Miserly-Fencing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$571

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.7%

Resolved

163

Trades

273

lifetime

Volume

$13.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 10-27 20:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

87% 76% +$1,069

Crypto

7% 76% -$187

Politics

6% 0% -$310

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.6B?	2	$1.3K	655	655	+0	No	+$0	05-20 20:59
Will Salesforce Q1 current RPO growth (CC) be between 13% and 14%?	2	$1.0K	558	558	+0	Yes	+$93	05-27 23:43
Will Ulta Q1 comparable sales growth be between 4% and 5.5%?	2	$939	988	0	+988	Yes	+$49	06-02 20:05
Will AutoZone Q3 domestic same store sales growth be between 3.5% and 4.5%?	5	$868	481	481	+0	Yes	+$93	05-26 20:32
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.5B?	2	$449	391	391	+0	No	+$332	05-20 21:12
will trump post filibuster on truth social this week	2	$438	220	220	+0	Yes	-$2	03-23 00:59
will they will kill you opening weekend box office be between 5m and 6m	6	$408	205	205	+0	No	+$0	03-31 03:11
Will Home Depot Q1 comparable sales growth be between 0.5% and 1%?	4	$403	805	0	+805	Yes	+$402	05-19 10:01
will khamenei tweet again on march 21 2026 649 572	2	$402	213	213	+0	Yes	+$22	03-21 13:49
will hoppers 4th weekend box office be less than 10m	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	03-29 19:36
will project hail mary 2nd weekend box office be between 42m and 46m	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	03-29 19:33
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $8.0B?	4	$399	418	0	+418	No	+$18	06-01 20:05
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.50B?	1	$350	354	0	+354	Yes	+$4	05-21 20:05
Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3?	2	$339	178	178	+0	No	+$14	05-13 20:24
will trump post ballroom on truth social this week 694	1	$300	301	0	+301	No	-$300	04-13 06:38
Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $8.5B in Q3?	2	$263	137	137	+0	Yes	+$9	05-13 20:24
will elon musks net worth be between 640b and 650b on march 31	2	$260	131	131	+0	Yes	$0	03-31 23:16
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.55B?	5	$252	172	172	+0	No	+$91	05-20 20:59
Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above $5.9B in Q2?	2	$247	252	0	+252	Yes	+$5	05-14 20:01
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	4	$211	110	110	+0	No	+$7	04-01 23:45
Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 15% to 18%?	2	$199	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	10-26 20:05
highest temperature in miami on march 24 2026 80 81f	2	$197	102	102	+0	No	-$3	03-24 17:31
will khamenei tweet again on march 22 2026 622 684	1	$190	203	0	+203	Yes	+$13	03-22 04:28
will mrbeast say subscribe during his next video 268	6	$140	305	0	+305	No	+$165	03-21 16:00
highest temperature in toronto on march 27 2026 0c	2	$135	114	114	+0	Yes	-$65	03-27 12:06
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $7.5B?	3	$133	139	0	+139	Yes	+$6	06-01 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	6	$121	1,452	0	+1,452	Down	-$121	10-24 20:58
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.70B?	1	$115	133	0	+133	No	+$18	05-21 20:05
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $7.0B?	4	$113	124	0	+124	Yes	+$11	06-01 20:05
highest temperature in toronto on march 27 2026 neg 1c	1	$100	102	0	+102	No	+$2	03-27 04:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:06:00	Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	94	64¢	$60	0xfcc4b7…
10-27 20:06:00	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 13.5% to 14.5%?	Yes	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0xb0acd2…
10-27 07:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	46	73¢	$34	0xd6115b…
10-27 07:59:20	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xc07209…
10-27 07:59:08	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x30fc9d…
10-27 07:55:03	ZCash Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2e0e45…
10-27 07:50:15	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc88581…
10-27 06:59:39	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x60f21a…
10-27 06:50:41	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x693225…
10-27 06:44:00	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x54f1a7…
10-27 05:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x9d7de4…
10-27 04:54:50	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xddaaec…
10-27 03:55:02	ZCash Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xea72e0…
10-27 01:53:50	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x99640f…
10-27 01:00:00	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xbe15e1…
10-26 23:55:59	ZCash Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfb803e…
10-26 23:55:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xdcc822…
10-26 23:55:03	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd91ced…
10-26 23:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x1bfe19…
10-26 22:53:02	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x950020…
10-26 20:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd8d228…
10-26 20:14:14	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x7aae54…
10-26 20:05:05	Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 15% to 18%?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x42652e…
10-26 20:05:03	Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 15% to 18%?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf407ee…
10-26 19:59:00	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0xa755f6…
10-26 19:58:05	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xd84a5e…
