Arctic-Performance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$304

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

13,931

Trades

84,765

lifetime

Volume

$351.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$95

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 10-29 01:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 208 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 48% -$9,882

Other

27% 62% -$2,940

Politics

1% 18% -$1,289

Sports

0% 31% -$259

Tech

0% 0% -$153

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+1,833	$110	2¢	$36	-$74	10-28 07:54
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Yes	+672	$50	3¢	$22	-$28	05-24 21:29
jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	Yes	+500	$175	3¢	$15	-$160	06-11 22:43
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+403	$10	3¢	$10	+$0	10-13 12:20
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	-5	-$4	99¢	$-5	-$1	05-24 16:27
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes	+273	$30	2¢	$5	-$25	04-30 11:07
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,528	$18	0¢	$2	-$16	05-26 07:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	3	$2.9K	2,628	2,628	+0	Yes	+$1,511	10-25 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	233	$2.4K	5,198	0	+5,198	Up	+$411	05-10 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	29	$2.3K	2,620	1,706	+914	Up	+$1,097	05-10 15:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 18:20 UTC	3	$2.2K	1,700	1,680	+20	Up	+$1,130	03-06 18:25
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	4	$2.0K	3,495	3,495	+0	open	—	10-06 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	6	$1.7K	2,306	2,296	+10	Down	+$642	05-06 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	162	$1.5K	3,684	0	+3,684	Up	+$561	05-10 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	100	$1.5K	5,794	0	+5,794	Down	-$82	05-10 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	199	$1.3K	2,671	0	+2,671	Down	-$615	05-10 15:55
solana up or down march 9 9pm et	43	$1.2K	1,089	1,086	+3	Up	+$962	03-10 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	54	$1.2K	2,212	0	+2,212	Up	+$68	05-10 15:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	110	$1.2K	2,247	0	+2,247	Down	-$116	05-10 14:44
bitcoin up or down march 9 9pm et	28	$1.1K	1,026	1,024	+1	Up	+$944	03-10 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	141	$1.0K	2,046	0	+2,046	Up	+$16	05-10 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	23	$1.0K	1,521	0	+1,521	Up	-$1	05-11 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	98	$1.0K	2,344	0	+2,344	Up	-$167	05-10 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	143	$1.0K	2,278	0	+2,278	Up	-$86	05-10 14:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 00:05 UTC	217	$995	934	918	+16	Down	+$88	03-16 00:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	99	$972	1,944	0	+1,944	Up	-$156	05-10 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	174	$924	4,730	0	+4,730	Down	-$88	05-11 17:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	13	$893	4,330	118	+4,212	Down	-$659	05-16 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	44	$879	1,744	0	+1,744	Up	+$17	05-10 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 02:35 UTC	165	$879	6,008	292	+5,716	Up	-$468	03-10 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	104	$876	2,149	0	+2,149	Down	+$152	05-10 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	43	$862	1,989	0	+1,989	Up	+$224	05-10 13:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 23:45 UTC	160	$851	884	849	+35	Up	+$230	03-15 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	168	$813	1,810	0	+1,810	Up	-$29	05-10 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	84	$813	1,838	0	+1,838	Down	+$16	05-10 15:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	121	$772	1,765	0	+1,765	Down	+$14	05-10 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	83	$759	1,837	0	+1,837	Down	-$66	05-10 15:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 01:35:41	Will Águilas FC win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	822	34¢	$280	0x731ef5…
10-28 07:54:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,833	6¢	$110	0x40e294…
10-27 16:40:11	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x65c77a…
10-27 15:06:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x84c985…
10-27 14:42:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x79af27…
10-27 13:51:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x82020c…
10-27 13:43:57	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa6b4a9…
10-27 13:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xb0c91a…
10-27 13:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb5493c…
10-27 12:56:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe97b62…
10-27 12:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8f71b2…
10-27 11:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x48a81f…
10-27 11:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3750f8…
10-27 11:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x1810da…
10-27 11:02:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x0112e8…
10-27 10:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x6a32dc…
10-27 10:26:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x791087…
10-27 10:21:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x60acbe…
10-27 10:06:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc25800…
10-27 10:06:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x801249…
10-27 10:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd2b15b…
10-27 10:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe69c6f…
10-27 09:29:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdd4911…
10-27 09:19:18	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x75fd0f…
10-27 09:12:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3aa61d…
10-27 09:10:59	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x709138…
10-27 09:00:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcb1abd…
10-27 08:14:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfcb83b…
10-27 08:14:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x5c0d90…
10-27 06:02:17	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa87474…
10-27 05:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x88905a…
10-27 00:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x286037…
10-27 00:16:11	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe3c450…
10-26 23:50:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe8dc01…
10-26 23:18:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8b21bd…
10-26 23:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 26?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfbba2d…
10-26 23:05:27	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6d9005…
10-26 22:59:24	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xef913f…
10-26 22:41:11	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 26?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x400ed3…
10-26 22:41:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xef5a04…
10-26 22:24:30	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x30e475…
10-26 22:09:14	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x37a984…
10-26 22:07:42	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 26?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6d7bc9…
10-26 22:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xc45bd8…
10-26 21:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x85796e…
10-26 21:39:48	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3965f7…
10-26 21:39:05	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xeb9a4a…
10-26 21:30:03	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd332c5…
10-26 21:21:35	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x552a0f…
10-26 21:20:30	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x3f6b68…
10-26 20:37:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0xffcb79…
10-26 20:27:02	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x557845…
10-26 20:16:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x426227…
10-26 20:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa75a52…
10-26 20:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x4cc1e7…
10-26 20:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3aca29…
10-26 19:48:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf615a4…
10-26 19:48:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf42a1f…
10-26 19:46:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc1c4b4…
10-26 19:46:11	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4b859e…
10-26 19:05:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc382de…
10-26 19:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa3d02b…
10-26 18:06:05	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x48dc80…
10-26 18:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc0f959…
10-26 17:54:15	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 1°C on October 26?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa0c5ff…
10-26 17:52:23	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 1°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x66bb62…
10-26 16:55:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x307520…
10-26 16:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc12ccd…
10-26 16:37:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xadf0a9…
10-26 16:27:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2182c2…
10-26 16:26:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x721794…
10-26 16:05:26	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3b7643…
10-26 15:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa5574f…
10-26 15:22:23	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcd7968…
10-26 15:13:26	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x40030f…
10-26 15:09:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7e18aa…
10-26 14:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x47e4f9…
10-26 14:13:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x871e0a…
10-26 14:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe532e1…
10-26 14:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe3c4eb…
10-26 13:42:32	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb9d965…
10-26 13:15:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6a3cf6…
10-26 13:14:38	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x907976…
10-26 12:58:29	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4e7a2c…
10-26 10:00:32	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa8c077…
10-26 09:48:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x587bdc…
10-26 09:46:29	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x644f1a…
10-26 09:42:14	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x43d79a…
10-26 09:42:11	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc8d38c…
10-26 09:33:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xde7a47…
10-26 09:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x3f5d14…
10-26 09:28:11	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x51b3d6…
10-26 09:22:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0bdbeb…
10-26 06:11:41	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x50902d…
10-26 05:58:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x90f387…
10-26 05:58:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xab06c4…
10-26 04:31:21	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0x11aea3…
10-26 03:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xd5908a…
10-26 03:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	64	87¢	$56	0x13a0b4…
10-26 03:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0xd24f9f…