Granular-Nestling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

295

lifetime

Volume

$39.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$135

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

80% 100% +$12

Politics

18% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	13	$1.5K	826	679	+147	open	—	06-28 15:08
spx opens up or down on july 6 2026	3	$1.4K	736	736	+0	open	—	07-06 15:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	4	$1.4K	757	757	+0	open	—	04-08 00:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$1.4K	893	893	+0	open	—	04-08 00:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$1.3K	690	690	+0	open	—	04-05 14:07
spx up or down on july 7 2026	13	$1.3K	666	666	+0	open	—	07-07 18:48
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$1.2K	664	664	+0	open	—	03-31 10:44
spx up or down on july 8 2026	2	$1.2K	667	667	+0	open	—	07-08 15:14
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	3	$1.2K	620	620	+0	open	—	03-30 12:08
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$1.1K	570	570	+0	open	—	03-22 00:03
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	4	$1.0K	590	590	+0	open	—	03-11 14:31
will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	12	$983	595	595	+0	open	—	03-06 18:52
spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	6	$881	450	450	+0	open	—	07-14 13:34
will msft dip to 360 in february	2	$764	427	427	+0	open	—	02-18 22:41
spx up or down on july 6 2026	3	$735	758	0	+758	open	—	07-06 15:38
will diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes 465	8	$652	342	341	+1	open	—	01-25 03:43
will msft reach 405 by july 6 2026	3	$627	663	0	+663	open	—	07-08 16:46
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	6	$622	317	317	+0	open	—	05-13 12:38
spx opens up or down on july 20 2026	4	$613	309	309	+0	open	—	07-20 13:45
spy closes above 775 on june 16 2026	1	$608	609	0	+609	open	—	06-16 16:01
cbb csunr hawaii 2026 01 24	2	$596	300	300	+0	open	—	01-25 08:31
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$594	300	300	+0	open	—	02-15 05:59
lol mvk cfo 2026 01 25	3	$585	300	300	+0	open	—	01-25 10:41
will msft dip to 450 in february	2	$573	295	295	+0	open	—	02-02 16:55
spy closes above 710 on june 11 2026	2	$555	561	0	+561	open	—	06-11 10:16
spx up or down on june 15 2026	5	$552	587	0	+587	open	—	06-15 10:19
spy closes above 715 on june 10 2026	2	$540	550	0	+550	open	—	06-10 12:34
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2	$539	278	278	+0	open	—	01-30 22:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$519	520	0	+520	open	—	05-31 11:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$509	520	0	+520	open	—	05-25 20:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 13:49:37	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	130	90¢	$117	0xb1d2c5…
07-20 13:49:37	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x631d66…
07-20 13:49:37	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x496bcf…
07-20 13:45:34	spx opens up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	309	100¢	$309	0xab5a01…
07-20 11:06:01	spx opens up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x69b54f…
07-20 11:05:40	spx opens up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	143	99¢	$141	0x6c1b1c…
07-20 11:00:12	spx opens up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x6127a1…
07-15 00:59:34	will msft reach 412 50 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	305	94¢	$286	0x513eea…
07-15 00:58:53	will msft reach 405 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	62	85¢	$53	0xb2775d…
07-15 00:58:47	will msft reach 405 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	164	84¢	$138	0xbaa817…
07-14 13:38:49	msft up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xbcfd14…
07-14 13:38:47	msft up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	140	94¢	$132	0xfbc0c0…
07-14 13:38:47	msft up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	110	94¢	$103	0x079865…
07-14 13:38:46	msft up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	210	94¢	$197	0x26394d…
07-14 13:34:52	spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	Up	SELL	450	100¢	$450	0xc3380c…
07-14 12:39:14	spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	122	96¢	$118	0x524ef8…
07-14 12:39:07	spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0xd49b2f…
07-14 12:38:22	spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x6da218…
07-14 12:38:20	spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	15	96¢	$15	0x2bb064…
07-14 12:37:38	spx opens up or down on july 14 2026	Up	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0x403de3…
07-13 05:10:34	spx opens up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	435	90¢	$392	0x4af80a…
07-13 04:35:19	spy closes above 760 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	129	99¢	$128	0xcc9e4f…
07-13 04:34:58	spy closes above 765 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0xcab22c…
07-13 04:34:07	spy closes above 755 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	41	80¢	$33	0xf930a8…
07-13 04:31:29	msft close above 400 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x11a575…
07-13 04:30:58	msft close above 410 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbe98ab…
07-08 16:46:55	will msft reach 405 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	474	95¢	$451	0x5d3f34…
07-08 16:46:29	will msft reach 405 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	133	94¢	$125	0x8a6500…
07-08 16:42:13	will msft reach 405 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	55	93¢	$52	0x839765…
07-08 16:41:50	will msft reach 420 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa545b9…
07-08 16:41:28	will msft reach 442 50 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x386af0…
07-08 16:41:04	will msft reach 427 50 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7cb135…
07-08 15:14:29	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	667	96¢	$640	0xdfa361…
07-08 11:43:49	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	667	87¢	$580	0x60af10…