10-26 19:55:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$11	0x9170e4…
10-26 19:44:51	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0x69fcff…
10-26 18:52:06	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xff8b45…
10-26 18:44:00	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x5dcb2b…
10-26 17:55:30	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xaa9fa1…
10-26 17:44:02	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x51387a…
10-26 16:50:05	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d0ac7…
10-26 15:56:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x8246f5…
10-26 15:55:08	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x961d53…
10-26 15:55:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xaafc69…
10-26 15:55:03	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	97¢	$13	0x93148a…
10-26 15:54:45	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6a3bda…
10-26 14:29:11	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xdb41e9…
10-26 13:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x35cfac…
10-26 12:53:27	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa78e46…
10-26 10:58:09	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa834d6…
10-26 09:52:17	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x094a5e…
10-26 07:57:30	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1ad02f…
10-26 07:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0x08bdd9…
10-26 07:29:39	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0x92c2bc…
10-26 07:14:27	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xf4ca59…
10-26 06:50:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x38ca8d…
10-26 05:56:51	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x61066a…
10-26 05:29:15	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbb52ab…
10-26 05:14:00	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x82363d…
10-26 04:29:06	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x8e61a1…
10-26 03:55:03	ZCash Up or Down - October 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x48a258…
10-26 03:44:00	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x21f952…
10-26 03:29:41	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xd69ea3…
10-26 02:50:20	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xfca238…
10-26 01:50:51	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x2efcc7…
10-26 00:59:32	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0x29ad93…
10-26 00:44:36	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xf88bc6…
10-25 23:59:33	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5815cd…
10-25 23:56:00	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0x89d06f…
10-25 23:44:06	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xc08714…
10-25 21:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0x769293…
10-25 21:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xe968d4…
10-25 21:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x1c2b3c…
10-25 21:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x550c42…
10-25 20:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	42¢	$4	0xac74b9…
10-25 20:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xee2689…
10-25 20:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x670d34…
10-25 20:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8e2b95…
10-25 20:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x03620e…
10-25 19:58:53	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x4c09c8…
10-25 19:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	21	11¢	$2	0xca4b1c…
10-25 19:56:03	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x8809ed…
10-25 19:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x47dfbd…
10-25 18:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x7293c1…
10-25 17:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x666d59…
10-25 17:44:08	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xaba26a…
10-25 17:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0xd5f8d5…
10-25 17:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x003933…
10-25 16:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0x61bf42…
10-25 16:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x93b2b8…
10-25 16:14:02	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf9f9b7…
10-25 15:59:15	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x536e24…
10-25 15:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x01661a…
10-25 15:55:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x3a7b86…
10-25 14:13:30	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xc30658…
10-25 14:12:45	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x02370f…
10-25 13:59:15	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xd28e65…
10-25 13:13:44	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xd10ea8…
10-25 13:13:42	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x6d4e42…
10-25 12:44:27	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe379c9…
10-25 11:58:53	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf82203…
10-25 11:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd7b83d…
10-25 11:55:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x772c64…
10-25 11:55:08	Solana Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf3516a…
10-25 10:44:36	BNB Up or Down - October 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x61cc3c…
10-24 20:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	450	2¢	$9	0xef61d2…
10-24 20:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	109	7¢	$8	0xa818c3…
10-24 20:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	91	7¢	$6	0x7d4cce…