Frayed-Maniac — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

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Unrealized P&L

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Hit rate

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Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

161 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$15.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$93

Open exposure

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0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-11 06:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

47% 16% +$38

Crypto

26% 21% -$14

Politics

14% 0% -$2

Sports

11% 40% +$3

Tech

1% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$895	468	468	+0	Yes	-$1	01-20 04:03
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	2	$499	252	252	+0	No	$0	01-24 03:47
si hit 150 high jan 2026	3	$498	253	253	+0	No	-$1	01-24 03:53
will ethereum reach 4200 in january 2026	2	$498	249	249	+0	No	$0	01-27 11:54
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$452	227	227	+0	No	$0	01-15 09:39
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$451	231	231	+0	No	$0	01-15 09:41
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	2	$450	226	226	+0	No	$0	01-15 09:42
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$449	239	239	+0	No	$0	01-15 09:43
will solana reach 210 in january 2026	2	$445	225	225	+0	No	$0	01-15 09:46
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	2	$444	222	222	+0	No	$0	01-20 03:57
will the denver broncos win super bowl 2026	2	$443	240	240	+0	No	$0	01-20 04:00
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$442	229	229	+0	No	$0	01-20 04:05
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$441	221	221	+0	No	$0	01-20 04:07
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$440	223	223	+0	No	$0	01-20 04:08
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$413	209	209	+0	No	$0	03-24 08:23
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$412	207	207	+0	No	$0	03-30 04:20
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	2	$411	206	206	+0	No	$0	03-30 04:20
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$411	206	206	+0	Yes	$0	04-06 03:53
will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 6	2	$410	205	205	+0	No	$0	04-06 03:55
will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$409	209	209	+0	No	$0	04-06 03:56
bitcoin above 86k on january 13	2	$403	202	202	+0	Yes	$0	01-13 03:59
bitcoin above 88k on january 13	2	$403	204	204	+0	Yes	$0	01-13 03:59
ethereum above 2800 on january 13	2	$402	202	202	+0	Yes	$0	01-13 04:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$400	201	201	+0	No	$0	03-24 08:24
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	2	$385	193	193	+0	No	$0	02-14 11:30
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$280	140	140	+0	Yes	$0	02-27 07:12
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	05-26 04:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$200	102	102	+0	No	$0	05-10 03:26
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-27 07:11
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-25 03:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 06:05:15	Will "Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xac17f0…
09-11 06:03:43	Will "Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xdd1926…
09-11 06:03:25	Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x2e5c3b…
09-11 06:03:12	Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x1a2712…
07-08 05:33:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb623c6…
07-08 05:33:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3d4431…
06-25 10:06:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x38fe76…
06-25 10:06:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x6a3355…
06-17 04:09:23	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	SELL	35	82¢	$29	0x26f20c…
06-17 04:09:13	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	35	82¢	$29	0xdd8713…
06-11 06:12:15	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x32aae8…
06-11 06:12:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe4e1ef…
06-07 06:15:12	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xc2938b…
06-07 06:15:06	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x8baa86…
06-03 20:43:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Knicks	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x1a23c8…
06-02 09:04:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x1c79bf…
05-29 08:11:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x71f1c6…
05-26 04:14:12	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xb59fdd…
05-26 04:14:07	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd5ce56…
05-22 05:19:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	56	98¢	$54	0x47f07f…
05-22 05:19:40	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x1bb8fc…
05-17 04:11:43	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	SELL	59	99¢	$59	0x6a3624…
05-17 04:11:38	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x61fd54…
05-10 03:26:48	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0xec227d…
05-10 03:26:39	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0xd5877a…
05-10 03:26:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x20767a…
05-10 03:26:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xd9b225…
04-25 12:59:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x25e0c1…
04-25 12:59:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x2934cc…
04-25 12:59:30	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xbd3932…
04-25 12:59:24	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe75b50…
04-11 12:58:49	nba atl mia 2026 04 12	Heat	BUY	11	33¢	$3	0x161d14…
04-11 12:55:13	nba atl mia 2026 04 12	Heat	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x16518e…
04-11 12:15:27	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x3c9db0…
