Regular-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

25.6%

Resolved

Trades

381

lifetime

Volume

$4.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 08-01 09:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 20% $-24

Politics

23% — —

Other

14% — —

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$144	80	80	+0	open	—	07-02 07:18
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	7	$104	115	62	+53	open	—	08-01 09:27
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	7	$97	103	68	+35	open	—	07-29 10:45
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	4	$97	80	80	+0	open	—	06-03 17:24
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	2	$84	64	64	+0	open	—	07-12 05:36
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	3	$68	50	50	+0	open	—	06-03 10:35
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	2	$68	38	38	+0	open	—	07-28 15:34
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	4	$68	48	48	-0	open	—	06-17 17:38
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	07-28 15:38
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	2	$61	35	35	+0	open	—	07-28 15:35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	8	$59	60	60	+0	open	—	05-28 13:00
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	2	$54	30	30	+0	open	—	06-26 21:35
btc updown 15m 1780740900	4	$48	58	46	+12	open	—	06-06 10:28
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	2	$48	40	40	+0	open	—	07-29 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	4	$48	35	35	+0	open	—	05-18 18:58
btc updown 15m 1783961100	6	$47	28	28	+0	open	—	07-13 16:56
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	2	$46	37	18	+18	open	—	07-09 20:18
btc updown 15m 1783516500	4	$45	27	27	+0	open	—	07-08 13:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$45	33	33	+0	open	—	04-29 15:38
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$45	100	0	+100	open	—	07-01 08:13
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	6	$45	85	0	+85	open	—	07-20 15:44
btc updown 15m 1782720900	4	$44	30	30	+0	open	—	06-29 08:26
btc updown 15m 1781259300	5	$43	30	30	+0	open	—	06-12 10:27
btc updown 15m 1784126700	5	$43	26	26	+0	open	—	07-15 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	3	$42	30	30	+0	open	—	05-28 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	4	$42	31	31	+0	open	—	05-27 17:42
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$42	60	0	+60	open	—	07-11 15:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	2	$41	51	0	+51	open	—	07-29 10:53
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$41	52	0	+52	open	—	08-01 09:26
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	1	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	08-01 09:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 09:35:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x8569ed…
08-01 09:31:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	82	25¢	$20	0x0c959a…
08-01 09:28:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	38	67¢	$25	0x4eb816…
08-01 09:27:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	53	67¢	$36	0x673bde…
08-01 09:26:05	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	52	78¢	$41	0x6eaf64…
08-01 09:24:35	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xfc81e5…
07-29 10:55:56	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x7bb859…
07-29 10:53:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x1b860a…
07-29 10:52:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xe42464…
07-29 10:48:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	40	56¢	$22	0x3c35eb…
07-29 10:45:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x52368d…
07-29 10:44:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	28	27¢	$8	0xd6fe6f…
07-28 15:38:55	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x4236e2…
07-28 15:35:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xb11448…
07-28 15:34:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x15f074…
07-27 14:22:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x8e5e72…
07-26 09:18:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0x4f9585…
07-26 09:08:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0xde2e25…
07-26 09:07:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0xe9da24…
07-26 09:06:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	30	59¢	$18	0x9fe6e1…
07-26 08:55:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	62	45¢	$28	0x0414ee…
07-25 05:58:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xff2dcb…
07-24 16:49:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xb69d23…
07-22 20:27:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0xd9858c…
07-20 17:14:55	btc updown 15m 1784566800	Down	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0xb37fde…
07-20 17:08:36	btc updown 15m 1784566800	Down	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x3833d3…
07-20 15:44:48	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0xe61ebe…
07-20 15:44:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xccd2e6…
07-20 15:44:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x5f5321…
07-20 15:44:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xa4b86a…
07-20 15:44:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x42dad9…
07-19 19:08:43	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xae31a7…
07-18 21:13:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x5656d1…
07-17 15:56:01	btc updown 15m 1784303100	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x8378f3…
07-17 15:56:00	btc updown 15m 1784303100	Up	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x6c625b…
