Modest-Odometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.34K

Unrealized P&L

-$54

Hit rate

71.4%

Resolved

678

Trades

2,677

lifetime

Volume

$25.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

10 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-27 08:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

75% 58% +$1,127

Politics

9% 58% +$73

Crypto

7% 51% +$82

Tech

5% 58% +$2

Sports

4% 60% +$57

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+101	$4	2¢	$2	-$1	09-24 04:07
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	+2	$0	98¢	$2	+$1	09-19 00:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	+1	$16	47¢	$0	-$15	08-23 15:01
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	20¢	$0	$0	07-19 15:19
houthis enter aden by october 31 2026	Yes	+1	$0	1¢	$0	$0	09-11 06:52
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+0	$23	4¢	$0	-$23	10-23 20:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$3	16¢	$0	-$3	08-23 15:01
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$2	8¢	$0	-$2	08-27 22:41
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	Yes	+0	$5	10¢	$0	-$5	07-13 00:44
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	+0	$6	6¢	$0	-$6	08-05 13:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	13	$381	249	241	+8	Yes	+$13	09-12 18:36
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	11	$288	315	315	+0	Yes	+$63	09-04 18:42
will jio platforms ipo by december 31 2026 20260629175908109	49	$252	307	300	+7	open	—	07-13 05:33
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	10	$234	208	101	+107	Yes	+$32	10-06 09:09
will the highest score achieved by a meta model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 65 or higher 20260723191934220	8	$225	158	158	+0	open	—	08-22 06:17
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	10	$223	208	208	+0	open	—	10-26 22:05
will russia enter mykolaivka by december 31 2026 20260805154948091	5	$187	106	106	+0	Yes	+$4	08-22 18:43
Will Micron (MU) finish week of October 5 above $1,020?	8	$187	193	193	+0	Yes	+$172	10-08 16:32
Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	10	$182	147	147	+0	Yes	+$3	09-01 17:39
Will Iran target Syria by August 31, 2026?	6	$182	109	109	+0	No	+$3	08-23 12:03
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	8	$180	151	150	+0	open	—	10-26 22:05
Will Los Angeles Dodgers advance to the NLCS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?	8	$177	145	145	+0	Yes	-$16	09-27 11:15
trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 16 2026	5	$176	97	97	+0	Yes	+$14	10-14 17:36
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	4	$173	102	102	+0	No	-$5	09-11 17:26
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of October 12 above $350?	2	$173	162	162	+0	No	-$18	10-15 20:03
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	3	$172	104	104	+0	open	—	10-23 20:08
Will the Seattle Seahawks have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	3	$171	170	170	+0	open	—	10-02 17:49
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in August?	5	$171	91	91	+0	No	-$2	08-23 22:47
israel military action against syria by september 15 2026	12	$169	139	137	+2	Yes	+$3	08-22 12:38
US x China tariff agreement by October 31?	3	$167	104	71	+33	Yes	+$3	09-27 02:10
lacy and marlon beat gaming challenge by september 14 2026 1159 pm et	2	$166	108	108	+0	Yes	+$9	09-02 07:08
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	4	$163	101	101	+0	Yes	-$32	09-03 19:46
Will Micron (MU) finish week of October 5 above $1,070?	4	$159	177	177	+0	No	-$32	10-08 16:32
will jio platforms ipo by september 30 2026 20260629175908108	22	$149	145	144	+2	No	+$9	07-13 05:33
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	4	$149	104	67	+37	Yes	+$9	10-11 02:23
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	12	$146	213	209	+4	Yes	+$22	09-26 15:47
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	9	$143	105	105	+0	open	—	10-21 09:32
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in September?	6	$140	90	90	+0	No	+$19	09-09 16:30
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of October 12 above $340?	2	$139	162	162	+0	Yes	+$126	10-15 20:03
will heidi overton be confirmed as fda commissioner by september 30	10	$139	120	120	+0	No	+$33	08-21 15:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:21:24	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xf6fc0f…
10-27 08:21:21	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x23bc78…
10-27 08:03:29	Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	45	13¢	$6	0xea6da9…
10-27 08:03:27	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	Yes	SELL	45	90¢	$41	0xff7e08…
10-27 07:29:50	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x97fd49…
10-27 07:29:50	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x7395db…
10-27 04:18:35	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xeb8762…
10-27 04:18:33	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x80be38…
10-27 04:18:33	Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x6aa7cd…
10-26 22:05:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	36¢	$31	0x10d271…
10-26 22:05:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	86	67¢	$57	0x33f509…
10-26 22:03:32	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x68392b…
10-26 22:03:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x5b7453…
10-26 21:49:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x978e8f…
10-26 21:49:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x69b4dc…
10-26 17:52:42	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0xc90913…
10-26 17:52:42	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x294322…
10-26 14:53:00	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x84b838…
10-26 14:52:57	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x759a0f…
10-26 11:26:02	Will George Pickens have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x8df8c9…
10-26 11:25:59	Will George Pickens have 799.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0x3f40bf…
10-26 03:16:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	101	61¢	$61	0x7d5056…
10-26 03:16:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	38¢	$39	0x1b023e…
10-26 00:07:54	Will Garrett Wilson have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x62d17f…
10-26 00:07:54	Will Garrett Wilson have 999.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x5c0423…
10-25 19:46:12	Will George Pickens have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xac93c0…
