Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.02% in November?
open
Total volume
$1,385
$78 in 24h
Trades
78
Unique wallets
31
Liquidity
$339
Latest YES mid
7¢
Latest NO mid
93¢
End date
2026-12-01
First seen
2026-11-03
last 11-13 16:04
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-5.8¢
(top1%: 12% YES on $592
vs crowd: 18% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | $83 | $621 | $538 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 11 | $96 | $143 | $47 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | $1 | $70 | $69 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $8 | $44 | $37 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $70 | $523 | $453 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | $48 | $48 |
| Median | 3 | $4 | $40 | $36 |
| Below median | 5 | $4 | $42 | $38 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $18 | $95 | $77 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 11 | $91 | $132 | $40 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08 | No | +364 | $284 | $284 | 2 | 11-10 09:54 |
| Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | +221 | $61 | $61 | 2 | 11-08 14:57 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +155 | $48 | $48 | 4 | 11-07 12:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +60 | $12 | $12 | 3 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +60 | $47 | $47 | 3 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | +54 | $43 | $43 | 1 | 11-10 09:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | +53 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 11-10 09:53 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +40 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6ea…f5f0 | No | +33 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 11-06 11:24 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 11-10 22:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x0360…0469 | No | +29 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 11-10 22:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +28 | $7 | $17 | 3 | 11-10 09:53 |
| Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | No | +28 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 11-07 12:15 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | +25 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 11-10 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +24 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 11-10 09:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x91a4…dc02 | Yes | +22 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 11-10 14:48 |
| Modest-Odometer 0xbdad…3ef7 | No | +22 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 11-10 14:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x06fb…bfdb | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 11-11 01:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 11-08 06:09 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 11-08 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 11-04 03:13 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 11-07 13:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 11-13 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | +19 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 11-08 15:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | +19 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 11-09 23:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x564b…0ac6 | Yes | +15 | $4 | $5 | 2 | 11-10 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x5bdf…e240 | No | +6 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 11-10 22:44 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-07 17:50 |
| Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | No | +4 | $3 | $26 | 2 | 11-06 11:24 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 16:04:16 | (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x98b8c2… |
| 11-13 16:04:16 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x6d7c3a… |
| 11-13 16:04:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6d7c3a… |
| 11-13 16:04:16 | (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x98b8c2… |
| 11-13 16:04:15 | (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6d863f… |
| 11-13 16:04:15 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x101bde… |
| 11-13 16:04:15 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6d863f… |
| 11-13 16:04:15 | (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x101bde… |
| 11-11 01:30:04 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x546b8e… |
| 11-11 01:30:04 | (anonymous) 0x06fb…bfdb | No | BUY | 21 | 93¢ | $20 | 0x546b8e… |
| 11-10 22:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x5bdf…e240 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xde2d29… |
| 11-10 22:44:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xde2d29… |
| 11-10 22:44:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 29 | 9¢ | $3 | 0xbde071… |
| 11-10 22:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x0360…0469 | No | BUY | 29 | 91¢ | $26 | 0xbde071… |
| 11-10 19:21:37 | (anonymous) 0x564b…0ac6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x0abead… |
| 11-10 19:21:37 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x0abead… |
| 11-10 19:21:37 | Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 10¢ | $3 | 0x0abead… |
| 11-10 14:48:09 | Modest-Odometer 0xbdad…3ef7 | No | BUY | 22 | 84¢ | $18 | 0xbda9ad… |
| 11-10 14:48:09 | (anonymous) 0x91a4…dc02 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 16¢ | $4 | 0xbda9ad… |
