Failing-Party — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$442

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

52.5%

Resolved

4,122

Trades

5,445

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 10-28 19:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 72% -$171

Other

22% 11% -$193

Politics

5% 9% -$53

Tech

2% 9% -$20

Sports

1% 10% -$4

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	+6	$3	86¢	$5	+$2	10-22 11:29
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+4	$3	68¢	$3	+$0	10-22 09:55
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	32¢	$1	$0	10-22 09:55
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	+6	$3	14¢	$1	-$2	10-22 11:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xrp reach 1pt5 on march 20	6	$93	103	102	+1	No	+$3	03-20 09:57
xrp above 1pt5 on march 22	6	$91	113	112	+1	No	-$2	03-20 10:10
ethereum above 2000 on march 29	17	$82	83	82	+1	No	-$4	03-29 13:07
bitcoin above 66k on march 29	14	$68	59	58	+1	Yes	+$2	03-28 13:56
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 360 379	13	$63	191	191	+0	Yes	-$1	03-23 23:28
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	14	$60	190	190	+0	No	-$3	03-23 19:23
xrp above 1pt5 on march 21	4	$59	38	38	+0	No	-$1	03-20 09:57
xrp above 1pt5 on march 23	6	$58	43	42	+0	No	-$1	03-20 10:11
will the price of xrp be between 1pt40 1pt50 on march 22	3	$57	78	77	+1	No	-$2	03-20 10:10
will trumps approval rating be between 40pt5 and 40pt9 on march 20 2026	4	$57	44	44	+0	Yes	+$0	03-20 05:30
bitcoin above 70k on march 23	12	$52	154	153	+1	Yes	+$0	03-23 12:52
will the price of xrp be between 1pt40 1pt50 on march 21	10	$50	100	99	+1	Yes	-$10	03-20 10:35
will the price of xrp be between 1pt50 1pt60 on march 22	5	$47	149	126	+22	No	-$3	03-20 10:32
xrp above 1pt5 on march 25	4	$46	79	78	+1	No	-$1	03-20 10:13
amazon matches anthropics evaluator commitment by october 31	2	$42	68	68	+0	open	—	09-15 04:50
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 115 139	8	$38	94	94	+0	No	-$2	03-23 10:44
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$38	137	137	+0	No	-$4	03-24 20:00
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 300 319	4	$37	56	56	+0	No	-$1	03-19 21:10
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 75m and 80m	7	$37	84	84	+0	No	+$6	03-23 04:36
bitcoin above 72k on march 25	16	$37	36	36	+0	No	-$2	03-25 14:28
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	10	$37	84	84	+0	Yes	-$2	03-24 09:55
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	3	$35	48	48	+0	No	$0	03-19 20:54
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$35	77	77	+0	No	-$1	03-25 13:19
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?	3	$34	87	87	+0	Yes	-$16	09-13 06:23
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	8	$31	47	47	+0	No	$0	03-23 18:41
bitcoin above 70k on march 22	11	$31	66	65	+1	No	-$1	03-22 08:45
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	6	$31	117	117	+0	No	-$2	03-24 20:49
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	6	$31	59	59	+0	No	$0	03-25 13:37
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on march 20	7	$31	50	49	+1	Yes	+$1	03-20 15:53
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	4	$30	100	100	+0	open	—	10-22 07:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 19:29:13	Will kiNgg play for G2 Esports in 2027?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xc688a2…
10-28 18:35:04	Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xbc2716…
10-28 18:26:04	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x5c6d73…
10-28 18:26:04	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x0dd496…
10-28 17:30:08	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x72acca…
10-28 17:29:59	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0xca4574…
10-28 09:44:28	Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xb04a9d…
10-28 09:44:28	Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xa43328…
10-28 09:34:23	Will Salahdine Parnasse fight Rafael Fiziev next?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x9f1058…
10-28 09:26:34	Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x0e5dfb…
10-28 08:14:04	Will Salahdine Parnasse fight Rafael Fiziev next?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xb9fb1f…
10-28 08:14:04	Will Salahdine Parnasse fight Rafael Fiziev next?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x296cbe…
10-27 23:00:17	Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xac44b9…
10-27 13:07:51	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x499da3…
10-27 12:30:35	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xd28c27…
10-27 08:11:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x351e11…
10-27 07:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x24761f…
10-27 07:39:57	Will Sato play for G2 Esports in 2027?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xf906ab…
10-27 07:39:57	Will Sato play for G2 Esports in 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x68fb50…
10-27 02:13:26	Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rot"?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe0054b…
10-27 02:13:20	Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rot"?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x34d936…
10-26 23:44:11	Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "maxx"?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x1667e5…
10-26 23:43:11	Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "maxx"?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x8b32e4…
10-26 23:43:11	Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "maxx"?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x62797d…
10-26 23:11:29	bill maher visits white house again in 2026	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xd9c78a…
10-26 23:10:30	bill maher visits white house again in 2026	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0x1224f5…