07-17 15:54:27	btc updown 15m 1784303100	Up	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x3aaaf6…
07-17 15:53:34	btc updown 15m 1784303100	Up	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x51dc67…
07-16 21:10:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xf41b1d…
07-16 21:09:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x34b48c…
07-16 21:09:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0xe39a2a…
07-16 21:09:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xba2a60…
07-16 21:09:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	33	65¢	$22	0x38a595…
07-16 15:56:56	btc updown 15m 1784216700	Up	SELL	31	23¢	$7	0xe470e1…
07-16 15:50:35	btc updown 15m 1784216700	Up	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x760b92…
07-15 14:52:46	btc updown 15m 1784126700	Up	SELL	21	89¢	$18	0xb9769f…
07-15 14:52:44	btc updown 15m 1784126700	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xb7f43f…
07-15 14:52:44	btc updown 15m 1784126700	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x3af3b0…
07-15 14:50:23	btc updown 15m 1784126700	Up	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xa83140…
07-13 17:08:08	btc updown 15m 1783962000	Down	SELL	28	28¢	$8	0xce73b9…
07-13 17:06:25	btc updown 15m 1783962000	Down	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x207fcf…
07-13 16:56:22	btc updown 15m 1783961100	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xc31446…
07-13 16:56:22	btc updown 15m 1783961100	Down	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x0241e0…
07-13 16:54:46	btc updown 15m 1783961100	Down	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xd20ccc…
07-13 16:54:46	btc updown 15m 1783961100	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x4d12e9…
07-13 16:54:46	btc updown 15m 1783961100	Down	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x474a5a…
07-13 16:53:50	btc updown 15m 1783961100	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xfd1d6f…
07-12 05:56:55	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	SELL	31	41¢	$13	0x59203a…
07-12 05:50:41	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	55	10¢	$6	0xa09d5a…
07-12 05:36:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	64	52¢	$33	0xf21dc8…
07-11 15:31:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x540ef9…
07-09 20:18:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x5a2493…
07-08 20:43:01	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	37	80¢	$30	0x21d9d9…
07-08 13:26:46	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x880ef8…
07-08 13:25:26	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xf3b76e…
07-08 13:25:04	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xc258f4…
07-08 13:22:55	btc updown 15m 1783516500	Down	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x4ea317…
07-08 12:13:19	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0xbd219e…
07-08 12:13:07	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x76ecc5…
07-08 12:13:05	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0x8c5f7b…
07-08 12:07:31	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xabde4b…
07-08 12:07:31	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x2c49f0…
07-08 12:07:29	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xd1298e…
07-08 12:06:40	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xb2062f…
07-08 09:27:37	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	64	79¢	$51	0x16948e…
07-05 06:35:38	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0xc2ab32…
07-03 09:27:13	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xac58be…
07-03 09:27:13	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x7e8396…
07-03 09:27:13	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x6908a4…
07-03 09:26:44	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x101a3b…
07-03 09:20:25	btc updown 15m 1783070100	Down	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x47273c…
07-02 15:51:22	btc updown 15m 1783007100	Up	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0xdd27cd…
07-02 15:46:50	btc updown 15m 1783007100	Up	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0xba313c…
07-02 15:24:23	btc updown 15m 1783005300	Down	SELL	25	18¢	$4	0x1707b4…
07-02 15:20:16	btc updown 15m 1783005300	Down	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0xd37b91…
07-02 09:49:34	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	38	81¢	$31	0x82dedd…
07-02 07:18:02	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xf99612…
07-01 08:13:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xd08201…
07-01 07:00:25	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x085f4d…
07-01 06:49:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xede799…
06-30 19:43:49	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	SELL	13	29¢	$4	0xe62764…
06-30 19:38:35	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0x3d0987…
06-30 16:47:08	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x8cb1a9…
06-30 16:36:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xa5e516…
06-30 09:54:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xc3bce8…
06-30 08:56:28	btc updown 15m 1782809100	Up	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0x593954…
06-30 08:55:02	btc updown 15m 1782809100	Up	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x7b9cff…
06-30 08:50:31	btc updown 15m 1782809100	Up	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x48b292…
06-30 06:12:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xf8b18c…
06-30 06:12:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xc49c46…
06-29 16:12:56	btc updown 15m 1782748800	Up	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0xeabc4a…