Parallel-Transparency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$39.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$117

Hit rate

88.0%

Resolved

1,558

Trades

5,625

lifetime

Volume

$988.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$176

Open exposure

$2.04K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-15 11:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 255 days

Categories

Other

36% 81% +$17,792

Politics

33% 74% +$17,356

Sports

23% 81% +$3,376

Crypto

8% 68% +$113

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1,141

Tech

0% 62% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Human moon landing in 2026?	No	-1,216	-$1,167	99¢	$-1209	-$42	05-02 16:40
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?	No	+651	$529	95¢	$620	+$91	11-10 10:22
Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	+315	$200	45¢	$143	-$57	11-15 11:57
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?	No	+44	$31	98¢	$43	+$12	09-26 16:39
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+241	$65	4¢	$10	-$55	11-07 10:09
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	+10	-$165	86¢	$8	+$173	10-27 18:03
Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	No	+9	$3	55¢	$5	+$1	11-14 20:28
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	Yes	+10	$4	15¢	$1	-$3	10-22 20:08
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?	Yes	+24	$5	5¢	$1	-$4	11-01 14:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$44.6K	44,600	600	+44,000	No	+$236	06-03 14:38
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$34.6K	34,800	100	+34,700	No	+$75	04-30 20:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$32.5K	32,571	0	+32,571	Yes	+$42	06-17 14:59
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating mens 1000m joep wennemars ned	14	$30.0K	15,882	14,296	+1,586	No	-$147	02-11 18:55
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	26	$29.5K	29,183	493	+28,690	No	+$187	03-04 16:25
Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	30	$28.2K	19,081	19,081	+0	Yes	+$9,905	10-16 23:39
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get at least 150m views in its first 7 days	129	$26.4K	13,366	13,366	+0	No	+$216	02-14 23:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$25.0K	25,000	0	+25,000	Yes	+$25	03-03 10:15
will mrbeast hit 470 million subscribers by march 31 822	3	$22.2K	11,117	11,117	+0	Yes	+$1	03-06 20:20
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	2	$20.0K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$0	02-25 20:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$20.0K	15,000	5,000	+10,000	Yes	+$15	04-08 09:33
will artemis ii launch by february 28	10	$15.9K	15,959	0	+15,959	No	+$25	02-25 09:15
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	3	$14.5K	9,700	4,850	+4,850	Yes	+$5	02-09 16:30
will mrbeast hit 107pt5 billion views by march 31	4	$14.1K	11,592	2,523	+9,069	Yes	+$9	01-14 15:42
will artemis ii launch by february 7	19	$13.5K	13,489	0	+13,489	No	+$18	02-07 09:14
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	7	$13.1K	6,700	6,700	+0	No	+$292	11-04 02:26
italy nordio reform referendum passes	4	$12.0K	7,041	5,000	+2,041	No	+$16	03-23 17:21
netanyahu out by march 31 854	9	$11.7K	5,907	5,907	+0	No	+$33	04-01 20:22
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$10.5K	10,350	350	+10,000	Yes	-$26	02-03 13:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$10.0K	5,060	5,060	+0	Yes	-$33	04-09 19:00
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	2	$10.0K	5,000	4,999	+1	No	+$5	04-30 12:58
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	11	$9.9K	4,990	5,038	-48	No	+$40	02-06 17:51
2026 winter olympics ski slopestyle mens birk ruud nor	9	$9.8K	9,836	0	+9,836	Yes	+$10	02-10 14:30
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	11	$9.5K	4,798	4,798	+0	Yes	+$76	02-03 10:19
will mrbeast hit 474 million subscribers by march 31 977 964	40	$9.5K	15,166	7,326	+7,840	Yes	+$10	03-31 12:29
will mrbeasts next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1 974	14	$9.4K	6,031	4,810	+1,221	No	$0	01-12 11:14
will mrbeast hit 500 million subscribers by january 31 433 563 486 639	9	$9.4K	9,427	0	+9,427	No	+$23	01-16 19:28
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	25	$9.2K	6,244	5,744	+500	Yes	+$463	02-16 02:50
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	43	$7.0K	10,127	6,579	+3,548	Yes	+$1,602	09-25 06:32
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	26	$6.8K	6,654	473	+6,181	No	+$93	11-04 01:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 11:57:49	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0x09bc41…
11-15 01:17:07	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xb4a040…
