Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

67.7%

Resolved

Trades

342

lifetime

Volume

$2.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$89

16 positions

First seen

2026-10-29

last 11-13 17:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

66% 44% +$2

Tech

18% — —

Politics

15% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jacob Elordi and Kendall Jenner engaged in 2026?	No	+20	$16	85¢	$17	+$1	11-02 21:33
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+20	$16	76¢	$15	$0	11-13 12:21
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	+20	$16	76¢	$15	$0	11-13 11:23
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 4%?	Yes	+20	$9	32¢	$6	-$2	10-31 21:07
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	+20	$10	31¢	$6	-$4	11-01 03:36
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	+7	$6	83¢	$6	+$0	11-12 08:45
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	+20	$12	30¢	$6	-$6	11-02 18:45
Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+7	$3	42¢	$3	$0	11-13 17:09
Will the Republicans win Arkansas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	+20	$2	14¢	$3	+$1	11-13 15:41
Will "Bad and Boujee" by Migos, Lil Uzi Vert be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	Yes	+8	$3	30¢	$2	$0	11-03 09:33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	+20	$5	12¢	$2	-$2	10-31 15:35
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	+15	$3	14¢	$2	-$1	11-01 02:05
Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	+7	$1	24¢	$2	+$0	11-11 00:54
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.02% in November?	Yes	+15	$4	8¢	$1	-$3	11-10 19:21
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in November?	Yes	+20	$2	5¢	$1	-$1	11-10 17:24
Will PSOE win the Spanish election by 8+ seats over PP?	Yes	+11	$1	7¢	$1	$0	11-07 15:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	10	$99	100	100	+0	open	—	11-05 03:55
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate at the March meeting?	11	$97	100	100	+0	open	—	11-05 08:08
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the March meeting?	8	$70	80	80	+0	open	—	11-03 08:58
Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026?	7	$64	51	51	+0	open	—	11-05 02:37
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	6	$63	60	60	+0	open	—	11-10 11:06
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of January 2027?	4	$62	40	40	+0	open	—	11-06 14:19
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	5	$58	40	40	-0	No	+$1	11-03 04:55
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	8	$48	60	60	+0	open	—	11-11 17:54
Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	9	$46	72	72	+0	open	—	11-11 20:36
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	7	$46	60	60	+0	open	—	11-03 19:58
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?	4	$44	30	30	+0	Yes	+$1	11-04 23:59
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $138 in November?	5	$42	40	40	+0	open	—	11-11 14:17
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by December 31, 2026?	4	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	11-05 11:52
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	6	$39	42	42	+0	open	—	11-03 22:55
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	4	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	11-03 19:18
Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	5	$38	40	40	+0	Yes	+$1	11-05 12:11
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	4	$36	40	40	+0	open	—	11-10 11:35
Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027?	8	$35	35	35	+0	Yes	-$1	11-05 13:38
Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	11-07 22:16
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 10% by December 31?	6	$34	33	33	+0	open	—	11-07 02:43
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.32% in November?	2	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	11-10 14:15
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by November 30, 2026?	4	$33	40	40	+0	open	—	11-01 07:21
Will Core PCE YoY be 2.9% in October?	2	$33	20	20	+0	open	—	11-03 03:21
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	11-11 22:45
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	11-13 08:52
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	4	$31	40	40	+0	open	—	11-10 16:44
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	11-04 02:27
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	11-03 06:50
Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by March 31, 2027?	2	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	11-13 03:04
Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	2	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	11-11 07:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 17:09:30	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x5cd9ab…
11-13 15:41:01	Will the Republicans win Arkansas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x31a57b…
11-13 14:50:30	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $320 in November?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xfa59e6…
11-13 12:21:54	Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x94b436…
11-13 12:08:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $184 in November?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x19ff66…
11-13 11:23:42	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x9d05fd…
11-13 10:17:15	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $184 in November?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x10b318…
11-13 09:04:01	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in November?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xe7fb43…
11-13 08:52:58	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xa947d4…
11-13 06:16:31	Will Melania Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	13¢	$2	0xafb4e5…
11-13 05:46:36	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x4ed058…
11-13 03:24:43	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x202da4…
11-13 03:04:31	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xf7a695…
11-12 20:18:51	Will Steve Witkoff join Trump at APEC in China?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x8ee0bb…
11-12 15:59:49	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0x62498a…
11-12 15:59:42	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xee75f8…
11-12 13:49:01	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in November?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x5bd8ef…
11-12 13:48:27	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.97% in November?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x02fb9d…
11-12 11:01:12	EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?	No	SELL	11	23¢	$3	0xfbb673…
11-12 09:41:48	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x91202d…
11-12 09:38:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	22¢	$4	0xfc8331…
11-12 08:45:16	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$6	0x43625c…
11-12 08:23:19	Will Steve Witkoff join Trump at APEC in China?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xfe1504…
