Sophisticated-Custard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$280

Unrealized P&L

+$36

Hit rate

86.8%

Resolved

129

Trades

261

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$305

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-29 08:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

58% 72% +$364

Politics

23% 76% +$150

Crypto

11% 75% +$136

Tech

7% 62% -$183

Sports

2% 0% -$188

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+108	$100	98¢	$105	+$5	05-14 07:56
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+96	$50	70¢	$68	+$18	09-12 14:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+47	$40	94¢	$44	+$4	05-23 04:55
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+45	$30	86¢	$38	+$8	05-02 19:39
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	No	+100	$35	34¢	$34	-$2	09-22 20:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+20	$14	82¢	$16	+$2	05-02 06:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will google gemini 3 score at least 50 on the frontiermath benchmark	12	$666	369	489	-120	No	+$75	01-24 07:32
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	12	$627	348	358	-10	No	+$29	01-19 13:14
will google gemini 3 score at least 70 on the frontiermath benchmark	8	$422	225	225	+0	No	+$22	01-17 11:12
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	2	$271	179	179	+0	No	+$71	02-15 13:40
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 222 434 555 498 766	3	$234	140	140	+0	No	+$7	02-13 09:26
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$210	119	119	+0	No	+$10	01-30 19:30
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$5	03-29 19:28
will there be at least 1150 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 917	2	$192	200	0	+200	No	+$8	02-28 07:02
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	3	$192	200	0	+200	Yes	+$8	03-03 19:07
will bitcoin reach 102k january 12 18	3	$187	100	100	+0	No	+$7	01-16 03:57
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$170	100	100	+0	Yes	+$30	04-22 16:43
will artemis ii launch by march 31	3	$152	100	100	+0	No	+$47	03-27 23:57
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by february 28	2	$146	100	100	+0	No	+$16	02-02 14:57
will usd reach 1pt5m iranian rials by january 31	5	$140	190	100	+90	Yes	-$66	01-26 19:45
will microstrategy announce holding 680k btc by january 31	5	$139	100	100	+0	Yes	+$13	01-06 15:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$120	65	65	+0	No	+$9	04-04 20:01
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	4	$117	300	450	-150	No	-$108	02-17 18:18
will morocco win the caf africa cup of nations morocco 2025	2	$112	100	50	+50	No	+$22	01-18 21:43
will there be at least 1200 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 152 495 466 979 817	3	$111	130	0	+130	No	+$19	02-07 06:29
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	3	$110	120	120	+0	No	-$100	02-17 18:18
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	2	$106	60	60	+0	No	+$13	03-29 19:27
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	2	$103	53	53	+0	Yes	+$3	07-19 21:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$100	127	0	+127	No	+$27	09-13 14:12
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	1	$100	128	0	+128	Yes	-$100	07-07 04:51
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$100	127	0	+127	Yes	+$27	09-12 14:47
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	05-14 07:56
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	1	$100	118	0	+118	open	—	09-12 14:49
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$1	02-28 05:38
will israel or the us target tehran 812	1	$98	100	0	+100	Yes	+$2	02-28 06:49
will grok 4pt20 not be released by march 31 2026	1	$97	100	0	+100	No	+$3	02-15 07:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-29 08:16:26	Perfect Order Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box Price Over/Under $121.84 on September 30?	Under	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x0b45d6…
09-26 11:00:48	Perfect Order Booster Box Price Over/Under $171.57 on September 30?	Under	SELL	25	10¢	$3	0x379c3d…
09-26 10:59:02	Perfect Order Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box Price Over/Under $121.84 on September 30?	Under	SELL	49	11¢	$5	0xb6d1c6…
09-23 14:15:05	Gengar (Cosmos Holo) — EB Games Exclusive Price Over/Under $182.61 on September 30?	Under	SELL	89	31¢	$27	0xaee792…
09-22 20:42:06	Gengar (Cosmos Holo) — EB Games Exclusive Price Over/Under $182.61 on September 30?	Under	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x32854e…
09-22 20:38:44	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x314de3…
09-22 10:04:52	Perfect Order Booster Box Price Over/Under $171.57 on September 30?	Under	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x039381…
09-21 20:44:40	Perfect Order Booster Box Price Over/Under $171.57 on September 30?	Under	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0x6f9dc8…
09-21 20:42:57	Perfect Order Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box Price Over/Under $121.84 on September 30?	Under	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0x879108…
09-21 20:35:13	Gengar (Cosmos Holo) — EB Games Exclusive Price Over/Under $182.61 on September 30?	Under	BUY	59	22¢	$13	0x856098…
09-19 21:55:42	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	SELL	69	67¢	$47	0x123181…
09-13 20:58:39	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xcf5ae3…
09-13 14:12:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x6c8995…
09-12 14:49:55	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x5bd79e…
09-12 14:49:10	Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x107075…
09-12 14:47:22	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xba0bf6…
07-19 21:34:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x42a0cf…
07-19 21:33:45	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x2b5ebb…
07-19 21:11:43	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x7d0539…
07-19 20:40:21	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xd5b9f1…
07-07 04:51:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x0c08dd…
06-07 01:25:30	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	111	25¢	$27	0x83b8d4…
05-23 04:56:04	Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x716cec…
05-23 04:55:04	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0x6d9a63…
05-14 07:56:03	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xfb7166…