11-14 22:45:43	LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Gen.G	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x51678b…
11-14 21:42:38	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	119	73¢	$87	0xaa87cc…
11-14 21:24:34	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x9d4386…
11-14 21:23:41	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0x09fd4d…
11-14 21:20:53	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd6ece1…
11-14 21:20:35	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x0c91f1…
11-14 21:20:05	Will Caedrel say "Dragon / Drake" 20+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0xa9e725…
11-14 21:16:23	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	26	44¢	$11	0x2407ab…
11-14 21:15:47	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x253afc…
11-14 20:54:17	Will Caedrel say "Int / Inting" on stream?	Yes	BUY	67	98¢	$65	0x063046…
11-14 20:52:46	Will Caedrel say "Int / Inting" on stream?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x1eb244…
11-14 20:48:53	Will Caedrel say "Int / Inting" on stream?	Yes	SELL	58	87¢	$51	0x4e853c…
11-14 20:45:26	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x7769b5…
11-14 20:45:19	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x40da36…
11-14 20:28:55	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x152883…
11-14 20:28:23	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0xa7c1fb…
11-14 20:22:31	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xedafcd…
11-14 20:20:59	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	243	99¢	$240	0xc7d506…
11-14 20:17:43	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	306	96¢	$294	0x10a578…
11-14 20:03:10	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2fc636…
11-14 20:03:05	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd74425…
11-14 19:59:10	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0x088af1…
11-14 19:59:05	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0xe35947…
11-14 19:59:05	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4027b1…
11-14 19:59:02	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x26a401…
11-14 18:33:07	Will Caedrel say "Dragon / Drake" 20+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x63e17d…
11-14 17:50:22	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	288	25¢	$72	0xfdd16c…
11-14 17:41:25	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	33	36¢	$12	0x721134…
11-14 17:28:32	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	321	44¢	$142	0xde80bb…
11-14 15:19:23	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$11	0x591700…
11-14 09:49:37	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	212	86¢	$181	0x4db719…
11-14 09:44:31	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	No	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0x70d270…
11-14 09:44:16	Will Caedrel say "Dragon / Drake" 20+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	215	79¢	$170	0xe93e28…
11-14 09:17:16	Will Caedrel say "Riot" 3+ times on stream?	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0x57f046…
11-13 22:23:45	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	55	71¢	$39	0xce9332…
11-13 22:23:21	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xf548b0…
11-13 22:14:28	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x9c6303…
11-13 22:12:57	Will Caedrel say "Int / Inting" on stream?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x6f555e…
11-13 22:12:27	Will Caedrel say "Int / Inting" on stream?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xfd8d3f…
11-13 22:10:22	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	48	87¢	$42	0xc1ccdc…
11-13 22:10:04	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x5e1329…
11-13 22:09:58	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0xf3201b…
11-13 22:09:01	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0x102abf…
11-13 22:07:01	Will Caedrel say "Riot" 3+ times on stream?	No	SELL	82	92¢	$76	0x7d3e1e…
11-13 22:06:40	Will Caedrel say "Riot" 3+ times on stream?	No	BUY	123	75¢	$92	0xe0af8d…
11-13 21:58:22	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	No	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xd39c1f…
11-13 21:58:22	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	No	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xb13cc8…
11-13 21:58:22	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	No	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0x88cc72…
11-13 21:58:22	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	35	64¢	$22	0x4cdf75…
11-13 21:58:19	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0xaf241b…
11-13 21:52:31	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	No	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x302122…
