Determined-Causeway — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$1.01K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.17K

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

105

1,206 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$26.8K

$58.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

$285

1 position

First seen

2026-02-13

last 11-14 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 54% -$352

Other

11% 28% -$179

Sports

1% 0% -$314

Politics

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ethereum Up or Down on November 14?	Up		+6,336	$1,456	4¢	$285	-$1,171	11-14 11:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	2	$2.2K	3,067	3,067	+0	No	+$644	11-08 17:31
bitcoin up or down march 16 2026 9am et	26	$2.2K	4,614	4,590	+24	Up	+$570	03-16 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	6	$1.9K	7,460	1,153	+6,307	Up	-$774	11-13 12:08
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-08?	2	$1.8K	1,701	1,701	+0	No	-$98	11-08 16:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	4	$1.5K	2,163	617	+1,546	Down	-$508	11-10 02:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:20 UTC	4	$1.5K	1,238	1,222	+16	Down	+$180	03-16 14:25
Ethereum Up or Down on November 14?	2	$1.5K	6,336	0	+6,336	open	—	11-14 11:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:05 UTC	21	$1.4K	922	918	+4	Up	+$119	03-16 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:10 UTC	64	$1.4K	2,476	2,449	+26	Down	-$554	03-16 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:00 UTC	6	$1.4K	802	799	+3	Up	-$39	03-16 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	2	$1.2K	856	856	+0	Down	+$479	11-13 08:34
bitcoin up or down march 15 2026 6am et	18	$1.2K	2,397	1,492	+904	Down	+$634	03-15 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$1.2K	982	982	+0	Up	+$781	11-08 16:24
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-16 16:00 UTC	6	$1.1K	2,590	239	+2,350	Up	-$910	03-16 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$1.1K	682	682	+0	Down	+$263	11-10 00:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$1.1K	963	963	+0	Up	+$231	10-28 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$1.1K	591	591	+0	Down	+$115	11-11 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$1.0K	585	585	+0	Down	-$7	11-14 10:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	2	$1.0K	561	561	+0	Up	+$64	11-10 01:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 18:50 UTC	4	$979	731	721	+10	Down	+$54	03-14 18:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	2	$944	499	499	+0	Down	+$24	11-10 01:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 18:55 UTC	2	$865	579	570	+9	Up	+$272	03-14 19:00
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$862	477	477	+0	Down	+$82	11-11 08:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$846	481	481	+0	Down	+$106	11-11 15:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 17:15 UTC	4	$816	464	461	+3	Down	+$90	03-14 17:20
Cavaliers vs. Heat	4	$753	7,450	3,087	+4,363	Heat	-$312	11-14 03:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 14:15 UTC	2	$711	1,130	1,032	+99	Down	-$44	03-16 14:19
epl ars eve 2026 03 14 btts	2	$697	1,409	1,409	+0	No	-$190	03-14 18:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$686	420	420	+0	Down	+$146	11-10 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	4	$658	582	582	+0	Up	+$132	10-28 15:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 11:24:23	Ethereum Up or Down on November 14?	Up	BUY	88	20¢	$18	0x146119…
11-14 11:20:17	Ethereum Up or Down on November 14?	Up	BUY	6,248	23¢	$1,438	0x36cd2d…
11-14 10:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	585	87¢	$511	0x7d0ce9…
11-14 10:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	585	89¢	$518	0x19b98a…
11-14 03:19:31	Cavaliers vs. Heat	Cavaliers	BUY	4,363	5¢	$200	0x6b3270…
11-14 03:12:25	Cavaliers vs. Heat	Cavaliers	SELL	3,087	7¢	$220	0x9ca4d6…
11-14 03:12:01	Cavaliers vs. Heat	Cavaliers	BUY	2,000	10¢	$200	0x2897ae…
11-14 03:11:35	Cavaliers vs. Heat	Cavaliers	BUY	1,087	12¢	$132	0x839ae9…
11-13 12:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1,848	8¢	$148	0xb36069…
11-13 12:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1,550	8¢	$131	0xaa7ee4…
11-13 12:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1,194	10¢	$115	0xa6e0a7…
11-13 12:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1,715	7¢	$125	0x2bc475…
11-13 12:06:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1,153	50¢	$575	0xadcec2…
11-13 12:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1,153	72¢	$830	0x64090d…
11-13 08:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	856	99¢	$847	0x6357ee…
11-13 08:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	856	43¢	$368	0x04cd54…
11-11 15:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1,079	52¢	$565	0x2a7f93…
11-11 15:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	591	99¢	$585	0xc557bf…
11-11 15:21:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	591	80¢	$470	0x0f6b56…
11-11 15:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	481	99¢	$476	0x348b72…
11-11 15:15:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	481	77¢	$370	0x65e3c6…
11-11 15:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	381	99¢	$377	0x827600…
11-11 15:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	381	39¢	$149	0x757b09…
11-11 15:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	720	23¢	$164	0xc8b484…
11-11 15:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	720	64¢	$458	0xb65dd4…
11-11 14:17:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xbcdf82…
11-11 08:03:10	Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	477	99¢	$472	0x2ac86f…
11-11 08:00:39	Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	477	82¢	$390	0xa3eecb…
11-10 14:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	353	13¢	$46	0x311948…