05-14 07:52:28	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,040	1¢	$16	0xbfb26a…
05-02 19:39:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x1159d7…
05-02 15:35:44	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	84	6¢	$5	0x839766…
05-02 14:24:12	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xa30280…
05-02 14:13:46	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x7fd28c…
05-02 14:13:34	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0x8125d5…
05-02 07:42:38	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x29ccac…
05-02 06:38:22	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x069698…
05-02 06:36:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x9503db…
05-02 06:33:30	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	57	15¢	$9	0xdcf7ac…
04-27 20:20:24	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0xd3c940…
04-22 16:43:58	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x03fcf3…
04-22 16:43:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xdc9454…
04-22 16:43:28	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x78aec6…
04-22 16:43:10	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf33afb…
04-22 16:42:28	Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x581193…
04-21 01:58:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x75d8be…
04-20 03:38:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xe19c8b…
04-20 03:25:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x49ed7b…
04-20 03:17:36	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0x7fc827…
04-20 03:14:54	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0xc6197f…
04-19 03:18:56	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x38c35d…
04-18 08:03:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xca7d90…
04-18 07:56:06	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x853256…
04-17 19:18:06	internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x966afb…
04-17 19:15:14	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	62	15¢	$9	0x72485b…
04-17 19:14:56	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x4c9ba3…
04-16 07:21:42	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x440396…
04-15 18:30:46	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xf69a77…
04-10 06:27:07	Will Trump say "Trump Vodka" or "Trump Steak" in April?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x7f8bc4…
04-04 20:01:19	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x3c0c4f…
04-04 20:01:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0xd35221…
04-04 19:58:01	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x2f070c…
04-04 19:53:07	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xfd730a…
04-04 18:41:11	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0x12b678…
04-03 18:56:21	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x3f4342…
04-03 18:51:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xf04654…
04-03 08:58:53	Will Trump say "Trump Vodka" or "Trump Steak" in April?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x3da34f…
03-31 21:07:35	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x4720c9…
03-31 19:55:59	any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	No	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x7f81f3…
03-31 19:52:03	uef bih ita 2026 03 31 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x959b59…
03-31 19:42:07	any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xfe5034…
03-31 19:24:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0xba6ff5…
03-31 19:24:39	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x02b8e7…
03-30 18:40:01	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0xd443f5…
03-30 18:38:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	129	31¢	$40	0xe130cb…
03-29 19:31:14	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x7b8038…
03-29 19:28:32	will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 795 942	No	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0xa030fb…
03-29 19:28:10	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf75068…
03-29 19:27:42	will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 696 531 583 497	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xc59864…
03-29 19:27:34	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x070fed…
03-29 19:27:26	will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 495 233 864 361	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xa767ee…
03-29 19:27:12	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x8554ee…
03-28 21:47:46	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	65	86¢	$56	0xace15b…
03-27 23:57:13	will artemis ii launch by march 31	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0xce48c8…
03-27 23:57:01	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x658446…
03-25 19:58:23	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x280ecd…
03-25 19:57:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc3d8e9…
03-25 19:57:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf31ae5…
03-25 19:56:25	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xe17d4c…
03-25 19:55:47	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x6799bf…
03-21 21:11:47	will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 795 942	No	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x183bd5…
03-21 21:11:21	will artemis ii launch by march 31	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0xf6368d…
03-21 10:18:19	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	43	80¢	$34	0x2c06b2…
03-20 05:56:29	foreign intervention in gaza by april 30	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x0f5843…
03-18 21:03:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	80	89¢	$71	0xf62b03…
03-17 09:36:13	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0xff44ac…
03-16 23:04:29	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xa522a0…
03-16 17:32:45	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$45	0xcfb6da…
03-16 04:50:03	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x4db447…
03-15 21:24:13	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xe98441…
03-15 20:55:33	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xa917b3…
03-15 18:59:53	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	71¢	$43	0x99f173…
03-15 18:59:21	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xb60dd0…
03-15 13:56:43	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xe3e291…