11-13 21:12:09	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x51d08f…
11-13 21:11:15	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	144	93¢	$133	0x01dddd…
11-13 21:10:18	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	256	72¢	$183	0x58a1d6…
11-13 21:08:30	Will Caedrel say "Int / Inting" on stream?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x2151c1…
11-13 21:02:39	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0x549378…
11-13 21:02:33	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	326	94¢	$308	0x413c76…
11-13 20:54:16	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	113	62¢	$70	0xeb6618…
11-13 20:42:24	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	70	73¢	$51	0xb5a88c…
11-13 20:35:55	Will Caedrel say "Dragon / Drake" 20+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	109	87¢	$95	0xbe7a54…
11-13 19:27:16	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	30	79¢	$24	0x4235d8…
11-13 19:27:12	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xfdc58c…
11-13 19:26:37	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x6754d4…
11-13 16:23:45	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	180	62¢	$112	0x8f70cd…
11-13 16:17:36	Will Caedrel say "Baron" 7+ times on stream?	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x4058e7…
11-13 15:37:55	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	76	45¢	$34	0x29a091…
11-13 15:37:52	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	SELL	276	52¢	$142	0xcfdbb2…
11-13 11:04:03	Will Caedrel say "Dragon / Drake" 20+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0x3c3397…
11-12 21:17:28	Will Clooless win Best Content Group at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x8bbb24…
11-12 21:00:07	Will the announcers say "Wind" or "Windy" during the Seahawks vs Broncos game?	Yes	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0x6392fa…
11-12 20:36:07	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xc42cdb…
11-12 20:32:09	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	277	87¢	$243	0x19c2a2…
11-12 18:40:22	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x837804…
11-12 18:27:49	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	130	78¢	$101	0x455bb9…
11-12 17:32:36	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	No	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0xeb729c…
11-12 15:37:52	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x15f657…
11-12 15:37:39	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	105	70¢	$74	0xcc0ba9…
11-12 15:37:39	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x5f8317…
11-12 15:32:37	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xd2ef2e…
11-12 14:18:48	Will Caedrel say "Crab / Scuttle" 10+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	402	22¢	$88	0xfe461d…
11-12 13:44:33	Will Caedrel say "Dragon / Drake" 20+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	321	72¢	$232	0x475f49…
11-12 13:20:22	Will Caedrel say "Dive" 7+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x5214fc…
11-12 13:15:00	Will Caedrel say "Grub" 3+ times on stream?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xefb0fd…
11-12 11:18:21	Will Jensen Huang join a new company by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	194	89¢	$172	0x71b92e…
11-12 11:09:33	Will Jensen Huang join a new company by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	106	89¢	$95	0x7e3470…
11-12 09:52:19	Will Jensen Huang join a new company by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0xf37c67…
11-11 16:28:51	Will Trump say "Hegseth" during his Veterans Day remarks at Arlington?	No	BUY	51	13¢	$7	0xbaf1af…
11-11 11:42:43	Will the announcers say "Turf" during the Cowboys vs Packers game?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5a30bf…
11-11 00:26:01	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	SELL	280	85¢	$238	0x1e82ca…
11-11 00:20:22	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 3:59 AM ET?	Yes	SELL	51	74¢	$37	0xee7bf4…
11-11 00:11:07	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0x4aec11…
11-10 23:20:55	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	SELL	220	84¢	$185	0x1edf7f…
11-10 22:35:55	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	BUY	217	74¢	$160	0x2527b0…
11-10 22:09:45	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	SELL	755	2¢	$16	0x797ccd…
11-10 22:08:19	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	BUY	255	5¢	$14	0x704864…
11-10 22:07:57	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0xef4c07…
11-10 21:24:01	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	SELL	111	84¢	$93	0xfc6b86…
11-10 21:13:49	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	SELL	82	81¢	$66	0x705906…