11-10 14:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	177	29¢	$51	0x3f8b77…
11-10 14:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	177	25¢	$45	0xf2780b…
11-10 14:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	172	29¢	$50	0xd2854b…
11-10 14:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	172	51¢	$88	0xe78418…
11-10 14:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x1acce3…
11-10 14:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0xbb31cb…
11-10 12:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1,176	46¢	$547	0x98e0f8…
11-10 10:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1,048	24¢	$255	0x91c172…
11-10 10:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x4dc175…
11-10 10:34:37	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	327	99¢	$324	0x2b562a…
11-10 10:31:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	327	54¢	$177	0xc56617…
11-10 02:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	184	99¢	$182	0x145dc3…
11-10 02:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	184	49¢	$90	0x4d24d7…
11-10 02:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1,132	31¢	$352	0xc8081f…
11-10 02:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	414	39¢	$160	0x3a497f…
11-10 02:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	617	82¢	$504	0x959c1c…
11-10 02:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	617	81¢	$500	0x76e8a2…
11-10 01:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	561	97¢	$544	0xc16679…
11-10 01:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	561	86¢	$480	0x420fdb…
11-10 01:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	499	97¢	$484	0xf18da6…
11-10 01:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	499	92¢	$460	0xe2d65f…
11-10 01:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1,357	21¢	$287	0x36d680…
11-10 01:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1,539	22¢	$339	0x34009d…
11-10 00:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	682	98¢	$668	0x47dc40…
11-10 00:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	682	59¢	$404	0x605f1c…
11-10 00:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	420	99¢	$416	0xd95516…
11-10 00:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	420	64¢	$270	0x4d1c66…
11-10 00:39:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	281	98¢	$276	0x9a3aeb…
11-10 00:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	281	85¢	$240	0x35585e…
11-09 03:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	38¢	$5	0x106d33…
11-09 03:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0x144fed…
11-09 03:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0xd7fa76…
11-08 17:31:37	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	3,067	47¢	$1,441	0x3fc1f8…
11-08 16:48:34	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	3,067	26¢	$797	0x17bbfd…
11-08 16:48:03	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	1,701	50¢	$850	0x4090aa…
11-08 16:46:28	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	1,701	56¢	$949	0xf60fda…
11-08 16:24:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	982	99¢	$973	0xb890d7…
11-08 16:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	982	19¢	$191	0x00d88d…
11-08 16:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x8d5950…
11-08 16:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	208	100¢	$208	0x648467…
11-08 16:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	208	14¢	$29	0x8bbb28…
11-08 16:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	121	27¢	$33	0x9d0da1…
11-08 16:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	121	39¢	$47	0x1ce3de…
11-08 08:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	90	21¢	$19	0x597621…
11-08 08:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	193	11¢	$21	0x369b9d…
11-08 08:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	193	50¢	$96	0x263123…
11-08 06:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	189	10¢	$19	0xafba7b…
11-08 06:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	189	14¢	$26	0x2843e0…
11-08 06:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	404	6¢	$23	0x658501…
11-08 06:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	175	3¢	$6	0xfda647…
11-08 06:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	579	13¢	$77	0xcd8a22…
11-08 06:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	361	24¢	$87	0x4deddb…
11-08 06:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	361	47¢	$170	0xadbca1…
11-08 06:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	638	26¢	$166	0x63f5af…
11-08 06:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	638	31¢	$200	0x96e707…
11-08 06:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xc2cebe…
11-08 06:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	472	41¢	$193	0x76fa1b…
11-08 06:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0xe6038a…
11-08 06:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0xbc2b01…
11-08 06:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x72c0cd…
11-08 06:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x64a6a4…
11-08 06:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x1056f3…
11-08 06:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	24	41¢	$10	0x8d448e…
11-08 06:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	33	41¢	$14	0x173b27…
11-08 06:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	554	39¢	$219	0x1e1fd8…
11-08 06:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	321	71¢	$229	0xea3e97…
11-08 06:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	321	53¢	$170	0xb663dd…
11-08 06:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x00a137…
11-08 05:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	83	22¢	$18	0xa6cf99…
11-08 05:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0xc9c428…
11-07 18:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	62	13¢	$8	0xbda100…