Recent-Sturgeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$31

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$109

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-02

last 10-28 22:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

52% 86% +$4

Other

43% 12% -$43

Sports

5% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No		+4	$4	95¢	$4	+$0	10-28 22:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	1	$19	21	+21	No	+$1	07-13 12:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	1	$14	14	+14	Yes	+$0	09-29 13:00
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	1	$13	14	+14	No	-$13	06-20 15:02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$9	16	+16	Yes	-$9	08-29 11:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	1	$8	9	+9	No	+$1	08-17 15:35
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	1	$8	12	+12	No	-$8	06-14 06:10
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1	$7	19	+19	No	-$7	05-02 02:39
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	1	$5	6	+6	No	-$5	06-28 14:34
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	1	$4	4	+4	No	+$0	05-19 09:40
lol hle1 milo 2026 07 15	1	$4	5	+5	Hanwha Life Esports	+$0	07-13 12:46
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	1	$4	7	+7	No	+$3	10-18 12:17
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$4	7	+7	Yes	+$3	07-13 12:57
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	10-28 22:14
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	1	$2	24	+24	No	-$2	06-05 15:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$1	15	+15	No	-$1	05-22 13:54
North Texas vs. Texas State	1	$1	19	+19	Texas State	-$1	09-19 20:01
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$0	07-26 10:01
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$1	6	+6	Sean Strickland	+$5	05-08 04:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:14:11	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x8e8cf5…
10-18 12:17:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x6cbbf2…
09-29 13:00:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0xb2d85a…
09-19 20:01:17	North Texas vs. Texas State	North Texas	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0x0b6e32…
08-29 11:26:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x2e4bb5…
08-17 15:35:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x4a75ec…
07-26 10:01:37	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x16e146…
07-13 12:57:07	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xf6ebc9…
07-13 12:55:16	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	21	94¢	$19	0x371372…
07-13 12:46:17	lol hle1 milo 2026 07 15	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0xec5b61…
06-28 14:34:08	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x8832e8…
06-20 15:02:08	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	14	87¢	$13	0x1e7c16…
06-14 06:10:52	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	12	61¢	$8	0xeed5b1…
06-05 15:31:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x44edad…
05-22 13:54:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xac0e52…
05-19 09:40:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xd90d47…
05-08 04:19:50	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9c2a39…
05-02 02:39:28	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	35¢	$7	0x08695c…