Determined-Causeway — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$174

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.8%

Resolved

310

Trades

1,098

lifetime

Volume

$31.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 10-28 15:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 56% +$901

Other

7% 27% -$725

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Politics

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down march 16 2026 9am et	26	$2.2K	4,614	4,590	+24	Up	+$570	03-16 13:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:20 UTC	4	$1.5K	1,238	1,222	+16	Down	+$180	03-16 14:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:05 UTC	21	$1.4K	922	918	+4	Up	+$119	03-16 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:10 UTC	64	$1.4K	2,476	2,449	+26	Down	-$554	03-16 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:00 UTC	6	$1.4K	802	799	+3	Up	-$39	03-16 14:05
bitcoin up or down march 15 2026 6am et	18	$1.2K	2,397	1,492	+904	Down	+$634	03-15 10:50
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-16 16:00 UTC	6	$1.1K	2,590	239	+2,350	Up	-$910	03-16 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$1.1K	963	963	+0	Up	+$231	10-28 08:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 18:50 UTC	4	$979	731	721	+10	Down	+$54	03-14 18:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 18:55 UTC	2	$865	579	570	+9	Up	+$272	03-14 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 17:15 UTC	4	$816	464	461	+3	Down	+$90	03-14 17:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:15 UTC	2	$711	1,130	1,032	+99	Down	-$44	03-16 14:19
epl ars eve 2026 03 14 btts	2	$697	1,409	1,409	+0	No	-$190	03-14 18:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	4	$658	582	582	+0	Up	+$132	10-28 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$634	440	440	+0	Up	+$229	10-28 08:26
epl che new 2026 03 14 total 3pt5	6	$628	533	533	+0	Under	-$18	03-14 16:53
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-14 12:00 UTC	7	$626	867	794	+73	Down	+$57	03-14 15:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 17:05 UTC	2	$618	365	361	+4	Up	+$101	03-14 17:09
epl ars eve 2026 03 14 draw	2	$616	762	752	+10	No	-$511	03-14 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	2	$580	472	472	+0	Down	+$52	10-28 15:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 09:50 UTC	9	$519	332	327	+5	Up	+$121	03-15 09:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 17:00 UTC	2	$508	264	263	+0	Down	+$14	03-14 17:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 10:05 UTC	29	$487	914	907	+7	Down	+$57	03-15 10:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 14:50 UTC	2	$449	249	247	+1	Up	+$42	03-14 14:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 09:45 UTC	2	$401	203	203	+0	Down	+$2	03-15 09:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	19	$363	581	581	+0	Down	-$229	10-28 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	2	$322	217	217	+0	Up	+$100	10-28 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 14:35 UTC	2	$320	186	184	+2	Down	+$46	03-14 14:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 11:05 UTC	4	$269	174	173	+2	Up	+$10	03-14 11:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	3	$267	801	312	+490	Up	-$142	10-28 15:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	490	11¢	$55	0x513649…
10-28 15:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	312	20¢	$62	0x25fec1…
10-28 15:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	312	48¢	$150	0xc6b41f…
10-28 15:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	157	99¢	$155	0xa682dd…
10-28 15:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	157	46¢	$72	0xe2f6f2…
10-28 15:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	581	12¢	$67	0x8d6fe1…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	154	51¢	$78	0xe7961c…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xdfc416…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcf7554…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xa475e0…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x9fe2d5…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x7fac45…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0x60b27d…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x55fb32…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x45e990…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x15f63c…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	152	51¢	$78	0x13f902…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x08cace…
10-28 15:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0517b0…
10-28 15:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	65	51¢	$33	0xac42aa…
10-28 15:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x2a1d2c…
10-28 15:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xeb9111…
10-28 15:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0xe61138…
10-28 15:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa06471…
10-28 15:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	472	67¢	$316	0xf76327…
10-28 15:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	472	56¢	$264	0x59735f…
10-28 15:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	274	99¢	$272	0x40067c…
10-28 15:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	274	41¢	$113	0x14590f…
10-28 15:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	308	40¢	$123	0x278549…
10-28 15:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	308	49¢	$151	0x72f538…
10-28 08:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	963	67¢	$645	0x94ab21…
10-28 08:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	963	43¢	$415	0xa0cb25…
10-28 08:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	440	98¢	$431	0x72f7dd…
10-28 08:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	440	46¢	$202	0x13984f…
10-28 08:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	217	97¢	$211	0x052764…
10-28 08:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	217	51¢	$111	0xf3d6f3…
10-14 13:26:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:25 UTC	Down	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xc70744…
10-14 13:25:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x14c833…
10-14 13:25:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x6888e3…
10-14 13:18:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x37ba75…
10-14 13:17:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xddc308…
10-14 13:06:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:05 UTC	Up	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0xaa9f27…
10-14 13:05:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xff9500…
10-14 12:52:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x1b884e…
10-09 09:41:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0x5a7b07…
10-09 09:40:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:35 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x6b4606…
10-09 09:36:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc73cb8…
10-09 09:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0xf463f5…
10-09 09:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2c50b3…
10-09 09:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0x917098…
10-09 09:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x928271…
10-09 09:21:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x404256…
10-09 09:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x5b6541…
10-07 13:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x5aedfe…
10-07 13:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	29	24¢	$7	0xd07521…
10-07 13:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x77fdfa…
10-07 13:19:59	BNB Up or Down - October 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbe26af…
10-07 12:16:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x54af51…
10-07 12:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xa80e0b…
10-07 12:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x328359…
10-07 12:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x800c24…
10-07 12:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x9b235b…
10-07 12:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd84386…
10-07 12:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0x3aabae…
10-07 11:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf1e1a7…
05-12 12:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	186	11¢	$20	0x362b9e…
05-12 12:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x697a84…
05-12 12:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	360	3¢	$10	0x1cabd3…
05-12 12:37:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	261	4¢	$10	0x0881fd…
05-12 12:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0xaaf9dc…
05-12 12:36:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xec03fc…
05-12 12:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	91	4¢	$4	0x003fb1…
05-12 12:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	177	4¢	$7	0xd50d27…
05-12 12:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x8dd992…
05-12 12:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x831af5…
05-12 12:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x797256…
05-12 12:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0x6d7b4c…
05-12 12:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x16275a…
05-12 12:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	817	2¢	$20	0xb3e726…
05-12 12:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	143	17¢	$24	0x1339b7…
05-12 12:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x228292…
05-12 12:25:17	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	484	9¢	$42	0x7e24f3…
05-12 12:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0x62c473…
05-12 12:22:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0xea6dba…
05-12 12:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x555126…
05-12 12:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x712669…
05-12 12:19:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x2abe94…
05-12 09:22:47	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xa7eb3d…
05-12 09:20:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0xe69a16…
05-12 09:18:00	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	614	9¢	$53	0x5bca87…
05-12 09:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	59	55¢	$32	0xde56bb…
05-12 09:15:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x3d8b50…
05-12 09:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	57	82¢	$47	0x7c6c7b…
05-12 09:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	57	47¢	$27	0xa1c198…
05-12 09:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x57d947…
05-12 09:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xdd9e99…
05-12 06:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7af668…
05-12 06:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x0d7e5d…
05-12 06:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x4d86aa…
05-12 06:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	19	18¢	$4	0xf1ea15…