Reasonable-Doughnut — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$30

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

63.1%

Resolved (90d)

186

Trades (90d)

591

4,303 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.22K

$19.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-24

last 11-12 22:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 128 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 62% -$301

Other

3% 35% -$13

Politics

0% 25% -$22

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+500	$5	0¢	$2	-$3	05-14 04:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-27 15:30 UTC	5	$203	368	157	+211	Down	-$57	06-27 15:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 13:45 UTC	8	$150	106	106	+0	Down	+$6	06-28 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 18:10 UTC	8	$135	113	113	+0	Up	-$9	07-09 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 17:50 UTC	6	$119	85	84	+0	Up	+$11	07-09 17:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 12:45 UTC	6	$113	69	69	+0	Up	+$5	06-28 12:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 12:25 UTC	6	$110	75	75	+0	Up	+$2	06-28 12:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 16:15 UTC	6	$110	81	81	+0	Up	+$2	06-30 16:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 17:45 UTC	6	$108	78	78	+0	Up	$0	07-10 17:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 20:40 UTC	6	$108	82	82	+0	Up	$0	07-09 20:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-27 15:35 UTC	4	$106	115	115	+0	Up	-$34	06-27 15:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 09:15 UTC	6	$104	77	77	+0	Down	-$4	06-28 09:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 16:50 UTC	8	$102	73	73	+0	Up	-$8	07-09 16:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 12:30 UTC	7	$102	83	60	+23	Up	-$10	06-28 12:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	18	$96	64	64	+0	Down	+$6	05-20 20:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 18:15 UTC	5	$94	86	61	+25	Up	-$14	07-09 18:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 18:05 UTC	9	$92	97	97	+0	Up	-$32	07-10 18:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:45 UTC	6	$90	66	66	+0	Up	+$6	07-09 21:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 06:10 UTC	9	$88	138	96	+42	Down	-$34	07-10 06:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:00 UTC	6	$87	55	55	+0	Up	+$3	07-09 22:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 17:10 UTC	6	$87	92	92	+0	Up	-$21	07-01 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	12	$86	69	69	+0	Down	+$6	05-16 21:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 16:55 UTC	5	$85	77	51	+26	Down	-$23	07-09 16:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 12:35 UTC	6	$82	54	54	+0	Down	+$6	07-08 12:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	6	$81	53	53	+0	Up	-$4	07-01 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 21:25 UTC	6	$80	56	56	+0	Down	+$2	07-06 21:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:35 UTC	4	$79	53	53	+0	Up	+$7	07-09 21:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 20:20 UTC	4	$78	46	46	+0	Up	+$6	07-09 20:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 19:20 UTC	4	$78	52	52	+0	Down	+$6	07-01 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 09:00 UTC	6	$78	54	54	+0	Down	+$2	07-09 09:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:30 UTC	4	$77	59	59	+0	Down	+$5	07-09 22:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 22:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x13624d…
11-12 22:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x01311d…
11-11 01:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x26e249…
11-11 01:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x3c74a0…
11-11 01:22:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x95da8a…
11-11 01:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xafb68b…
11-11 01:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x4313fa…
11-11 01:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x5784e8…
11-11 01:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x4113d0…
11-11 01:12:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xc17235…
11-11 01:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x7d2840…
11-11 01:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6e3c17…
11-11 01:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	72¢	$2	0x4094ad…
11-11 01:06:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x4e6a74…
11-11 00:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0x022255…
11-11 00:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x32240a…
11-11 00:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x7db4f3…
11-11 00:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x76ee65…
11-11 00:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x210428…
11-09 08:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x4e5af1…
11-09 08:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xa98d50…
11-09 08:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x42591c…
11-09 08:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x20c4fe…
11-05 22:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe72cf3…
11-05 22:18:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xa3142e…
11-05 22:18:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe2c2d0…
11-05 22:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x08416f…
11-05 22:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe25996…
11-05 22:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x5115e4…
11-05 22:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa2816d…
11-05 21:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xeb4451…
11-05 02:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xca37f1…
11-05 02:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xdb4831…
11-05 01:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xb6edca…
11-05 01:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xbc6477…
11-05 01:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xe461dd…
11-05 01:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xd76325…
11-05 01:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xdf84eb…
11-05 01:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xcb7f96…
11-05 01:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x7a7bd2…
11-05 01:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xc26ee4…
11-05 01:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xec3227…
11-04 22:48:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x50522e…
11-04 22:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xec64ec…
11-04 22:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x85e61e…
11-04 22:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x6a33b2…
11-04 22:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x08b936…
11-04 22:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8e7251…
11-04 22:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9cdefb…
11-04 22:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x70867b…
11-04 22:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x96b9c8…
11-04 22:04:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x8e033a…
11-04 22:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2fd016…
11-04 22:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x5c3281…
11-03 23:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xab93be…
11-03 23:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x9eddcd…
11-03 23:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x9ceb65…
11-03 23:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x30381c…
11-03 23:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x760e74…
11-03 23:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xeafc0f…
11-03 23:28:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xe7f14e…
11-03 23:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x48a644…
11-03 23:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3fd795…
11-03 23:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x798f38…
11-03 23:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8ffed2…
11-03 23:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfd6833…
11-03 23:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x84ffca…
11-03 23:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x9b594f…
11-03 23:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x2e444a…
11-03 23:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x43b341…
11-03 23:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x0f6790…
11-02 22:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xe0f518…
11-02 22:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb399f2…
10-22 19:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x77d283…
10-22 19:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xda8749…
10-22 19:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x8f5e7c…
10-22 19:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x85f69d…
10-22 19:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xdc6ebf…
10-22 19:02:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x1e5ef8…
10-21 13:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x84772f…
10-21 13:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa5f945…
10-21 13:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x20b9a0…
10-21 13:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x03c74c…
10-21 13:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9a8842…
10-21 13:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xbdbe02…
10-21 12:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xab9a78…
10-21 12:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xee8fa4…
10-21 12:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x922860…
10-21 12:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x8a7950…
10-21 12:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x32149b…
10-21 12:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x9da023…
10-20 15:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x7d4948…
10-20 15:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x86c6b7…
10-20 15:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x24e851…
10-20 15:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x1e57b9…
10-20 15:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xe334c8…
10-20 15:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9ac0f6…
10-20 15:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x6ebea6…
10-20 08:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x33703a…
10-20 08:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x1e985c…