x18bca7…
05-11 19:50:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x377dee…
05-09 04:29:47	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x208d2c…
05-09 01:04:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0x6c722c…
05-09 01:04:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xce2a7c…
05-07 12:53:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xd52054…
05-07 01:59:09	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x939397…
05-05 07:57:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x8e97ca…
05-05 07:57:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xfbdef5…
05-05 07:56:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf23199…
05-05 07:56:20	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xad9e42…
04-17 15:08:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0xe555e1…
04-16 05:42:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0394a2…
04-16 05:42:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0ea38a…
04-15 01:54:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0xadc39f…
04-14 05:48:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x9cfcea…
04-13 08:24:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc8c043…
04-13 08:21:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xce7393…
04-12 13:51:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa2392a…
04-10 12:07:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x473897…
04-09 01:40:43	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x35d43b…
04-08 00:35:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0x7ae68b…
04-08 00:35:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x69c6b6…
04-03 01:19:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x5bbc25…
04-02 12:39:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x4f150a…
04-01 04:33:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x70d23f…
04-01 04:19:51	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5308b6…
03-30 10:50:48	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x573157…
03-30 05:44:08	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfd3d22…
03-30 02:29:20	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x7ccf9b…
03-30 02:18:46	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0xb2918b…
03-29 11:00:10	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0d6b80…
03-27 14:23:25	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe54458…
03-27 14:21:05	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	SELL	29	5¢	$1	0x99c30b…
03-27 13:43:03	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc8fe85…
03-27 13:42:55	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x64b1a7…
03-27 11:39:57	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x9f2f75…
03-27 11:39:39	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb55972…
03-27 11:39:35	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe8fc9e…
03-27 01:15:39	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xae1827…
03-23 11:13:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xa55068…
03-22 13:39:53	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x944049…
03-21 17:11:57	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7dc869…
03-21 17:08:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4cd369…
03-21 00:33:17	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0x75bf25…
03-21 00:33:11	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x442c94…
03-21 00:33:03	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x46e056…
03-18 13:49:49	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3fbbc3…
03-18 13:03:39	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb459cf…
03-18 06:43:59	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xac95dc…
03-18 06:43:57	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	12	55¢	$6	0x1506dd…
03-18 00:47:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	7	9¢	$1	0xfa596b…
03-16 05:07:49	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0xef4dcb…
03-15 13:31:25	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x0035cb…
03-14 18:01:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdd7093…
03-14 17:59:15	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x96456e…
03-14 17:59:11	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb01e44…
03-14 05:52:21	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1bfe92…
03-14 02:50:19	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x390981…
03-14 02:48:59	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0x73aea7…
03-14 02:48:07	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x744b1b…
03-13 04:11:17	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xff7487…
03-13 04:11:09	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xfb0c2e…
03-13 04:11:01	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xae5e0c…
03-13 04:10:47	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xee64ee…
03-12 23:25:47	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf3748e…
03-12 23:25:29	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x840771…
03-12 14:13:25	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 851	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x7dff8f…
03-12 06:49:37	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 851	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xf87028…
03-12 03:38:05	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	13	13¢	$2	0x00ed56…
03-12 03:37:13	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbeced5…
03-12 03:33:47	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb9d54a…
03-12 03:28:29	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x52b913…
03-10 01:40:23	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x53f952…
03-10 01:39:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x02c309…
03-10 01:01:07	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x1a3be2…
03-09 06:46:55	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x5746de…
03-09 06:46:25	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	12	12¢	$2	0x0c36cc…
03-09 03:03:59	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe7e02d…
03-09 01:42:39	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x012a1b…
03-07 17:58:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xea8f25…
03-07 17:48:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xaead94…
03-07 17:41:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe8ef5c…
03-07 07:37:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xada48d…
03-07 07:37:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2593a9…
03-07 07:00:43	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	Yes	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x495416…
03-07 06:56:33	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x323852…
03-07 06:56:27	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x0d41db…