Determined-Fog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-01 21:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 100% +$1

Other

31% 100% +$0

Politics

6% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 84k on april 22	2	$52	26	26	+0	open	—	04-21 07:09
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$48	24	24	+0	open	—	04-19 22:33
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?	2	$44	44	0	+44	open	—	05-02 06:33
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	2	$43	43	0	+43	open	—	06-01 20:52
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	05-19 19:07
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$33	17	17	+0	open	—	04-21 07:11
will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 1	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-01 10:33
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 300 319	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	04-23 06:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 28?	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	05-26 18:29
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 340 359	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	04-14 13:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26?	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-25 05:51
bitcoin above 80k on april 16	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-15 04:16
bitcoin above 68k on april 4	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	04-04 15:33
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	02-12 21:07
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 240 259	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	04-12 20:42
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	05-11 22:26
will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	02-05 18:19
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 0 39	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	04-11 23:26
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	05-13 20:09
ethereum above 2100 on april 22	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	04-22 02:33
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28?	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	05-28 21:05
bitcoin above 68k on april 22	2	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	04-21 07:13
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26?	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	04-26 22:10
will jiri lehecka win the 2026 australian open	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	01-07 10:43
will silver si hit high 170 by end of february 258 575 377	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	02-18 14:42
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31?	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	05-29 14:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	05-08 23:46
bitcoin above 82k on april 24	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	04-24 04:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	05-01 05:31
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	1	$22	23	0	+23	open	—	04-27 15:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 21:31:59	Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0x980936…
06-01 20:52:55	Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x8cc89a…
05-31 02:25:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa62467…
05-30 05:43:30	Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0cbdb7…
05-29 14:11:22	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd333ae…
05-28 21:05:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8cc957…
05-28 19:13:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf2b9c9…
05-28 02:53:10	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa07746…
05-26 23:09:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9d2bef…
05-26 18:29:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xdfd909…
05-26 00:53:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x665217…
05-25 06:15:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xb1af89…
05-23 16:35:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x1e99c0…
05-23 08:33:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x500685…
05-19 19:07:29	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xcbd37b…
05-19 17:25:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2734e8…
05-18 23:56:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x432c9a…
05-17 10:01:50	Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2dd854…
05-16 12:50:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x91f28b…
05-16 00:53:20	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x51fcd1…
05-13 20:09:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xae9ec8…
05-13 09:20:53	Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xe5e839…
05-11 22:26:34	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x5635bb…
05-11 19:05:45	Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2d4410…
05-11 15:46:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcf6031…
05-10 23:04:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x60f5e2…
05-10 20:10:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 11?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb3e216…
05-08 23:46:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xda6b0f…
05-07 19:33:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x376e00…
05-07 15:15:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x781401…
05-05 10:45:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2f3dba…
05-04 13:36:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x7e45f8…
05-02 18:42:02	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x695a92…
05-02 06:33:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb1a614…
05-02 05:02:10	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xacfbd7…
05-01 12:06:36	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x35fea5…
05-01 05:31:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x162000…
05-01 02:34:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x79602c…
04-30 18:46:18	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0xe2e0ee…
04-29 13:14:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbecc2b…
04-29 01:04:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8a1514…
04-27 15:30:48	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0x4cf003…
04-26 22:10:46	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa995a7…
04-26 13:41:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb4f49d…
04-25 21:24:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9ee6f2…
04-25 20:02:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe9b94a…
04-25 05:51:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xd1033c…
04-24 19:26:14	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf8bf9b…
04-24 04:03:10	bitcoin above 82k on april 24	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xa62bf2…
04-23 06:11:52	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 300 319	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xc128aa…
04-23 05:08:22	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 320 339	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x5e43de…
04-22 02:33:04	ethereum above 2100 on april 22	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xd8c686…
04-21 07:13:00	bitcoin above 68k on april 22	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x7467d5…
04-21 07:11:42	Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xa92400…
04-21 07:09:18	bitcoin above 84k on april 22	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x773ff9…
04-21 06:31:06	bitcoin above 68k on april 22	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9f9b03…
04-20 23:58:02	bitcoin above 84k on april 22	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1f5053…
04-20 20:58:20	bitcoin above 64k on april 23	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x414b00…
04-19 22:33:18	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xa2f2b9…
04-19 22:26:22	bitcoin above 82k on april 21	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x7b184d…
04-18 16:57:36	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x1cb545…
04-18 00:49:10	bitcoin above 66k on april 20	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9f354f…
04-16 21:43:54	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x08eb67…
04-15 04:16:42	bitcoin above 80k on april 16	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x6e29be…
04-14 22:25:24	bitcoin above 66k on april 17	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd2791b…
04-14 13:15:59	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 340 359	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x1d0193…
04-12 20:42:27	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 240 259	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6466b6…
04-12 20:37:03	highest temperature in chicago on april 14 2026 58forhigher	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x06b9d2…
04-12 05:29:17	highest temperature in denver on april 12 2026 64 65f	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xfb75af…
04-11 23:26:25	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 0 39	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x83933d…
04-07 07:46:45	bitcoin above 72k on april 7	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x9d7f05…
04-04 15:33:13	bitcoin above 68k on april 4	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x876488…
04-01 11:46:11	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on april 1	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x018eb9…
04-01 10:33:31	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 1	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xa005cc…
03-17 02:08:33	will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x87da19…
03-15 01:24:29	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6ffed8…
03-08 11:15:53	will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xe081ab…
03-03 15:08:47	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 500 519	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8c29c0…
02-19 06:26:24	Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xc8d8f7…
02-18 14:42:14	will silver si hit high 170 by end of february 258 575 377	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe7eb61…
02-12 21:07:17	will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x2038f6…
02-05 18:19:23	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xa4a93a…
01-22 12:32:40	will frances tiafoe win the 2026 australian open	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x510b2d…
01-13 22:46:28	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f58e9…
01-12 12:08:34	will lorenzo musetti win the 2026 australian open	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xc24f0e…
01-07 10:43:05	will jiri lehecka win the 2026 australian open	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x83260a…