Complicated-Skull — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.65K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

68.1%

Resolved

Trades

171

lifetime

Volume

$26.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 10-24 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 60% -$4,643

Other

2% 81% -$14

Politics

0% 88% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$3

Sports

0% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No		+3	$2	97¢	$3	+$1	08-01 14:07
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes		+3	$3	84¢	$3	$0	10-05 16:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:00 UTC	6	$3.6K	2,822	2,785	+38	Up	+$142	03-13 13:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 12:20 UTC	13	$3.6K	6,766	0	+6,766	Up	-$3,609	03-13 12:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:50 UTC	2	$2.5K	1,267	1,267	+0	Up	+$49	03-13 13:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 12:55 UTC	2	$2.4K	1,282	1,280	+3	Up	+$103	03-13 12:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:25 UTC	2	$2.1K	1,485	1,480	+6	Down	-$377	03-13 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:45 UTC	2	$2.1K	1,134	1,129	+5	Up	+$170	03-13 13:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:35 UTC	2	$1.9K	973	972	+0	Down	+$20	03-13 13:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:50 UTC	2	$1.8K	1,134	1,123	+11	Down	+$191	03-13 14:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	9	$1.8K	950	949	+1	Up	+$72	03-13 14:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 16:10 UTC	3	$1.1K	1,353	211	+1,142	Up	-$1,013	03-13 16:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:05 UTC	2	$742	716	708	+8	Down	-$258	03-13 13:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 15:00 UTC	2	$312	217	214	+3	Down	+$115	03-13 15:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:10 UTC	6	$306	220	217	+3	Up	+$109	03-13 13:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	14	$297	233	229	+4	Down	+$100	03-13 14:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:40 UTC	2	$287	192	189	+3	Down	+$90	03-13 14:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:20 UTC	1	$200	422	0	+422	Down	-$200	03-13 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:45 UTC	1	$200	391	0	+391	Down	-$200	03-13 14:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 15:05 UTC	1	$100	208	0	+208	Up	-$100	03-13 15:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 16:05 UTC	1	$100	136	0	+136	Up	-$100	03-13 16:09
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	2	$70	38	38	+0	No	+$1	02-25 12:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 13:15 UTC	1	$50	100	0	+100	Up	+$50	03-13 13:15
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-30 08:45
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$34	35	0	+35	No	+$0	02-23 14:38
lol jdg al 2026 02 26	4	$29	41	41	+0	JD Gaming	-$1	02-26 10:34
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 280 299	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$1	02-27 08:42
will crude oil cl hit low 45 by end of march 524 288 596 421 318 497 667 674 276 275	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-26 13:24
highest temperature in nyc on march 1 2026 42 43f	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	-$20	03-01 17:33
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	2	$19	11	11	+0	Yes	-$1	02-27 11:22
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	04-03 15:39
will houston win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$14	8	8	+0	No	$0	03-25 07:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 14:26:56	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x81b40c…
10-18 09:38:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x0bfdeb…
10-12 13:13:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x12daed…
10-05 16:09:40	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xf6a176…
09-29 16:26:15	Will Spain win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xfe0e4f…
09-19 04:48:04	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xb1b3c3…
09-04 09:47:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xa9cf02…
08-28 08:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa3273e…
08-07 15:46:54	lol shft gx 2026 08 07	Shifters	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9e8ac8…
08-01 14:07:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x0b791d…
07-13 07:45:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x99a4c6…
07-04 17:40:19	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x94ee7b…
07-01 10:55:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8bdc51…
06-25 21:59:28	Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xefd539…
06-25 21:33:05	Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x6aae98…
06-25 20:18:34	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	45	7¢	$3	0x3ee0cc…
06-25 20:07:07	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x2b7966…
06-22 18:02:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x71d31a…
06-16 18:41:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x4009c5…
06-11 20:20:19	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xff4ba2…
06-05 19:02:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xd806f8…
06-02 14:39:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc36a62…
06-02 14:38:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe93daa…
05-29 18:20:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x933578…
05-29 06:39:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x506034…
05-27 17:21:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x61ca49…
05-23 14:14:42	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc98020…
05-23 14:13:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x651944…
05-19 16:28:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x4ffcc2…
05-14 09:02:28	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xfc950b…
05-13 09:59:51	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xd4465a…
05-11 21:43:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x46c1a1…
05-10 18:28:50	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x99bf1c…
05-07 19:49:11	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe2b937…
05-05 06:48:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x39e6f7…
05-03 10:37:18	LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BNK FEARX	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xab8ece…
05-02 07:16:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x92ab3e…
04-30 08:59:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xae5e1b…
04-26 08:46:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x6a9659…
04-24 14:24:30	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xbb2885…
04-24 14:23:54	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 300 319	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x49364e…
04-21 12:26:40	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 300 319	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xf59d7e…
04-18 09:46:16	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x9323e7…
04-16 08:40:16	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x6f4d27…
04-13 13:01:59	lol wb al 2026 04 14	Weibo Gaming	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x80721b…
04-12 12:47:15	lol wb blg 2026 04 12	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xcc8e48…
04-12 12:45:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x2bcf19…
04-11 08:23:43	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 220 239	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0c7d46…
04-08 12:43:11	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x140dc4…
04-08 12:42:53	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x1123cf…
04-06 05:21:25	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 300 319	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x248a34…
04-06 05:20:43	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 380 399	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3d12cf…
04-03 15:41:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x3a0592…
04-03 15:39:43	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6dab65…
04-02 02:33:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x7d63fe…
04-01 03:25:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x9ab407…
03-30 08:46:50	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x7b3044…
03-30 08:45:44	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x1c1377…
03-28 02:45:33	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 340 359	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0x151e3f…
03-26 13:25:19	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 340 359	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9b2a1a…
03-26 13:24:45	will crude oil cl hit low 45 by end of march 524 288 596 421 318 497 667 674 276 275	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xebafd3…
03-25 07:52:11	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xaf4912…
03-25 07:51:47	will houston win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x8236e8…
03-21 05:35:13	will houston win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x8cfc9a…
03-18 17:59:25	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xa26d02…
03-16 07:03:29	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 380 399	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8a4e30…
03-13 16:14:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1,139	85¢	$971	0x2f42ee…
03-13 16:11:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 16:10 UTC	Down	SELL	211	28¢	$59	0xb9715b…
03-13 16:10:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	215	47¢	$100	0x2c5832…
03-13 16:09:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	136	74¢	$100	0xd6aa79…
03-13 15:05:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 15:05 UTC	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x037b57…
03-13 15:05:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 15:00 UTC	Down	SELL	214	99¢	$212	0xc743da…
03-13 14:59:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x29181d…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xf52249…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xec645b…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xea7030…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	81	86¢	$70	0xda935f…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xb64c10…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x9ca28b…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x885bdf…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x5ce12b…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x553da4…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	24	86¢	$21	0x51fff1…
03-13 14:57:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	25	86¢	$22	0x3b5efb…
03-13 14:57:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0xf0a95e…
03-13 14:57:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0xca7642…
03-13 14:55:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0xa43a66…
03-13 14:53:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:50 UTC	Down	SELL	1,123	90¢	$1,007	0x149168…
03-13 14:52:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1,134	73¢	$827	0x348dfd…
03-13 14:45:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:40 UTC	Down	SELL	189	99¢	$187	0xacab0c…
03-13 14:44:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	391	51¢	$200	0x6c720a…
03-13 14:38:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x68bf85…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$4	0xf08bf1…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0xb878e9…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb75f25…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	711	99¢	$704	0x9e44d7…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x7cbfad…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x523ca2…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x28fb0d…
03-13 14:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x270e7f…