10-25 19:46:11	Will George Pickens have 799.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x4eaa6f…
10-25 19:23:05	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xdd0313…
10-25 19:23:03	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.25 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x1fcbb0…
10-25 19:03:20	Will Ladd McConkey have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xff35f9…
10-25 19:03:20	Will Ladd McConkey have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xdffeba…
10-25 17:35:06	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x4fdb32…
10-25 17:35:03	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x392436…
10-25 16:37:30	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x35f45e…
10-25 16:37:29	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x189c02…
10-25 13:31:15	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x9347e7…
10-25 13:31:15	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x0124f5…
10-25 13:05:33	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	11¢	$11	0x6fe3c2…
10-25 13:05:23	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	55¢	$56	0x0ef7c5…
10-25 10:18:02	Will Take-Two Q2 net bookings be above $1.60B?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xbb0398…
10-24 13:23:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x8d21ed…
10-24 13:23:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0xdbd17a…
10-24 12:36:33	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xf9576b…
10-24 12:36:33	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0xed7a1a…
10-24 10:36:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x10bf22…
10-24 10:34:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc643c7…
10-24 10:34:12	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x3db4c7…
10-24 00:12:32	Will Drake Maye have 3,549.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0x9c3de5…
10-24 00:12:29	Will Drake Maye have 3,799.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x5f67be…
10-23 20:08:38	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	6¢	$6	0xc3975a…
10-23 20:08:36	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	104	97¢	$101	0x91b10a…
10-23 18:10:24	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	SELL	71	3¢	$2	0x230f41…
10-23 18:10:14	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0xc5997f…
10-23 17:28:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0xcc5d6a…
10-23 17:28:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x08945f…
10-23 16:46:56	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0x1c0152…
10-23 16:46:51	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 24?	No	SELL	14	30¢	$4	0x1c5e44…
10-23 16:31:45	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	12¢	$12	0xe2010b…
10-23 16:31:45	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	103	86¢	$89	0x59e20e…
10-23 15:41:54	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xf33d86…
10-23 15:41:48	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 24?	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x6f949d…
10-23 15:32:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	69¢	$45	0x97a7f7…
10-23 15:32:54	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	28¢	$19	0x791f37…
10-23 15:32:48	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	28¢	$11	0x7a45f8…
10-23 15:32:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	67¢	$25	0x3c303e…
10-23 15:25:30	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$17	0x4f0572…
10-23 15:25:30	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 24?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x3fdeb5…
10-23 13:08:33	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x43da98…
10-23 03:13:53	Will Drake Maye have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xcb77bf…
10-23 03:13:53	Will Drake Maye have 29.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xafb822…
10-23 00:28:21	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x0bd355…
10-23 00:28:20	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x0c8a55…
10-22 19:24:18	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0x7b1503…
10-22 13:47:15	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	57¢	$8	0x479915…
10-22 13:47:02	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$7	0xc99c24…
10-22 09:54:14	Will Dak Prescott have 27.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x76d49c…
10-22 09:54:12	Will Dak Prescott have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xa9e23c…
10-22 03:25:53	Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	31	7¢	$2	0x599d45…
10-22 03:25:53	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x2594cb…
10-21 22:54:11	will ap call us house control by november 13	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x3dff0d…
10-21 22:49:03	Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xe26b8c…
10-21 22:49:03	will ap call us house control by november 13	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbdaa37…
10-21 21:28:20	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0xea8ce0…
10-21 21:28:18	CISA confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x7f8a3b…
10-21 20:20:59	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xd0281b…
10-21 20:08:38	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xac568b…
10-21 20:08:38	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	28¢	$9	0x76a1cd…
10-21 19:10:24	AWS service disrupted by November 30?	Yes	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x1a2e45…
10-21 19:10:21	AWS service disrupted by October 31?	No	SELL	12	63¢	$8	0xc4ca39…
10-21 18:40:53	AWS service disrupted by November 30?	Yes	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0xa965a4…
10-21 18:40:44	AWS service disrupted by October 31?	No	BUY	1	62¢	$1	0x91d68e…
10-21 18:40:42	AWS service disrupted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc8ed59…
10-21 17:26:20	CISA confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xd2807a…
10-21 17:26:18	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	83¢	$22	0x8c499e…
10-21 16:57:26	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x62e932…
10-21 16:57:26	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x244518…
10-21 16:56:57	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0xabc93a…
10-21 16:56:48	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xb4dae0…
10-21 16:56:47	US Gov confirms PHP flaw under attack by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xc566ac…
10-21 15:04:26	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x6f05d9…