04-11 12:15:21	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcd1be8…
04-06 03:56:31	will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	209	98¢	$204	0xa5913f…
04-06 03:56:09	will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	209	98¢	$205	0x7fbfee…
04-06 03:55:51	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 6	No	SELL	205	100¢	$205	0x496035…
04-06 03:54:27	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 6	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0xbe2d7f…
04-06 03:53:49	Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	206	100¢	$205	0x6cc9ed…
04-06 03:53:15	Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	206	100¢	$205	0x45f40e…
03-30 04:20:32	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	206	100¢	$205	0xa87a48…
03-30 04:20:26	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0x75bb9c…
03-30 04:20:06	Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$206	0x46af9d…
03-30 04:19:54	Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$206	0xce0b19…
03-24 08:24:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0x7c5810…
03-24 08:24:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xeb07ad…
03-24 08:23:55	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	209	99¢	$206	0xad353c…
03-24 08:23:49	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0xa97565…
03-24 08:23:09	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0xe1c7e6…
03-13 05:51:19	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x13a362…
03-13 05:50:37	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa2d436…
03-13 05:50:13	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x502ad6…
03-10 21:31:13	nba mem phi 2026 03 10	Grizzlies	BUY	90	38¢	$34	0x5e14d8…
03-10 11:05:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xa2b921…
03-10 11:05:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x2dca0e…
03-10 11:05:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x08159f…
03-10 11:05:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xdd3565…
03-10 11:05:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0xc2e019…
03-10 11:05:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xaf2f7a…
03-10 11:05:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	47¢	$0	0x8d39f9…
03-10 11:05:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x3f76d2…
03-10 11:05:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x3fef84…
03-04 08:14:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xc49453…
02-27 07:12:15	Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0x6e2540…
02-27 07:11:51	Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x1dd361…
02-27 07:11:17	Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x4adc58…
02-27 07:11:07	Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2dc7fd…
02-25 17:48:46	nhl sea dal 2026 02 25	Stars	BUY	87	59¢	$51	0x87fbf7…
02-25 17:44:20	nhl sea dal 2026 02 25	Stars	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x8001a8…
02-25 17:43:52	nhl sea dal 2026 02 25	Stars	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x985a7e…
02-25 03:49:18	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x031c62…
02-25 03:49:08	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0xa23910…
02-25 03:48:44	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x496e89…
02-25 03:48:22	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8b653a…
02-22 14:25:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	26	51¢	$13	0x60d79c…
02-22 14:25:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xc318c8…
02-22 14:23:10	will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x07551f…
02-22 14:22:44	will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa2b6f1…
02-22 14:22:18	will mrbeasts latest video get 1820 million views on day 1 938 134	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x7b48de…
02-22 14:22:08	will mrbeasts latest video get 1820 million views on day 1 938 134	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xff5619…
02-18 13:46:24	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	19	50¢	$9	0xf6c724…
02-18 13:46:22	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x774e86…
02-18 13:46:20	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x30f1b4…
02-14 11:50:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x67c13f…
02-14 11:33:23	will global temperature increase by less than 1pt05c in february 2026	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x753a28…
02-14 11:31:57	will global temperature increase by less than 1pt05c in february 2026	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x4e0e5a…
02-14 11:31:49	will global temperature increase by less than 1pt05c in february 2026	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xaaa43e…
02-14 11:31:33	nflx above 140 on february 20 2026	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x57b81f…
02-14 11:31:23	nflx above 140 on february 20 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xe595bc…
02-14 11:30:45	Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	SELL	193	100¢	$192	0xf0b00d…
02-14 11:30:35	Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	BUY	193	100¢	$192	0x85b37b…
02-12 11:58:19	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	28	49¢	$14	0x7e4a10…
02-12 11:45:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	33	49¢	$16	0x5c0024…
02-12 11:37:39	open above 7pt5 on february 13 2026	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xc39d76…
02-12 11:37:31	open above 7pt5 on february 13 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x2f5f26…
02-09 05:28:27	will kraken run an ad during super bowl lx	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xd83705…
02-09 05:28:19	will kraken run an ad during super bowl lx	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x8a7716…
02-09 05:27:49	crint ita sco 2026 02 09	Italy	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xaf267f…
02-05 08:16:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0x819581…