Unfolded-Runaway — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$198

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$173

Open exposure

$582

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-18 12:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

70% 50% +$298

Crypto

23% 0% -$98

Politics

7% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No		-407	-$421	98¢	$-400	+$21	10-18 12:36
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No		-200	-$152	91¢	$-182	-$30	05-12 00:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	2	$469	80	487	-407	open	—	10-18 12:36
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	4	$453	591	591	+0	open	—	09-04 13:58
Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$425	774	0	+774	open	—	10-18 12:38
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	2	$414	714	0	+714	No	+$300	05-12 00:11
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	1	$238	0	240	-240	No	-$2	09-04 13:58
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$152	0	200	-200	open	—	05-12 00:10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$98	13,984	0	+13,984	No	-$98	06-02 06:42
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	1	$2	52	0	+52	No	-$2	01-11 05:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 12:38:00	Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	774	55¢	$425	0x7fdcf5…
10-18 12:36:27	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	487	91¢	$445	0xde20fd…
09-04 13:58:31	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	SELL	328	54¢	$178	0xe5f027…
09-04 13:58:24	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	240	99¢	$238	0xea28a3…
06-02 06:42:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13,984	1¢	$98	0x736b07…
06-02 06:40:45	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	SELL	263	39¢	$103	0x1efe1e…
05-12 00:11:16	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	637	58¢	$369	0x697ddc…
05-12 00:10:17	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0xd2f238…
05-12 00:09:28	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0x894aa1…
05-12 00:09:07	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	77	58¢	$45	0x433535…
05-11 23:52:17	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	29¢	$73	0xa70ddc…
05-11 11:54:05	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	341	29¢	$100	0x0529cd…
01-11 05:12:22	Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	52	3¢	$2	0xa2f8f9…