Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.75K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

41.9%

Resolved

1,962

Trades

16,057

lifetime

Volume

$153.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-10-03

last 10-27 04:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

41% 15% -$775

Crypto

31% 54% -$1,694

Politics

24% 17% -$212

Tech

3% 26% -$45

Sports

1% 0% -$3

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 1501 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	No		+20	$7	16¢	$3	-$3	10-18 13:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	17	$445	463	463	+0	No	-$14	10-20 16:25
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 35%-40%?	26	$415	340	340	+0	open	—	10-27 05:23
will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by october 310728191327780	21	$372	391	391	+0	Yes	-$1	10-14 16:39
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	6	$326	300	300	+0	open	—	10-26 10:06
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 15%-20%?	28	$323	279	279	+0	open	—	10-25 19:33
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	16	$286	279	279	+0	open	—	10-24 19:05
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?	39	$281	330	330	+0	open	—	10-17 17:03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-04 House election by 15%-20%?	22	$264	210	210	+0	open	—	10-22 04:52
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	8	$260	162	162	+0	open	—	10-27 04:46
Will "A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	7	$253	250	250	+0	open	—	10-21 00:38
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?	8	$232	260	260	+0	Yes	-$8	10-14 16:32
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	11	$216	159	159	+0	No	-$2	10-17 19:18
Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	12	$214	225	225	+0	open	—	10-26 20:17
Will the Republicans win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	33	$213	230	230	+0	open	—	10-21 19:26
Will "One in a Million" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	8	$212	235	235	+0	open	—	10-22 02:45
Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	19	$204	166	166	+0	open	—	10-24 22:42
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	23	$203	187	187	+0	open	—	10-27 00:30
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	26	$193	201	201	+0	open	—	10-21 21:20
Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	10	$192	225	225	+0	Yes	-$2	10-21 20:30
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	6	$190	170	170	+0	open	—	10-18 11:29
Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	12	$187	199	199	+0	open	—	10-21 01:32
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	4	$185	200	200	+0	open	—	10-21 09:55
Will "El Cuerpo de Cristo" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	11	$185	201	201	+0	open	—	10-21 14:18
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 72% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$184	120	120	+0	open	—	10-18 08:45
Will "Listen" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	7	$183	169	169	+0	open	—	10-25 03:45
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ME-02 House election by 0%-3%?	17	$179	160	160	+0	open	—	10-27 01:21
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	5	$179	200	200	+0	open	—	10-10 15:36
Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	15	$178	218	218	+0	open	—	10-20 20:58
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	6	$176	130	130	+0	open	—	10-21 13:21
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	5	$174	182	182	+0	open	—	10-26 19:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 06:05:57	Will Anthropic IPO on November 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x201372…
10-27 06:05:44	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xfa26bf…
10-27 06:01:57	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0xa49bf9…
10-27 06:01:57	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x80d956…
10-27 05:57:06	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x499c87…
10-27 05:56:57	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xdedf19…
10-27 05:55:02	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	No	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xe3b1e9…
10-27 05:53:06	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x5da548…
10-27 05:52:05	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x6bec61…
10-27 05:49:17	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x90e2d4…
10-27 05:45:06	Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xffaed7…
10-27 05:44:44	Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x52b399…
10-27 05:44:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xedfbdc…
10-27 05:44:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x5a7060…
10-27 05:44:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x27f1b1…
10-27 05:43:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-06 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x702b57…
10-27 05:43:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x2f3ce0…
10-27 05:43:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xe616af…
10-27 05:43:17	Will Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi be the next mayor of eThekwini?	No	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xb6d804…
10-27 05:42:42	Will Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi be the next mayor of eThekwini?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x51994a…
10-27 05:40:41	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x9fc3e1…
10-27 05:40:26	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xeeae43…
10-27 05:38:24	Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x721ae6…
10-27 05:36:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-15 House election by 65%-70%?	No	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x6a5af7…
10-27 05:34:41	Alix Earle and Lando Norris confirm relationship in 2026?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x3e1a12…
10-27 05:31:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 6% or more?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xe88772…
10-27 05:27:42	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xd1be2b…
10-27 05:27:27	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x799947…
10-27 05:27:27	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x68ebce…
