Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

49.5%

Resolved

165

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$291

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-21

last 11-03 02:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

89% 49% -$17

Politics

8% 54% -$2

Tech

2% 100% +$10

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes		+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-03 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	2	$4	7	7	+0	Yes	$0	08-29 23:24
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	$0	08-29 23:24
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	$0	08-23 08:39
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	2	$4	7	7	+0	Yes	$0	08-29 23:23
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	2	$4	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	08-23 08:39
yum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt56	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-25 07:23
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-24 07:20
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	9	0	+9	No	-$2	09-18 08:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	09-09 12:56
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	09-08 00:56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	-$2	09-20 19:41
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	2	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	$0	10-09 17:59
msft up or down on august 5 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	Down	-$2	08-05 11:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	09-17 01:31
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	1	$2	6	0	+6	Yes	-$2	08-03 10:14
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	09-17 10:21
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	09-20 11:39
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	9	0	+9	No	-$2	09-19 02:32
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	09-23 08:02
Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$3	09-23 08:13
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in July?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	09-01 04:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	10	0	+10	No	-$2	09-13 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	-$2	09-12 18:44
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	-$2	09-21 03:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	08-13 07:29
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	09-19 22:08
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	09-23 16:19
will abnb dip to 168 by august 10 2026	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	08-09 22:49
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	+$6	09-16 05:21
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	09-15 12:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 02:49:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xae458c…
11-01 06:22:55	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe78bca…
10-22 20:31:53	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xdaa94c…
10-22 12:18:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x563998…
10-22 03:03:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x212c69…
10-21 19:02:12	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf7e77e…
10-21 10:59:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x71c9ff…
10-21 02:59:35	Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth 2.5% to 3.5%?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4ff754…
10-20 18:57:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4f73e6…
10-20 10:57:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe2bfbc…
10-18 14:55:39	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x969b4a…
10-18 06:54:30	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd153fd…
10-16 12:21:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc6e6e1…
10-16 04:01:10	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc27d8a…
10-15 18:20:10	Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x78fc0c…
10-15 09:50:40	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xe74ce3…
10-15 01:09:08	will the tesla roadsters 0 60 time be less than 1 second	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x66d317…
10-13 15:56:07	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x93bce9…
10-13 15:55:03	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x56509d…
10-10 19:48:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5b5776…
10-10 11:46:06	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 89% to 92%?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb5e3f7…
10-10 02:02:18	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x699a0a…
10-09 17:59:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7f973a…
10-09 17:43:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x5ac7d9…
10-09 09:36:10	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe06cd5…
10-08 12:11:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x770542…
10-08 04:10:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2ce3ec…
10-07 20:00:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4326c7…
10-07 12:00:02	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x992d69…
10-07 03:59:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x98115f…
10-06 19:59:39	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7ebd95…
10-06 11:59:18	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x70bcd2…
10-06 03:59:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc92a5f…
10-05 19:51:04	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xf6b0a4…
10-05 11:50:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x1f959f…
10-04 15:33:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe05bca…
10-04 06:10:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1064df…
10-03 21:20:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x401e55…
10-03 19:53:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x331161…
10-03 02:08:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x9a0c81…
10-02 16:04:45	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 2?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb6387c…
10-02 08:00:47	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x1dff67…
10-01 23:44:41	Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5a2f6e…
10-01 14:22:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbe539a…
10-01 06:11:26	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x4354f2…
09-29 21:54:56	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x945161…
09-29 13:54:47	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in August?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x27b262…
09-29 05:02:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb14915…
09-28 20:26:11	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd65399…
09-28 12:25:48	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb4719c…
09-28 12:25:35	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x15176d…
09-28 04:25:11	will meta dip to 690 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc9ffed…
09-27 19:29:39	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xbe8837…
09-27 09:41:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x404224…
09-27 01:38:51	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xdd1242…
09-26 15:13:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x172d8c…
09-26 07:12:53	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x543941…
09-25 22:41:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8086ce…
09-25 14:40:53	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x64e5bc…
09-25 06:39:29	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x824e84…
09-24 22:06:54	will trump say ballroom during his evening remarks with xi jinping	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf96604…
09-24 02:06:31	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $700 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0xfe053b…
09-23 16:19:52	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x2404d3…
09-23 08:13:55	Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe57e72…
09-23 08:02:23	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $160 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc997fd…
09-22 23:59:34	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe9890e…
09-21 03:42:01	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xa44318…
09-20 19:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x076e96…
09-20 11:39:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xd0cd88…
09-19 22:08:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xdbb5d2…
09-19 10:32:47	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xc73efe…
09-19 02:32:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x40fbc7…
09-18 17:45:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x638bc7…
09-18 08:18:55	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x7471a5…
09-17 10:21:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x258f9b…
09-17 01:31:36	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x0aac94…
09-16 05:21:48	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x887943…
09-15 20:11:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x5b35d7…
09-15 12:08:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x3f2f76…
09-13 15:58:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xc738cb…
09-13 04:06:27	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x30a8d1…
09-12 18:44:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x878081…
09-12 09:11:42	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc10b33…
09-12 00:24:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x3d4558…
09-09 12:56:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x59cb70…
09-09 04:24:18	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x7887c8…
09-08 18:00:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xaa4325…
09-08 09:58:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x8459aa…
09-08 00:56:54	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xf6a013…
09-07 16:26:40	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xe4e1d4…
09-02 09:03:18	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xf0c611…
09-02 00:25:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x727f68…
09-01 04:16:06	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in July?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xef3f58…
08-30 16:07:39	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xb43b0b…
08-30 07:56:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x6defe4…
08-29 23:49:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xfef179…
08-29 23:24:28	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0x93e3fc…
08-29 23:24:13	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x00ed57…
08-29 23:23:58	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	No	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xe93c4b…
08-29 15:48:55	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x7ba5c2…