Regular-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

25.6%

Resolved

Trades

324

lifetime

Volume

$3.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$146

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 07-12 05:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 20% $-24

Politics

14% — —

Other

13% — —

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+60	$42	72¢	$44	+$2	07-11 15:31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$39	86¢	$43	+$4	06-22 13:25
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+40	$24	80¢	$32	+$8	06-30 16:47
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	+30	$24	90¢	$27	+$3	06-20 11:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$144	80	80	+0	open	—	07-02 07:18
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	4	$97	80	80	+0	open	—	06-03 17:24
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	2	$84	64	64	+0	open	—	07-12 05:36
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	3	$68	50	50	+0	open	—	06-03 10:35
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	4	$68	48	48	-0	open	—	06-17 17:38
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	8	$59	60	60	+0	open	—	05-28 13:00
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	2	$54	30	30	+0	open	—	06-26 21:35
btc updown 15m 1780740900	4	$48	58	46	+12	open	—	06-06 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	4	$48	35	35	+0	open	—	05-18 18:58
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	2	$46	37	18	+18	open	—	07-09 20:18
btc updown 15m 1783516500	4	$45	27	27	+0	open	—	07-08 13:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$45	33	33	+0	open	—	04-29 15:38
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$45	100	0	+100	open	—	07-01 08:13
btc updown 15m 1782720900	4	$44	30	30	+0	open	—	06-29 08:26
btc updown 15m 1781259300	5	$43	30	30	+0	open	—	06-12 10:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	3	$42	30	30	+0	open	—	05-28 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	4	$42	31	31	+0	open	—	05-27 17:42
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$42	60	0	+60	open	—	07-11 15:31
btc updown 15m 1782238500	6	$39	37	37	+0	open	—	06-23 18:27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$39	50	0	+50	open	—	06-22 13:25
btc updown 15m 1783512000	7	$39	25	25	+0	open	—	07-08 12:13
btc updown 15m 1781623800	5	$39	27	27	+0	open	—	06-16 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	3	$37	23	23	+0	open	—	04-28 17:10
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	2	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	07-01 06:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	4	$36	22	22	+0	open	—	05-19 08:56
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	3	$36	53	53	+0	open	—	06-30 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	2	$36	28	28	+0	open	—	04-29 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	4	$36	23	23	+0	open	—	05-01 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$36	22	22	+0	open	—	05-01 15:41
btc updown 15m 1781624700	6	$36	22	22	+0	open	—	06-16 15:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 05:56:55	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	SELL	31	41¢	$13	0x59203a…
07-12 05:50:41	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	55	10¢	$6	0xa09d5a…
07-12 05:36:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	64	52¢	$33	0xf21dc8…
07-11 15:31:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x540ef9…
07-09 20:18:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x5a2493…
07-08 20:43:01	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	37	80¢	$30	0x21d9d9…
07-08 13:26:46	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x880ef8…
07-08 13:25:26	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xf3b76e…
07-08 13:25:04	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xc258f4…
07-08 13:22:55	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x4ea317…
07-08 12:13:19	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0xbd219e…
07-08 12:13:07	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x76ecc5…
07-08 12:13:05	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0x8c5f7b…
07-08 12:07:31	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xabde4b…
07-08 12:07:31	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x2c49f0…
07-08 12:07:29	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xd1298e…
07-08 12:06:40	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xb2062f…
07-08 09:27:37	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	64	79¢	$51	0x16948e…
07-05 06:35:38	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0xc2ab32…
07-03 09:27:13	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xac58be…
07-03 09:27:13	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x7e8396…
07-03 09:27:13	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x6908a4…
07-03 09:26:44	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x101a3b…
07-03 09:20:25	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x47273c…
07-02 15:51:22	btc updown 15m 1783007100	Up	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0xdd27cd…
07-02 15:46:50	btc updown 15m 1783007100	Up	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0xba313c…
07-02 15:24:23	btc updown 15m 1783005300	Down	SELL	25	18¢	$4	0x1707b4…
07-02 15:20:16	btc updown 15m 1783005300	Down	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xd37b91…
07-02 09:49:34	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	38	81¢	$31	0x82dedd…
07-02 07:18:02	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xf99612…
07-01 08:13:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xd08201…
07-01 07:00:25	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x085f4d…
07-01 06:49:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xede799…
06-30 19:43:49	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	SELL	13	29¢	$4	0xe62764…
06-30 19:38:35	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0x3d0987…
