Aching-Penguin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.1%

Resolved

Trades

526

lifetime

Volume

$8.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 06-03 15:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

72% 14% $-4

Crypto

13% — —

Politics

8% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	10	$1.1K	940	940	+0	open	—	05-19 18:34
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	5	$1.0K	897	897	+0	open	—	05-19 18:35
btc updown 5m 1771662900	2	$300	193	190	+3	open	—	02-21 08:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$265	299	299	+0	open	—	03-14 05:36
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	4	$236	401	401	+0	open	—	04-10 15:49
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22	2	$211	151	151	+0	open	—	03-22 16:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$209	218	218	+0	open	—	02-28 18:11
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	6	$191	307	307	+0	open	—	04-03 09:58
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 65 89	2	$165	114	114	+0	open	—	03-28 10:36
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	4	$160	244	244	+0	open	—	04-03 07:45
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 40 64	2	$142	125	125	+0	open	—	03-30 05:48
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	2	$138	120	120	+0	open	—	03-31 04:39
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	3	$131	220	220	+0	open	—	04-02 10:23
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	10	$131	1,528	1,478	+50	open	—	04-26 12:29
cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14	2	$129	121	121	+0	open	—	03-14 17:55
highest temperature in london on march 23 2026 15c	2	$122	78	78	+0	open	—	03-23 16:59
btc updown 5m 1771662600	1	$120	204	0	+204	open	—	02-21 08:29
cs2 navi fut 2026 03 14	2	$114	91	91	+0	open	—	03-14 17:23
highest temperature in london on march 27 2026 12c	2	$111	70	70	+0	open	—	03-27 15:16
highest temperature in london on march 26 2026 10c	2	$108	71	71	+0	open	—	03-26 17:20
highest temperature in london on march 25 2026 9c	2	$107	69	69	+0	open	—	03-25 17:15
highest temperature in london on march 24 2026 14c	2	$102	95	95	+0	open	—	03-24 05:10
cs2 furia pain 2026 03 09	2	$91	54	54	+0	open	—	03-09 18:50
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 40 64	2	$86	152	152	+0	open	—	03-28 06:54
cs2 gl1 nip 2026 04 02	3	$86	108	107	+2	open	—	04-02 19:59
cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	6	$84	155	60	+95	open	—	04-02 12:27
will axiom be accused of insider trading	3	$67	60	60	+0	open	—	02-26 14:16
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 40 64	3	$65	49	49	+0	open	—	03-16 13:49
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	2	$64	41	40	+1	open	—	04-08 14:27
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 65 89	2	$62	119	119	+0	open	—	03-30 05:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 15:02:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0x00b556…
05-19 18:35:00	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	882	100¢	$881	0x555e58…
05-19 18:34:49	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	940	100¢	$939	0x90aab1…
04-26 12:29:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x742cd4…
04-21 11:55:52	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	87	12¢	$10	0x1ba4a3…
04-21 11:54:42	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	182	22¢	$41	0x946f44…
04-21 11:52:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$51	0x47b9e2…
04-11 17:23:55	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	14¢	$2	0x30ae61…
04-11 17:23:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	7¢	$7	0x5f845a…
04-10 15:54:31	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	79	9¢	$7	0xc5e813…
04-10 15:52:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x336aaf…
04-10 15:51:57	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	6¢	$5	0x295fa1…
04-10 15:51:11	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	194	13¢	$25	0x2fc0dc…
04-10 15:49:53	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0xae7abb…
04-10 15:48:21	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	521	12¢	$62	0xd7da8b…
04-10 15:47:31	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0x4512b5…
04-10 08:12:11	highest temperature in milan on april 10 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0x617bec…
04-10 08:11:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0xf8325f…
04-09 17:46:07	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	478	2¢	$11	0x83af96…
04-09 17:37:29	highest temperature in busan on april 10 2026 21corhigher	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x147dbc…
04-09 17:34:05	highest temperature in warsaw on april 10 2026 8c	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xa6a215…
04-09 17:33:09	highest temperature in wellington on april 10 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x373ae7…
04-09 17:32:41	highest temperature in miami on april 9 2026 76 77f	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfc8587…
04-09 17:32:23	highest temperature in atlanta on april 9 2026 68 69f	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xce7361…
04-09 17:31:17	highest temperature in miami on april 9 2026 80 81f	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x47bd0a…
04-09 17:30:49	highest temperature in helsinki on april 11 2026 9c	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x091f24…
04-09 17:30:35	highest temperature in amsterdam on april 11 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa40992…
04-09 17:30:03	highest temperature in madrid on april 10 2026 26c	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x4eca67…
04-09 17:27:55	btc updown 15m 1775755800	Down	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0xb65abb…
04-09 05:13:51	bitcoin above 64k on april 12	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x293885…
04-09 05:13:15	bitcoin above 64k on april 11	No	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xea43f7…
04-09 05:13:09	bitcoin above 66k on april 11	No	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0x98232f…
04-09 05:12:47	bitcoin above 66k on april 10	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xc8fd3c…
04-09 05:12:33	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	No	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x67d67a…
