Granular-Nestling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

156

lifetime

Volume

$22.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$145

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 12:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

65% 100% +$12

Politics

32% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	4	$1.4K	757	757	+0	open	—	04-08 00:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$1.4K	893	893	+0	open	—	04-08 00:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$1.3K	690	690	+0	open	—	04-05 14:07
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$1.2K	664	664	+0	open	—	03-31 10:44
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	3	$1.2K	620	620	+0	open	—	03-30 12:08
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$1.1K	570	570	+0	open	—	03-22 00:03
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	4	$1.0K	590	590	+0	open	—	03-11 14:31
will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	12	$983	595	595	+0	open	—	03-06 18:52
will msft dip to 360 in february	2	$764	427	427	+0	open	—	02-18 22:41
will diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes 465	8	$652	342	341	+1	open	—	01-25 03:43
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	6	$622	317	317	+0	open	—	05-13 12:38
cbb csunr hawaii 2026 01 24	2	$596	300	300	+0	open	—	01-25 08:31
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$594	300	300	+0	open	—	02-15 05:59
lol mvk cfo 2026 01 25	3	$585	300	300	+0	open	—	01-25 10:41
will msft dip to 450 in february	2	$573	295	295	+0	open	—	02-02 16:55
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2	$539	278	278	+0	open	—	01-30 22:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$519	520	0	+520	open	—	05-31 11:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$509	520	0	+520	open	—	05-25 20:15
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	7	$448	454	0	+454	open	—	05-13 13:07
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	1	$416	420	0	+420	Up	+$4	05-06 11:17
will the fed cutcutcut in the next three decisions decjanmar	2	$414	212	212	+0	open	—	01-24 15:22
will amzn dip to 192 in february	5	$407	440	0	+440	open	—	02-23 21:46
spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	7	$402	403	0	+403	open	—	06-08 13:38
spy closes above 720 on june 9 2026	3	$386	390	0	+390	open	—	06-09 12:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	2	$356	360	0	+360	No	+$4	05-08 10:05
msft above 390 on february 6 2026	1	$316	338	0	+338	open	—	02-04 11:19
btc updown 15m 1770080400	4	$297	300	0	+300	open	—	02-03 01:14
will spy reach 780 by june 1 2026	1	$291	300	0	+300	open	—	06-03 06:59
afc u23 final china vs japan	2	$285	300	0	+300	open	—	01-24 15:26
msft above 390 on february 13 2026	1	$285	300	0	+300	open	—	02-12 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 12:45:12	spy closes above 755 on june 9 2026	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0x660bb2…
06-09 12:34:42	spx opens up or down on june 9 2026	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xd815ca…
06-09 12:25:55	spy closes above 720 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb46510…
06-09 12:23:43	spy closes above 720 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	370	99¢	$366	0x8ea600…
06-09 12:23:25	spy closes above 720 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9f77e2…
06-08 13:38:16	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0xbe0046…
06-08 13:37:24	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x093f5e…
06-08 13:33:25	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x7a77ea…
06-08 13:32:07	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x15ffbf…
06-08 12:20:51	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x26d213…
06-08 12:18:04	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	87	99¢	$87	0xd87ed7…
06-08 12:17:40	spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0xd8dbd4…
06-05 13:15:09	spx opens up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	230	100¢	$230	0xecf846…
06-04 02:28:33	spy closes above 765 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	229	99¢	$227	0x4b3fc4…
06-04 02:26:43	spy closes above 765 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x438165…
06-03 06:59:00	will spy reach 780 by june 1 2026	No	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0x0a7170…
05-31 11:26:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	259	100¢	$258	0x5c06e5…
05-31 11:26:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	261	100¢	$260	0xd43af7…
05-25 20:15:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	520	98¢	$509	0x688d9d…
05-13 13:07:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x773d1a…
05-13 12:44:45	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3016b4…
05-13 12:44:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xdc0cbe…
05-13 12:38:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0xc43397…
05-13 12:38:17	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	317	100¢	$317	0x7067b6…
05-13 12:36:51	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0x47966e…
05-13 12:36:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x5c2721…
05-13 12:34:50	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe0a354…
05-11 13:29:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	60	98¢	$58	0xfa5f14…
05-11 13:27:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xdc13b5…
05-10 11:50:29	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0x452c0e…
05-10 11:20:09	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0xe029ad…
05-10 11:05:23	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xde2170…
05-10 10:50:10	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5e742c…
05-10 10:46:49	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	148	96¢	$143	0xcb907a…
05-08 10:05:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	348	99¢	$344	0x40f0e0…
05-08 09:44:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x5ddb1d…
05-07 11:37:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x4ae997…
05-06 11:17:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	420	99¢	$416	0x06dae3…
04-29 20:53:44	Will Google reach $375 in April?	No	SELL	115	18¢	$20	0x59ea86…