07-07 18:48:32	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	559	97¢	$542	0x59d1cf…
07-07 18:47:46	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe23e04…
07-07 18:47:46	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x06aacd…
07-07 18:47:44	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xcc4316…
07-07 18:47:44	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xac22f5…
07-07 18:47:43	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xfa0477…
07-07 18:47:43	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xa7b7ac…
07-07 18:47:41	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x692fcf…
07-07 18:47:41	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x383f57…
07-07 18:39:01	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x93e1a0…
07-07 18:38:59	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xf86ad1…
07-07 18:38:59	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x94aa1e…
07-07 16:00:53	spx up or down on july 7 2026	Down	BUY	666	94¢	$626	0x3c2dc6…
07-07 13:18:17	spx opens up or down on july 7 2026	Down	BUY	136	96¢	$130	0xd31c7d…
07-06 15:38:43	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	158	97¢	$153	0x9153a2…
07-06 15:31:38	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	61	97¢	$59	0x7c9a72…
07-06 15:31:37	spx up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	539	97¢	$523	0xd4c28e…
07-06 15:26:14	spx opens up or down on july 6 2026	Up	SELL	736	100¢	$735	0x5cccb8…
07-06 09:13:28	spx opens up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	273	95¢	$259	0xec6ccd…
07-06 09:12:50	spx opens up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	463	95¢	$440	0x434602…
07-01 00:37:35	will msft dip to 352 50 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xaedb25…
07-01 00:36:47	will msft reach 420 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x0b86dd…
07-01 00:36:29	will msft reach 412 50 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x2005cf…
07-01 00:36:08	will msft reach 412 50 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xf32b5e…
07-01 00:35:44	will msft dip to 345 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	155	99¢	$153	0x2c2fe1…
07-01 00:35:20	will msft dip to 337 50 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	192	99¢	$190	0x1bca6b…
07-01 00:34:56	will msft dip to 330 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x808db0…
07-01 00:34:28	will msft dip to 322 50 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xde86d9…
06-30 03:01:23	will msft reach 405 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x936d28…
06-29 01:19:52	will spy dip to 710 in june 2026	No	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0x51e4bd…
06-29 01:17:01	will spy dip to 700 in june 2026	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x344793…
06-29 01:16:37	will spy dip to 700 in june 2026	No	BUY	400	98¢	$392	0xc187a3…
06-29 01:13:02	msft close above 350 on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x1a7fe5…
06-29 01:12:40	msft close above 330 on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x95e9a0…
06-29 01:12:02	msft close above 340 on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0x3aed03…
06-28 15:08:38	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	533	99¢	$529	0x89dcff…
06-28 13:03:16	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0xd0944f…
06-28 07:11:02	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x277f97…
06-28 05:59:14	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x1c0060…
06-28 04:55:43	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xbe6e8e…
06-28 04:55:31	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xda3dc3…
06-28 03:28:37	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x389e4c…
06-28 03:21:22	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x5e4e55…
06-28 03:04:25	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xd3860e…
06-28 02:54:22	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x5880cb…
06-28 01:04:25	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x3898b8…
06-27 10:55:46	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	479	99¢	$475	0xaa0dc7…
06-27 10:53:59	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xecc4bb…
06-24 21:20:07	will msft reach 390 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x451a77…
06-24 21:19:37	will msft reach 397 50 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x38a964…
06-24 21:18:43	will msft reach 405 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x8588d0…
06-24 20:39:28	will msft reach 412 50 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x001637…
06-24 20:39:11	will msft reach 420 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x99430e…
06-24 20:37:47	will msft reach 427 50 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x8c15db…
06-24 20:36:25	will msft reach 390 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x725cad…
06-24 20:35:49	will msft reach 397 50 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	252	97¢	$245	0x24df5e…
06-24 04:07:25	will msft reach 397 50 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	137	90¢	$123	0xd06c07…
06-24 04:06:47	will msft reach 405 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	117	95¢	$111	0x09786a…
06-24 00:43:32	msft close above 360 on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x86707b…
06-24 00:42:55	msft close above 350 on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x327898…
06-24 00:42:25	msft close above 390 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x6ed544…
06-24 00:40:13	spy closes above 720 on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0x9d50a4…
06-24 00:39:14	spy closes above 720 on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x6c641d…
06-24 00:38:11	spy closes above 715 on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x547755…
06-23 03:01:08	spy closes above 755 on june 23 2026	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x2232d7…
06-23 02:01:08	msft close above 390 on june 23 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x8d7a16…