Harmless-Minor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-27 04:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 94% -$2

Other

38% 93% -$5

Politics

12% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 620 639	1	$95	95	+95	No	+$0	01-06 06:19
bitcoin above 84k on january 11	1	$93	93	+93	Yes	+$0	01-10 07:30
will israel strike lebanon on january 13 2026	1	$92	92	+92	No	+$0	01-15 07:50
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1?	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	06-01 08:41
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	05-20 02:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	05-26 09:28
bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	06-06 03:20
bitcoin above 58k on june 9 2026	1	$90	90	+90	Yes	+$0	06-09 08:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	05-15 08:13
will the price of bitcoin be between 84000 86000 on january 19	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	01-19 07:59
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	05-07 02:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	05-13 06:37
bitcoin above 98k on january 24	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	01-23 03:07
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	04-02 07:53
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	05-10 10:45
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	04-06 08:22
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 440 459	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	03-28 11:26
bitcoin above 76k on march 24	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	03-24 10:42
bitcoin above 60k on march 16	1	$89	89	+89	Yes	+$0	03-14 10:46
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 440 459	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	03-09 10:55
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 240plus	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	03-19 03:15
bitcoin above 60k on march 4	1	$88	88	+88	Yes	+$0	03-04 03:28
bitcoin above 78k on april 11	1	$86	86	+86	No	+$0	04-11 06:53
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 480 499	1	$86	86	+86	No	+$0	02-28 02:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$86	86	+86	No	+$0	04-29 11:17
ethereum above 2100 on april 21	1	$86	86	+86	Yes	+$0	04-21 06:35
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 260 279	1	$86	86	+86	No	+$0	01-31 09:42
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26?	1	$85	85	+85	Yes	+$0	04-26 02:08
bitcoin above 78k on january 28	1	$85	85	+85	Yes	+$0	01-27 08:48
ethereum above 2500 on february 5	1	$85	85	+85	No	+$0	02-05 03:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:16:57	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x5d973a…
09-27 10:56:57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x105819…
09-27 10:56:20	atp overbe tabacc 2026 09 27	Fausto Tabacco	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2eee26…
08-23 14:02:24	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0xa719ef…
08-23 13:57:13	Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	520	0¢	$2	0x8cb602…
06-09 08:08:37	bitcoin above 58k on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x0eb729…
06-06 03:20:57	bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xf2b8ee…
06-01 08:41:25	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x6d0c4b…
05-26 09:28:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x75ee9d…
05-20 02:19:43	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x41b996…
05-15 08:13:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x1ef062…
05-13 06:37:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x816a36…
05-10 10:45:04	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x7a190b…
05-07 02:46:43	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x2d7e52…
04-29 11:17:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x3c807a…
04-26 02:08:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x316ca1…
04-21 06:35:42	ethereum above 2100 on april 21	Yes	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0xec8127…
04-16 06:20:10	bitcoin above 70k on april 16	Yes	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xb84e2c…
04-16 06:20:02	donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 180 199	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x24479e…
04-16 06:19:44	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f682d…
04-16 06:19:30	Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x44ef7b…
04-11 06:53:53	bitcoin above 78k on april 11	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0xae43d5…
04-11 06:53:33	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x27c53a…
04-11 06:53:17	highest temperature in nyc on april 11 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9186b5…
04-06 08:22:57	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xb581ed…
04-02 07:53:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xd0e8cf…
03-28 11:26:07	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 440 459	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xba78bd…
03-24 10:42:41	bitcoin above 76k on march 24	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xe42e00…
03-19 03:15:25	elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 240plus	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0xf12bd8…
03-14 10:46:59	bitcoin above 60k on march 16	Yes	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x88ca84…
03-09 10:55:37	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 440 459	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x5e6b55…
03-04 03:28:23	bitcoin above 60k on march 4	Yes	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x3421c5…
02-28 02:31:39	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 480 499	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0xeec221…
02-13 08:52:57	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 560 579	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xff7b51…
02-13 08:52:43	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 189	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdb6189…
02-13 08:52:31	ethereum above 1600 on february 13	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xad05e7…
02-05 03:32:55	ethereum above 2500 on february 5	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xb0fa23…
02-05 03:32:43	elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 240plus	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xac6355…
02-05 03:32:31	will moonshot have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x07e23e…
01-31 09:42:34	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 260 279	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x33466d…
01-27 08:48:01	bitcoin above 78k on january 28	Yes	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x7fa0b2…
01-27 08:47:53	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 620 639	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0x560506…
01-23 03:07:54	bitcoin above 98k on january 24	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xd740cb…
01-19 07:59:38	will the price of bitcoin be between 84000 86000 on january 19	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x21ea9f…
01-19 07:59:28	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0b1861…
01-19 07:59:20	bitcoin above 98k on january 19	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0xbea7e3…
01-15 07:50:14	will israel strike lebanon on january 13 2026	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x06a3ec…
01-15 07:50:06	will the us next strike iran on january 14 2026 et 369	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x90f920…
01-15 07:49:56	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1160 1199	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9a1238…
01-10 07:30:00	bitcoin above 84k on january 11	Yes	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x94eb15…
01-10 07:29:50	elon musk of tweets january 2026 840 879	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd67239…
01-10 07:29:42	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 115	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x249631…
01-06 06:19:57	elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 620 639	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x207140…