Good-Waterspout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

113

Trades

255

lifetime

Volume

$1.53K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 08-31 06:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

92% 57% -$7

Tech

4% 100% +$1

Politics

4% 67% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-20 18:12
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$1	05-31 05:19
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	05-20 01:46
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?	2	$26	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	06-22 10:16
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	+$0	06-15 09:06
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$1	06-16 15:29
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-02 12:52
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$0	06-14 03:08
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-29 15:23
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	05-31 08:52
will the virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-21 20:55
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	04-27 01:50
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-29 02:40
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 4?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-03 21:07
highest temperature in seattle on april 24 2026 66forhigher	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-23 23:40
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on April 26?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-25 16:01
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 5?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-05 04:43
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-14 20:02
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 27?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-26 17:25
highest temperature in milan on april 21 2026 18c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-21 08:44
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-29 16:43
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-25 17:41
highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-24 07:09
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-13 23:03
highest temperature in wellington on april 24 2026 13c	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-23 17:51
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-07 05:00
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 5?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-05 01:29
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 23 2026 14c	6	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-22 20:22
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-25 12:49
highest temperature in paris on april 21 2026 19c	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	04-20 22:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 06:14:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdfc5ed…
06-29 15:23:59	Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x0e1013…
06-29 06:53:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 29?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xacc10e…
06-29 03:09:20	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 29?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7baf57…
06-29 02:40:34	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xabd5fc…
06-28 12:43:37	Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x64c062…
06-28 02:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xbe91b0…
06-27 20:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x412a7d…
06-27 05:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1bbbb1…
06-27 04:56:38	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x1a17b7…
06-27 04:56:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x568be1…
06-27 04:44:17	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x37c268…
06-25 17:41:52	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xb8102e…
06-25 17:41:52	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x02b1f0…
06-25 16:53:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x93447a…
06-25 12:49:35	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc5970d…
06-24 21:31:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xcf2094…
06-24 21:29:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x620f8e…
06-24 06:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x87a9a8…
06-24 05:59:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x879adb…
06-23 06:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xe8b665…
06-23 04:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x7ba970…
06-22 10:16:29	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x887b9c…
06-21 19:54:35	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?	Yes	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x210575…
06-20 18:12:41	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x519ecf…
06-20 15:18:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2db5b4…
06-20 13:36:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5c4ac8…
06-19 14:24:56	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xe299c9…
06-19 12:03:47	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x2f5239…
06-17 07:38:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x3a2fe4…
06-17 07:14:08	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x6a6b9b…
06-16 15:29:38	Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xbf851f…
06-16 02:20:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x9a411c…
06-15 09:06:10	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xff0247…
06-14 20:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xce4c74…
06-14 20:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x29291a…
06-14 16:25:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe70a39…
06-14 03:08:40	Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x1e1236…
06-14 00:44:07	Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x821e00…
06-14 00:03:46	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x53c805…
06-13 05:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x178394…
06-13 05:31:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3b759f…
06-13 05:30:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x885c18…
06-12 10:38:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xfbff20…
06-12 09:17:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x080600…
06-12 08:56:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xf8adf8…
06-12 08:56:28	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0c6658…
06-11 14:22:33	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfb8979…
06-10 23:29:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xa15b39…
06-10 18:13:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xc9080e…
06-09 03:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x8bc4ad…
06-09 03:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xbd6f80…
06-08 12:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf96bd7…
06-08 11:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb13d93…
06-08 05:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3c4190…
06-07 20:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf8e742…
06-07 05:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xd5663a…
06-07 05:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xda4e34…
06-07 04:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x0b619f…
06-06 13:11:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xe8c6ec…
06-06 12:07:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 7?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xb7cbb8…
06-06 05:03:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xa45311…
06-05 14:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xc2b490…
06-05 03:03:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x26c033…
06-05 02:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x219633…
06-03 16:03:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xb86490…
06-03 16:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xde46aa…
06-03 15:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x799e60…
06-03 00:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd1d9ec…
06-02 20:36:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 3?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa3eb1c…
06-02 14:53:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x497c51…
06-02 12:52:13	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xeda2b3…
06-02 09:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 2?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x79b908…
06-02 07:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 2?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xbfb335…
06-02 06:18:35	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 2?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xdc842c…
06-01 20:42:17	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 2?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x32ed70…
06-01 13:20:01	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf7b902…
06-01 12:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 2?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x44e095…
06-01 03:04:28	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x7439ca…
05-31 22:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 1?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5359b6…
05-31 20:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x5fb209…
05-31 20:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x9cbca5…
05-31 19:22:47	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x366ed7…
05-31 12:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xaff458…
05-31 08:52:38	Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xec5d0d…
05-31 05:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6c9b53…
05-31 05:37:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xee8e72…
05-31 05:19:20	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x351cbd…
05-30 14:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xf1657d…
05-30 12:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 31?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x8cf73f…
05-30 01:16:11	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x845410…
05-29 07:53:06	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xf708b7…
05-29 00:04:52	Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x5ea98f…
05-28 12:39:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x79fc67…
05-28 12:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa2924d…
05-28 06:39:46	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xed8556…
05-28 04:11:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x21631d…
05-28 04:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x1c483e…
05-27 12:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 28?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x063652…
05-27 00:35:34	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x1bc7ee…