04-09 05:11:55	bitcoin above 68k on april 9	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x64d1f8…
04-08 18:56:01	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x49558b…
04-08 14:30:13	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	56	16¢	$9	0xd3e07d…
04-08 14:27:27	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	Yes	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x72df94…
04-07 18:32:11	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	4¢	$5	0x091b24…
04-07 18:02:51	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 40 64	Yes	BUY	69	9¢	$6	0x88bf81…
04-07 18:02:45	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x5c2816…
04-07 17:59:07	btc updown 15m 1775584800	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x9bab06…
04-07 17:11:25	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xebc3a5…
04-07 17:10:33	btc updown 15m 1775582100	Up	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0x8bb7fb…
04-07 06:21:53	highest temperature in moscow on april 7 2026 9c	Yes	BUY	72	35¢	$25	0x056db0…
04-07 06:18:19	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	64¢	$65	0x1c24d7…
04-04 05:46:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	258	19¢	$49	0x2c1e70…
04-04 05:45:51	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x51aa78…
04-04 05:45:33	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	426	0¢	$2	0xb444e9…
04-04 05:45:03	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xdeb520…
04-04 05:44:49	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	396	2¢	$8	0xaee3fd…
04-04 05:44:37	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	302	3¢	$10	0x266b8c…
04-04 05:41:25	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	148	17¢	$25	0x5de8ed…
04-04 05:39:09	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	401	20¢	$80	0xab9c24…
04-03 10:09:23	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	78	19¢	$15	0xf799ea…
04-03 10:08:33	highest temperature in london on april 3 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x99b867…
04-03 09:59:35	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	Yes	BUY	44	30¢	$13	0x7fde92…
04-03 09:58:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	Yes	SELL	69	62¢	$43	0xe6ed72…
04-03 07:46:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	Yes	BUY	69	55¢	$38	0x42b20e…
04-03 07:45:53	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	SELL	106	36¢	$38	0x2e030a…
04-03 06:05:25	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	144	18¢	$26	0xa6b050…
04-02 19:59:33	cs2 gl1 nip 2026 04 02	NIP	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x139c49…
04-02 17:42:15	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	BUY	116	3¢	$3	0xdb6a7e…
04-02 17:41:53	cs2 gl1 nip 2026 04 02	NIP	SELL	7	50¢	$3	0xe0cfee…
04-02 16:18:11	cs2 gl1 nip 2026 04 02	NIP	BUY	108	51¢	$55	0xbf5ba4…
04-02 16:11:41	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	SELL	1,335	1¢	$11	0xef3340…
04-02 16:11:03	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	Yes	SELL	88	13¢	$11	0x4d0323…
04-02 12:27:45	cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	Unsettled Resentment	SELL	42	55¢	$23	0xb6e175…
04-02 12:23:09	cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	Unsettled Resentment	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x46a71a…
04-02 12:23:07	cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	Unsettled Resentment	SELL	8	55¢	$4	0x6abf75…
04-02 12:23:05	cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	Unsettled Resentment	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xa7f044…
04-02 10:23:53	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	Yes	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0x3cb42e…
04-02 10:23:47	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	BUY	106	41¢	$44	0x866e3a…
04-02 10:23:25	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x0936ad…
04-02 06:25:35	cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	Unsettled Resentment	BUY	53	14¢	$7	0xdc7f75…
04-02 06:25:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x8e5cf2…
04-02 04:22:33	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	BUY	3,335	0¢	$7	0xfaa47f…
04-02 04:22:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	Yes	SELL	83	8¢	$7	0x5bc254…
04-01 17:25:03	cs2 ur tyloo 2026 04 01	Unsettled Resentment	BUY	102	42¢	$43	0x9db199…
04-01 17:23:29	lol cg she1 2026 04 01	StoneHenge Esports	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xee1a48…
04-01 17:22:45	cs2 ds mibra 2026 04 01	MIBR Academy	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x04e3ea…
04-01 17:17:41	cs2 js1 8s 2026 04 01	8Sins	BUY	41	10¢	$4	0xeb7ed1…
04-01 17:13:37	cs2 gl1 9ine 2026 04 01	9INE	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x94551f…
04-01 12:46:49	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	23¢	$50	0x5443b8…
04-01 12:43:15	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	240	24¢	$58	0x27844f…
04-01 12:39:31	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	Yes	SELL	119	1¢	$1	0xd95ae2…
04-01 12:39:11	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	124	0¢	$0	0x79b1df…
04-01 12:39:07	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0x630794…
04-01 12:39:05	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	84	0¢	$0	0x9a027f…
04-01 12:38:57	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	143	0¢	$0	0x206604…
04-01 12:38:49	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0x35a3d3…
04-01 12:38:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	53	4¢	$2	0x53f6b0…
04-01 12:38:05	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	Yes	SELL	111	16¢	$18	0xb00809…
04-01 12:37:51	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	Yes	SELL	149	30¢	$45	0xac1b65…
04-01 12:37:31	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	SELL	138	34¢	$47	0xedaae0…
04-01 12:37:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	Yes	SELL	138	8¢	$11	0xdd6ffe…
04-01 12:02:19	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	122	2¢	$2	0x71da05…
04-01 12:02:19	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	243	1¢	$2	0x4d028c…
04-01 11:42:17	cs2 g2 nem 2026 04 01	Team Nemesis	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xbe867e…
04-01 11:37:41	lol t1 kt 2026 04 01	T1	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x903a61…