Arctic-Performance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$906

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

57.3%

Resolved

3,379

Trades

69,752

lifetime

Volume

$248.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-03-04

last 06-09 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 55% $-947

Politics

1% 0% $-5

Other

1% 17% +$62

Sports

0% 0% $-16

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 8238 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	Yes		-393	$-14	3¢	$-11	+$3	06-07 21:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	233	$2.4K	5,198	0	+5,198	Up	+$411	05-10 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	29	$2.3K	2,620	1,706	+914	Up	+$1,097	05-10 15:13
btc updown 5m 1772821200	3	$2.2K	1,700	1,680	+20	open	—	03-06 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	6	$1.7K	2,306	2,296	+10	Down	+$642	05-06 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	162	$1.5K	3,684	0	+3,684	Up	+$561	05-10 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	100	$1.5K	5,794	0	+5,794	Down	$-82	05-10 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	199	$1.3K	2,671	0	+2,671	Down	$-615	05-10 15:55
solana up or down march 9 9pm et	43	$1.2K	1,089	1,086	+3	open	—	03-10 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	54	$1.2K	2,212	0	+2,212	Up	+$68	05-10 15:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	110	$1.2K	2,247	0	+2,247	Down	$-116	05-10 14:44
bitcoin up or down march 9 9pm et	28	$1.1K	1,026	1,024	+1	open	—	03-10 02:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	141	$1.0K	2,046	0	+2,046	Up	+$16	05-10 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	23	$1.0K	1,521	0	+1,521	Up	$-1	05-11 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	98	$1.0K	2,344	0	+2,344	Up	$-167	05-10 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	143	$1.0K	2,278	0	+2,278	Up	$-86	05-10 14:53
btc updown 5m 1773619500	217	$995	934	918	+16	open	—	03-16 00:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	99	$972	1,944	0	+1,944	Up	$-156	05-10 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	174	$924	4,730	0	+4,730	Down	$-88	05-11 17:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	13	$893	4,330	118	+4,212	open	—	05-16 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	44	$879	1,744	0	+1,744	Up	+$17	05-10 12:39
btc updown 5m 1773110100	165	$879	6,008	292	+5,716	open	—	03-10 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	104	$876	2,149	0	+2,149	Down	+$152	05-10 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	43	$862	1,989	0	+1,989	Up	+$224	05-10 13:43
btc updown 5m 1773618300	160	$851	884	849	+35	open	—	03-15 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	168	$813	1,810	0	+1,810	Up	$-29	05-10 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	84	$813	1,838	0	+1,838	Down	+$16	05-10 15:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	121	$772	1,765	0	+1,765	Down	+$14	05-10 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	83	$759	1,837	0	+1,837	Down	$-66	05-10 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	100	$757	1,963	0	+1,963	Down	$-205	05-10 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	155	$757	2,162	0	+2,162	Up	$-58	05-10 17:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 20:22:19	jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	Yes	SELL	1,068	7¢	$75	0x625fb5…
06-09 18:17:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xa5f296…
06-09 17:13:21	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	1,100	1¢	$11	0xaa70d7…
06-07 22:07:48	will jos luis rodrguez zapatero be arrested by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,043	9¢	$94	0x5de2aa…
06-07 21:57:13	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	393	4¢	$14	0x012d5f…
06-05 14:39:09	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	Jakub Mensik	BUY	622	5¢	$29	0x6ed3eb…
06-05 14:35:09	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	Jakub Mensik	BUY	145	3¢	$5	0x620a22…
05-27 20:41:21	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,048	3¢	$30	0x87df8a…
05-26 05:37:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1,923	3¢	$50	0x85364b…
05-25 20:49:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	16¢	$7	0x7b39c0…
05-24 21:27:22	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,048	2¢	$22	0x8b5b4e…
05-24 21:11:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	528	6¢	$30	0x52bc2b…
05-24 21:07:13	Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken?	Yes	BUY	499	8¢	$40	0x09fc85…
05-24 21:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x623b07…
05-24 21:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x4a342b…
05-24 20:59:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	281	18¢	$50	0x3569df…
05-24 20:59:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0xd18f14…
05-24 20:59:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	350	3¢	$10	0xfef0b9…
05-24 14:24:34	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0xe1bc3b…
05-24 14:24:15	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	242	25¢	$60	0xd371d3…
05-24 14:24:11	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	376	13¢	$50	0x4861e6…
05-24 07:40:54	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,750	0¢	$11	0x767eb3…
05-23 16:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xd1836c…
05-23 15:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	259	8¢	$20	0xd52de2…
05-23 11:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x89a6f3…
05-22 21:10:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0x722558…
05-22 15:17:07	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	Yes	BUY	870	2¢	$16	0x0d5d44…
05-22 12:22:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	690	3¢	$20	0x4f0275…
05-22 10:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x2a5ee8…