06-30 16:47:08	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x8cb1a9…
06-30 16:36:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xa5e516…
06-30 09:54:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xc3bce8…
06-30 08:56:28	btc updown 15m 1782809100	Up	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0x593954…
06-30 08:55:02	btc updown 15m 1782809100	Up	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x7b9cff…
06-30 08:50:31	btc updown 15m 1782809100	Up	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x48b292…
06-30 06:12:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xf8b18c…
06-30 06:12:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xc49c46…
06-29 16:12:56	btc updown 15m 1782748800	Up	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0xeabc4a…
06-29 16:07:28	btc updown 15m 1782748800	Up	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x3776c0…
06-29 08:26:26	btc updown 15m 1782720900	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xf7e9c5…
06-29 08:26:26	btc updown 15m 1782720900	Down	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x22d202…
06-29 08:25:20	btc updown 15m 1782720900	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x5f72c1…
06-29 08:22:37	btc updown 15m 1782720900	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x876dcc…
06-28 05:47:31	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x63dfab…
06-26 21:35:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xdda659…
06-26 12:26:16	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x8189d3…
06-26 12:24:58	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x5fe78a…
06-26 10:27:29	btc updown 15m 1782468900	Down	SELL	26	26¢	$7	0xc12dfe…
06-26 10:22:43	btc updown 15m 1782468900	Down	BUY	26	47¢	$12	0xfcb905…
06-25 07:31:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xff2ce1…
06-23 18:27:58	btc updown 15m 1782238500	Down	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0xb1d919…
06-23 18:27:58	btc updown 15m 1782238500	Down	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x959c1d…
06-23 18:27:58	btc updown 15m 1782238500	Down	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x730f1c…
06-23 18:25:25	btc updown 15m 1782238500	Down	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0xefc694…
06-23 18:25:23	btc updown 15m 1782238500	Down	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x0f9e8f…
06-23 18:22:34	btc updown 15m 1782238500	Down	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x31b533…
06-23 14:55:38	btc updown 15m 1782225900	Up	SELL	25	37¢	$9	0x824fd3…
06-23 14:51:37	btc updown 15m 1782225900	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x279837…
06-23 09:11:43	btc updown 15m 1782205200	Down	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0x89ab6b…
06-23 09:10:16	btc updown 15m 1782205200	Down	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0x9a14c1…
06-23 09:09:16	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	55	28¢	$15	0x941850…
06-23 08:56:28	btc updown 15m 1782204300	Down	SELL	26	25¢	$6	0x0014b3…
06-23 08:46:58	btc updown 15m 1782204300	Down	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x735685…
06-23 07:56:28	btc updown 15m 1782200700	Up	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x29740d…
06-23 07:55:22	btc updown 15m 1782200700	Up	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0xd0c91c…
06-23 07:55:20	btc updown 15m 1782200700	Up	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xbb1c1e…
06-23 07:52:25	btc updown 15m 1782200700	Up	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x93fe7e…
06-22 17:14:16	btc updown 15m 1782147600	Down	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x6014e5…
06-22 17:12:55	btc updown 15m 1782147600	Down	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0xecc7a1…
06-22 17:12:53	btc updown 15m 1782147600	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x2175a3…
06-22 17:08:19	btc updown 15m 1782147600	Down	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xd9e606…
06-22 17:05:32	btc updown 15m 1782147600	Down	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x889fd3…
06-22 13:25:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xa0ca75…
06-22 13:16:04	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x6314ce…
06-22 13:06:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	18	75¢	$14	0x4992d2…
06-20 11:11:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x9ccf67…
06-18 19:07:01	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xdf03fe…
06-18 17:16:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x8c9ef3…
06-18 06:33:52	will stripes valuation hit high 180b by june 30	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xccfecf…
06-17 17:38:19	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x0eb6a9…
06-17 16:54:34	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xccfe8d…
06-17 16:16:56	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0xf60ffb…
06-17 13:09:46	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x9c1cd0…
06-17 13:08:10	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x51b5bd…
06-17 13:08:04	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x0845ec…
06-17 13:08:01	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0xc7bead…
06-17 13:07:32	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x719bf9…
06-17 13:05:49	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x58892a…
06-17 09:46:10	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0x61b1c3…
06-17 09:43:23	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0xb6f0bd…
06-17 08:50:31	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x60cde3…
06-16 15:57:25	btc updown 15m 1781624700	Up	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x608fe8…
06-16 15:55:08	btc updown 15m 1781624700	Up	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0xfc5192…
06-16 15:55:07	btc updown 15m 1781624700	Up	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xdc5117…