10-26 23:10:30	bill maher visits white house again in 2026	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x0ce776…
10-26 23:10:30	bill maher visits white house again in 2026	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x077dc7…
10-26 21:41:17	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xcb34b2…
10-26 21:41:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xfd1530…
10-26 21:41:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x958bb3…
10-26 21:41:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x8ae608…
10-26 21:41:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x7073ba…
10-26 21:41:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x17b084…
10-26 17:52:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf355a2…
10-26 17:52:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0xea07f7…
10-26 17:52:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0x8624c5…
10-26 17:52:26	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa8f51f…
10-26 17:52:26	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0x8707b8…
10-26 17:52:26	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1c0047…
10-26 17:38:24	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x49d1d8…
10-26 17:31:29	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xb8815a…
10-26 17:12:29	Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xe81684…
10-26 17:05:50	Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xd97493…
10-26 13:38:42	Will kiNgg play for G2 Esports in 2027?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xf48d26…
10-26 13:38:26	Will kiNgg play for G2 Esports in 2027?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0cc1fe…
10-26 13:09:11	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x13d3b5…
10-26 13:08:23	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xc6b08d…
10-26 13:08:23	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x3f4770…
10-26 11:33:41	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x53f25b…
10-26 11:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9db1c1…
10-26 11:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x9c030a…
10-26 07:42:50	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x76f4a5…
10-26 07:42:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x48247a…
10-26 06:34:30	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xcf349b…
10-26 03:00:57	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x3c5372…
10-26 03:00:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc9174c…
10-26 03:00:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x9c08c4…
10-26 03:00:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x7db217…
10-26 03:00:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x61d8d1…
10-26 03:00:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4063e7…
10-26 03:00:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x1d8a4b…
10-26 00:51:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xf5ce57…
10-26 00:48:56	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x303cd4…
10-26 00:32:59	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0xdbf8d7…
10-25 21:03:45	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xd3f029…
10-25 21:03:44	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x1854cf…
10-25 06:48:14	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x6ec001…
10-25 06:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x41229f…
10-25 04:55:57	Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xcdf3a3…
10-25 04:45:42	Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x788063…
10-25 04:12:05	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xb1ba3f…
10-25 04:11:54	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xd44602…
10-25 04:11:53	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xa71a80…
10-25 04:10:23	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x5df4b5…
10-25 04:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xe3a185…
10-25 02:27:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x4ed6b4…
10-25 02:25:21	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xaeda72…
10-25 01:27:26	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xdc8848…
10-25 01:27:26	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x6cee66…
10-25 01:07:54	Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0x7e4ffa…
10-24 23:28:59	Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xfbf827…
10-24 23:28:59	Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xeca5fe…
10-24 16:45:38	Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa32478…
10-24 16:43:11	Rain during the United States Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x29e3a0…
10-24 04:32:59	Will Vozinha attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x86b8e5…
10-24 04:22:17	Will Vozinha attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xd5e383…
10-24 03:12:48	Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x238c5d…
10-24 03:12:41	Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xcf6210…
10-24 03:12:41	Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x6d5a6d…
10-24 03:12:41	Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x24450e…
10-23 20:47:23	Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x615667…
10-23 20:44:05	Rain during the United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0xbc12f1…
10-23 20:33:59	Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb4a220…
10-23 19:36:36	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	SELL	60	13¢	$8	0x3ae2c0…
10-23 16:38:02	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x9b0edc…
10-23 15:45:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x137dde…
10-23 15:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 25?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xb41a17…
10-23 15:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 25?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x20c293…
10-23 15:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 25?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x0becec…