11-12 07:37:52	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd25084…
11-12 05:10:21	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xa2539b…
11-11 23:20:57	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x269924…
11-11 22:45:09	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x769137…
11-11 21:55:16	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x2b07bb…
11-11 21:55:15	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0xf12f31…
11-11 20:36:55	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x5d2ae2…
11-11 18:15:40	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.97% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xe50ee4…
11-11 17:54:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x76ede3…
11-11 17:48:39	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb55092…
11-11 17:24:52	EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?	No	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x4f1753…
11-11 15:07:43	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x6f4e96…
11-11 14:17:12	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $138 in November?	Yes	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xbaa4fc…
11-11 14:17:12	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $138 in November?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x3a84f5…
11-11 07:30:28	Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x5ca53c…
11-11 02:27:39	Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x6ac095…
11-11 00:54:24	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	SELL	13	36¢	$5	0x4a0f20…
11-10 19:21:37	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.02% in November?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x0abead…
11-10 19:03:51	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x540577…
11-10 19:00:22	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x6f0560…
11-10 18:31:37	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x14c7dd…
11-10 18:13:42	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0xc5f4e4…
11-10 18:00:51	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0xa81430…
11-10 17:24:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1f8662…
11-10 17:10:42	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xb275c6…
11-10 16:44:49	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xa8fea5…
11-10 15:27:03	Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x54cf16…
11-10 15:03:19	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xd0b28c…
11-10 14:50:31	Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x1d82cc…
11-10 14:36:27	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in November 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xfc4a36…
11-10 14:32:16	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xf7b49f…
11-10 14:25:43	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x0317f0…
11-10 14:15:12	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.32% in November?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x02a5ea…
11-10 13:47:39	Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?	No	SELL	13	22¢	$3	0x5603ad…
11-10 13:31:34	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0xda4f06…
11-10 12:53:07	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xd62527…
11-10 12:34:30	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x12ee8d…
11-10 12:09:24	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x16fcfb…
11-10 12:08:33	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x3c69df…
11-10 11:55:00	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xc0b801…
11-10 11:36:31	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0xe2237f…
11-10 11:35:49	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xdc403c…
11-10 11:23:37	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x5cfa9d…
11-10 11:10:16	Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x8f0d15…
11-10 11:06:06	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x0394dc…
11-10 09:53:10	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.02% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x982de6…
11-10 09:24:52	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x7b3eb4…
11-10 06:18:54	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x0edb32…
11-10 05:51:51	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc7cbbe…
11-10 05:35:46	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in November 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x920fc9…
11-10 04:45:30	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x91a0c6…
11-10 03:40:27	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x8360b1…
11-10 03:40:24	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?	Yes	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x6270aa…
11-10 02:34:48	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x915b88…
11-10 02:34:45	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0x698dcf…
11-10 01:55:27	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in November 2026?	No	SELL	8	44¢	$3	0xebd637…
11-10 01:26:45	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x4c9d07…
11-10 00:24:01	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x4a80be…
11-09 20:42:55	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in November 2026?	No	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x5adc33…
11-09 20:07:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xec4f22…
11-09 20:06:42	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.32% in November?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xe31064…
11-09 19:58:39	Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xb370f4…
11-08 23:46:39	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xaf4224…
11-08 23:35:13	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x61a7f8…
11-08 22:31:49	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0xbb967b…
11-08 18:50:27	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xe356a4…
11-08 17:35:52	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	Yes	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x437845…
11-08 17:02:19	Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x276ac3…
11-08 16:42:45	Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xa9f081…
11-08 04:14:12	Carlson's Republican nomination odds dip to 2% by December 31?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xa46ba3…
11-08 04:01:55	Carlson's Republican nomination odds dip to 2% by December 31?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x516721…
11-08 01:26:42	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	Yes	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xd67efb…
11-07 22:45:13	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x1d66c7…
11-07 22:45:09	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	14¢	$2	0x277b11…
11-07 22:28:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xc43cdc…
11-07 22:16:54	Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xf9ece3…
11-07 19:19:12	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xab45df…