| 11-10 09:54:37 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | SELL | 0 | 79¢ | $0 | 0x2acfc3… |
| 11-10 09:54:37 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 0 | 21¢ | $0 | 0x2acfc3… |
| 11-10 09:54:27 | Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08 | No | BUY | 55 | 79¢ | $43 | 0x7c9474… |
| 11-10 09:54:27 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x7c9474… |
| 11-10 09:54:27 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 35 | 79¢ | $28 | 0x7c9474… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 22¢ | $12 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 152 | 78¢ | $118 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x564b…0ac6 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08 | No | BUY | 309 | 78¢ | $241 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 22¢ | $5 | 0x982de6… |
| 11-10 09:53:09 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | BUY | 54 | 79¢ | $43 | 0xfd01ab… |
| 11-10 09:53:09 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 54 | 79¢ | $43 | 0xfd01ab… |
| 11-10 09:53:09 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xb83c6b… |
| 11-10 09:53:09 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xb83c6b… |
| 11-10 09:53:09 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 79¢ | $19 | 0x365f1a… |
| 11-10 09:53:09 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 24 | 79¢ | $19 | 0x365f1a… |
| 11-09 23:23:52 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 22¢ | $0 | 0xfc6d5c… |
| 11-09 23:23:52 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0xfc6d5c… |
| 11-08 15:27:15 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | BUY | 19 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xb19564… |
| 11-08 15:27:15 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x41957b… |
| 11-08 15:27:15 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x41957b… |
| 11-08 15:27:15 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 19 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xb19564… |
| 11-08 14:57:01 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 28¢ | $56 | 0x24d346… |
| 11-08 14:57:01 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | BUY | 244 | 72¢ | $176 | 0x24d346… |
| 11-08 14:57:01 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x24d346… |
| 11-08 14:57:01 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 28¢ | $7 | 0x24d346… |
| 11-08 06:09:25 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | BUY | 20 | 71¢ | $14 | 0xd63d05… |
| 11-08 06:09:25 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0xd63d05… |
| 11-07 17:50:07 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xdf40e8… |
| 11-07 17:50:07 | True-Bone 0x3923…6833 | No | SELL | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xdf40e8… |
| 11-07 17:49:52 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x9f31e1… |
| 11-07 17:49:52 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | BUY | 21 | 75¢ | $16 | 0x9f31e1… |
| 11-07 17:49:15 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 40 | 71¢ | $28 | 0xbeaa39… |
| 11-07 17:49:15 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | BUY | 40 | 71¢ | $28 | 0xbeaa39… |
| 11-07 13:05:46 | Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | BUY | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xac8bab… |
| 11-07 13:05:46 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0xac8bab… |
| 11-07 12:15:25 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xbd4a96… |
| 11-07 12:15:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 61 | 36¢ | $22 | 0xbd4a96… |
| 11-07 12:15:25 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | No | BUY | 21 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xbd4a96… |
| 11-07 12:15:25 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xbd4a96… |
| 11-06 11:24:06 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | No | SELL | 18 | 63¢ | $11 | 0x8cd173… |
| 11-06 11:24:06 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | SELL | 15 | 62¢ | $9 | 0x8cd173… |
| 11-06 11:24:06 | (anonymous) 0xe6ea…f5f0 | No | BUY | 33 | 63¢ | $21 | 0x8cd173… |
| 11-06 09:09:54 | (anonymous) 0x14c8…cbb4 | No | SELL | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x4a9896… |
| 11-06 09:09:54 | (anonymous) 0x5bdf…e240 | No | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x4a9896… |
| 11-04 23:09:03 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | SELL | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x16a28a… |
| 11-04 23:09:03 | True-Bone 0x3923…6833 | No | BUY | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x16a28a… |
| 11-04 23:00:43 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | No | BUY | 7 | 71¢ | $5 | 0x24fff7… |
| 11-04 23:00:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 29¢ | $2 | 0x24fff7… |
| 11-04 03:13:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 23¢ | $10 | 0x99b8b0… |
| 11-04 03:13:10 | (anonymous) 0x14c8…cbb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x99b8b0… |
| 11-04 03:13:10 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x99b8b0… |
| 11-04 03:13:10 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x99b8b0… |
| 11-03 22:37:19 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | No | BUY | 22 | 67¢ | $15 | 0x05017b… |
| 11-03 22:37:19 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | BUY | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x05017b… |
| 11-03 22:37:19 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 33¢ | $14 | 0x05017b… |