10-27 05:27:27	Will Anthropic IPO on November 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x3bc7b8…
10-27 05:25:21	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xb2c44e…
10-27 05:24:27	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x4fc328…
10-27 05:23:54	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x863862…
10-27 05:23:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x8fcfad…
10-27 05:22:20	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x375095…
10-27 05:22:17	Will Lille qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xa73348…
10-27 05:20:02	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xde1026…
10-27 05:19:41	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x1aac8a…
10-27 05:17:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 6% or more?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xe852ef…
10-27 05:13:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-15 House election by 65%-70%?	No	SELL	14	56¢	$8	0xd85237…
10-27 05:11:50	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	Yes	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x13ae21…
10-27 05:11:42	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x6f5ecc…
10-27 05:11:36	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0xbe446a…
10-27 05:08:00	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x1ada45…
10-27 05:06:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xdcb5a5…
10-27 05:04:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 6% or more?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x3964cc…
10-27 05:02:12	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x32345b…
10-27 05:01:51	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x611fe9…
10-27 04:59:15	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x20f777…
10-27 04:59:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 3% or more?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x9fba94…
10-27 04:57:00	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0x5e41d8…
10-27 04:51:47	Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x8d34f2…
10-27 04:51:11	Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x5628b5…
10-27 04:51:08	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xb25217…
10-27 04:46:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	12	75¢	$9	0xdb5c2d…
10-27 04:45:39	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x355be3…
10-27 04:41:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0xf9bc27…
10-27 04:39:06	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xa66b40…
10-27 04:38:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-12 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xce6a08…
10-27 04:36:56	Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xe7614e…
10-27 04:36:54	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x0856d6…
10-27 04:35:54	Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xcb2637…
10-27 04:34:47	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xd54e21…
10-27 04:34:47	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x50d29d…
10-27 04:34:20	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	22¢	$4	0x41ac7a…
10-27 04:31:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x8b0bb8…
10-27 04:29:54	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x47d6dd…
10-27 04:29:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 3% or more?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x8024d8…
10-27 04:29:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x83906d…
10-27 04:28:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-14 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x749069…
10-27 04:28:20	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x072e9c…
10-27 04:27:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-14 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x433fc2…
10-27 04:25:27	Will Junts win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x521184…
10-27 04:25:03	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x08418b…
10-27 04:23:36	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x748bd9…
10-27 04:23:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0xec1f11…
10-27 04:22:59	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x9c5c98…
10-27 04:18:41	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-12 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x30add0…
10-27 04:18:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xedff67…
10-27 04:18:26	Will Anthropic IPO on November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x5063c2…
10-27 04:18:26	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0x3dc9be…
10-27 04:18:18	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x19c97c…
10-27 04:17:26	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xff5e20…
10-27 04:16:59	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x5ae259…
10-27 04:15:11	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No	SELL	60	55¢	$33	0x98f5c0…
10-27 04:14:00	CISA emergency directive issued by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xf1aae2…
10-27 04:13:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	12	77¢	$9	0xe8facd…
10-27 04:10:23	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0xad0f3b…
10-27 04:10:23	Will Anthropic IPO on November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0x6f4b61…
10-27 04:09:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x84655f…
10-27 04:08:00	Will Anthropic IPO on November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0x37bb64…
10-27 04:07:21	Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x303f42…
10-27 04:06:57	Will Lille qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x15fc84…
10-27 04:05:42	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x124808…
10-27 04:05:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0xd41e67…
10-27 04:04:45	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	49¢	$1	0x1cdc36…
10-27 04:04:24	Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x3f02a9…
10-27 04:04:23	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0xbd6411…
10-27 04:02:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x5de154…
10-27 04:02:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-08 House election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0xa15b91…