04-27 21:48:20	Will Google reach $375 in April?	No	BUY	115	97¢	$111	0x85b8aa…
04-27 21:47:06	Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0xbc701d…
04-08 00:58:19	Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$101	0xdc44ae…
04-08 00:51:45	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	893	73¢	$649	0xba4842…
04-08 00:37:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	893	82¢	$734	0x29c1c2…
04-08 00:37:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	757	97¢	$734	0xeb76a2…
04-05 16:32:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	147	90¢	$132	0x75229e…
04-05 16:13:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xc5a13b…
04-05 15:54:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xa84591…
04-05 14:07:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	690	98¢	$675	0x974754…
04-01 09:11:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	690	94¢	$649	0xd1b9f2…
03-31 10:49:33	spx opens up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xb2880b…
03-31 10:44:55	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	664	95¢	$631	0xfb6413…
03-30 19:37:15	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	664	92¢	$610	0xaabb0d…
03-30 12:08:40	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd65e84…
03-30 12:03:08	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	618	98¢	$606	0x74cba8…
03-22 00:15:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	620	90¢	$558	0xde0e83…
03-22 00:03:17	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	570	98¢	$561	0xfc7513…
03-17 01:30:49	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	570	96¢	$549	0xafe571…
03-11 14:31:33	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	590	93¢	$549	0x88ee54…
03-08 19:56:05	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	516	80¢	$413	0xc8e5b2…
03-08 19:52:41	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	64	80¢	$51	0x5d671a…
03-08 19:44:57	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xdb8f8b…
03-08 19:39:37	btc updown 5m 1772998500	Down	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xf63fbe…
03-08 19:34:27	btc updown 5m 1772998200	Up	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0xdd3808…
03-08 19:34:27	btc updown 5m 1772998200	Up	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0x3b4d24…
03-06 18:52:37	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	122	80¢	$97	0x7b0b79…
03-06 18:40:33	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	139	80¢	$111	0xf9d731…
03-06 13:29:13	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0x3b972a…
03-04 03:02:45	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	32	90¢	$29	0x1e0527…
03-03 15:29:09	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0xcb9232…
03-03 15:00:07	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	229	90¢	$206	0xc1fa58…
03-03 00:28:19	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x851041…
03-03 00:28:15	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x3957b7…
02-28 15:45:27	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	BUY	95	78¢	$74	0x733639…
02-28 15:36:49	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	BUY	139	80¢	$111	0x1cb894…
02-28 15:36:35	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	BUY	356	80¢	$285	0x920fdd…
02-28 15:35:45	will sofi technologies sofi be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x549a21…
02-23 21:46:48	will amzn dip to 192 in february	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x1ec9e7…
02-21 19:14:02	will amzn dip to 192 in february	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x85a792…
02-21 19:13:50	will amzn dip to 192 in february	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x3c4635…
02-21 19:12:38	googl above 290 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x0c4ef5…
02-21 18:56:46	will amzn dip to 192 in february	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xfd9da1…
02-21 18:56:26	will amzn dip to 192 in february	No	BUY	150	92¢	$138	0xf4685f…
02-18 23:06:24	msft above 390 on february 20 2026	Yes	BUY	294	85¢	$250	0x2bc4f1…
02-18 22:41:02	will msft dip to 360 in february	No	SELL	427	93¢	$397	0xdd2de7…
02-15 06:06:53	will msft dip to 360 in february	No	BUY	427	86¢	$367	0x38fe8b…
02-15 06:05:51	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	No	SELL	42	89¢	$38	0xd08f97…
02-15 05:59:51	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x7f52ac…
02-14 14:35:41	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	300	98¢	$295	0xfed04e…
02-12 20:50:09	msft above 390 on february 13 2026	Yes	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x8c67f7…
02-10 02:55:41	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x5239f1…
02-08 07:47:05	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x36b63e…
02-08 03:19:51	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	No	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0xfcb4ff…
02-08 03:15:35	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x7e151a…
02-08 03:12:45	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 8	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xa83ee6…
02-08 01:57:53	msft close above 390 on february 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6ee3df…
02-04 11:19:32	msft above 390 on february 6 2026	Yes	BUY	338	93¢	$316	0x6eabdc…
02-03 01:14:32	btc updown 15m 1770080400	Down	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x71d3d6…
02-03 01:14:26	btc updown 15m 1770080400	Down	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x87c09c…
02-03 01:14:26	btc updown 15m 1770080400	Down	BUY	128	99¢	$127	0x7c5446…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	37	$10.6M	13,068	06-09 01:48
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	35	$4.64K	881	06-09 12:50
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	27	$155.6K	11,661	05-04 11:13
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	24	$319.1K	5,259	06-09 18:08
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	21	$52.2K	5,092	03-28 06:37
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	21	$2.40K	1,001	06-09 12:13
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	20	$67.8K	7,719	06-09 09:58
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	20	$55.7K	332	05-27 19:06