05-21 23:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	667	3¢	$20	0x804a98…
05-21 22:53:32	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	1,404	1¢	$20	0x290b62…
05-21 22:52:05	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,256	1¢	$10	0x0a7982…
05-21 22:51:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0xfd9472…
05-21 22:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x5090cc…
05-21 22:13:26	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	104,170	0¢	$104	0x4ed972…
05-21 19:27:30	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x99e7ae…
05-21 19:27:27	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x3f2d92…
05-21 19:27:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0xe0f422…
05-21 19:21:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x062135…
05-21 08:42:39	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	21,785	0¢	$44	0x063fbd…
05-21 07:56:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x6f0912…
05-21 07:56:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x794e80…
05-21 07:56:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xbfeaaf…
05-21 07:56:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xcd3e98…
05-21 07:56:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x1113f6…
05-21 07:56:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x952fb8…
05-21 07:56:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc46ac4…
05-21 07:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x9a0826…
05-21 07:56:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5f7c84…
05-21 07:56:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcb5e9e…
05-21 07:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9d1bdb…
05-21 07:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xcaaa8a…
05-21 07:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x8f7f23…
05-21 07:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x119ad1…
05-21 07:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1b7fc1…
05-21 07:56:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x3d32c7…
05-21 07:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb2fd90…
05-21 07:55:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x71ff99…
05-21 07:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x5bc2ce…
05-21 07:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xa118d8…
05-21 07:55:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6f0d13…
05-21 07:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0fd1a5…
05-21 07:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x618c63…
05-21 07:55:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0aacb7…
05-21 07:55:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x5ef698…
05-21 07:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x3401a1…
05-21 07:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x8bf55a…
05-21 07:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x52db34…
05-21 07:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd58d0a…
05-21 07:55:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6a4eb6…
05-21 07:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa82019…
05-21 07:55:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x159b34…
05-21 07:54:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x79d954…
05-21 07:54:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe3e2aa…
05-21 07:53:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb19ebe…
05-21 07:53:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9b76de…
05-21 07:53:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe8f287…
05-21 07:51:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5d123a…
05-21 07:51:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb2591d…
05-21 07:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x002e31…
05-21 07:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xfd4be2…
05-21 07:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb4648f…
05-21 07:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0697e1…
05-21 07:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x98acf3…
05-21 07:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x6e019d…
05-21 07:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x348445…
05-21 07:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x44e6f5…
05-21 07:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x3b4865…
05-21 07:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xae33cc…
05-21 07:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf4a444…
05-21 07:50:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf327d4…
05-21 07:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb7050c…
05-21 07:50:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xbb8628…
05-21 07:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x6b880b…
05-21 07:50:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xf1f16e…
05-21 07:50:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xd06650…
05-21 07:50:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8d438d…
05-21 07:50:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3a5cd5…
05-21 07:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x85df39…
05-21 07:50:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3768ff…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x6cf4…e1fa	752	$1.29K	3,932	05-21 03:54
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	723	$298.5K	26,064	05-21 03:53
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	698	$102.3K	25,036	05-21 03:54
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	679	$809	2,377	05-21 03:54
(anonymous) 0x88f4…d4db	668	$110.9K	20,539	05-21 03:49
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	653	$32.9K	6,871	05-16 14:08
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	652	$311.5K	87,150	05-16 14:09
Palatable-Cannon 0xff7b…f059	628	$1.11K	922	05-21 03:54