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Realized P&L (7d)
-$346
Unrealized P&L
-$46
Hit rate
30.3%
Resolved (7d)
187
Trades (7d)
38
17,783 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$460
$168.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$220
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-03
last 11-14 16:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 44 days
Categories
Other
43% 15% -$2,450
Crypto
28% 54% -$1,710
Politics
25% 18% -$624
Tech
3% 16% -$128
Sports
1% 0% -$3
Pop-Culture
1% 22% -$24
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk • peak 1501 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? No +20 $10 97¢ $19 +$10 10-26 21:26
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98? Yes +72 $26 26¢ $19 -$7 11-08 06:20
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting? No +20 $17 92¢ $18 +$2 11-07 15:37
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? No +16 $15 88¢ $15 $0 11-07 15:39
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? No +20 $7 72¢ $14 +$7 11-07 15:32
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by November 30? Yes +20 $10 60¢ $12 +$2 11-07 15:55
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by November 30, 2026? No +20 $11 55¢ $11 +$0 11-07 17:39
Will White House post 200+ posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026? No +14 $7 70¢ $10 +$3 11-14 16:22
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%? Yes +20 $12 43¢ $9 -$3 10-27 03:46
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by November 30? No +20 $10 40¢ $8 -$2 11-07 15:55
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in October? No +9 $7 86¢ $8 +$0 11-07 23:40
Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30? No +8 $5 80¢ $6 +$1 11-08 10:20
Will Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” sell for between $175m and $200m at auction? Yes +50 $16 12¢ $6 -$10 11-07 21:18
Will Palmeiras win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? No +20 $9 30¢ $6 -$3 11-08 05:09
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026? Yes +6 $5 96¢ $6 +$1 11-07 20:40
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30? No +7 $4 82¢ $6 +$1 11-07 16:01
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +20 $13 28¢ $6 -$7 11-07 15:28
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.75 on November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $8 28¢ $6 -$2 11-07 14:56
Will Kelly Morrison be the next to hold Klobuchar's Senate seat by March 31? No +20 $11 24¢ $5 -$6 11-07 17:27
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Campeche Congress election? Yes +20 $4 22¢ $4 +$1 11-08 04:26
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026? No +5 $5 86¢ $4 $0 11-07 15:48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026? Yes +5 $4 66¢ $3 $0 11-08 06:31
Will David Lisnard win the fourth-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +15 $2 22¢ $3 +$1 11-08 04:48
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026? Yes +20 $6 16¢ $3 -$3 11-08 05:29
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $174B by November 30? Yes +19 $7 15¢ $3 -$5 11-07 19:16
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026? No +20 $13 14¢ $3 -$10 11-08 05:50
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026? No +20 $15 11¢ $2 -$13 11-07 21:30
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? Yes +16 $2 12¢ $2 $0 11-07 15:39
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the February meeting? Yes +20 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 11-07 15:37
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $40 in 2026? Yes +2 $2 74¢ $2 $0 10-13 02:04