Crafty-Wrinkle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$53

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.2%

Resolved (90d)

103

Trades (90d)

108

674 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.94K

$9.98K lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-20

last 10-24 07:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 86% -$307

Other

49% 56% -$154

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down june 6 2026 11pm et	2	$368	189	189	+0	Up	+$8	06-07 03:56
bitcoin up or down june 5 2026 9pm et	2	$368	189	189	+0	Down	+$8	06-06 01:56
bitcoin up or down on june 6 2026	2	$272	187	93	+93	Up	+$6	06-06 15:41
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 12pm et	1	$180	189	0	+189	Down	-$180	06-07 16:54
val edg1 fut1 2026 06 13	4	$170	238	208	+30	EDward Gaming	+$120	06-13 16:19
val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19	2	$155	618	0	+618	Paper Rex	-$155	06-19 13:55
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22?	6	$118	129	0	+129	No	+$12	06-22 06:01
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 27?	9	$111	112	0	+112	No	+$1	06-27 06:09
val edg1 lev1 2026 06 20	1	$100	303	0	+303	Leviatán Esports	-$100	06-20 11:25
bitcoin up or down june 9 2026 1am et	2	$83	43	43	+0	Up	+$3	06-09 05:58
bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 8am et	2	$83	43	43	+0	Up	+$3	06-08 12:57
bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 10pm et	2	$83	43	43	+0	Down	+$3	06-11 02:59
bitcoin up or down june 11 2026 12am et	2	$83	43	43	+0	Up	+$3	06-11 05:00
bitcoin up or down june 18 2026 4am et	2	$83	43	43	+0	Down	+$3	06-18 08:56
bitcoin up or down june 17 2026 2pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-17 18:56
bitcoin up or down june 18 2026 2am et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Up	+$2	06-18 06:57
bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 2pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-10 18:55
bitcoin up or down june 14 2026 6pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Up	+$2	06-14 22:58
bitcoin up or down june 16 2026 2pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-16 18:56
bitcoin up or down june 11 2026 3am et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-11 07:59
bitcoin up or down june 13 2026 11am et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Up	+$2	06-13 15:58
bitcoin up or down june 16 2026 10pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-17 02:59
bitcoin up or down june 15 2026 3pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-15 19:57
bitcoin up or down june 13 2026 5am et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-13 09:59
bitcoin up or down june 9 2026 8am et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-09 12:57
bitcoin up or down june 15 2026 4pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-15 20:57
bitcoin up or down june 11 2026 7pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Up	+$2	06-11 23:57
bitcoin up or down june 12 2026 11am et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-12 15:55
bitcoin up or down june 11 2026 12pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-11 16:55
bitcoin up or down june 14 2026 9pm et	2	$82	43	43	+0	Down	+$2	06-15 01:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 07:14:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,100	2¢	$24	0xcaf81b…
10-21 09:01:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,100	2¢	$25	0xed8b3b…
10-20 05:29:41	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	6¢	$24	0x86fa99…
10-19 17:05:44	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	8¢	$12	0x66ab45…
10-19 16:45:54	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	8¢	$16	0x7a12e3…
10-19 15:59:56	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x6b19ae…
10-18 15:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 18?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x28da7d…
10-17 17:11:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on October 17?	No	BUY	28	87¢	$24	0x23fed0…
10-17 08:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on October 17?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x5165ce…
10-16 15:31:18	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 16?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x012d68…
10-15 05:53:14	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or higher on October 15?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xe7b27a…
10-13 19:29:09	spy closes above 775 on october 13 2026	No	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xfc3b52…
10-13 19:29:09	nvda close above 230 on october 13 2026	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x92922f…
10-12 19:29:06	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3d2ce5…
10-12 19:29:05	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x768007…
10-12 19:29:05	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	94	1¢	$1	0x727476…
10-12 10:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on October 12?	No	BUY	28	68¢	$19	0x601a53…
10-12 04:49:08	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 12?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xb2fb88…
10-10 17:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on October 10?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x59b165…
10-09 17:40:43	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on October 9?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x54b452…
10-08 17:32:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on October 8?	No	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0xc6b0f8…
10-07 19:29:10	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 7?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x5a9873…
10-06 19:29:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 6?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf811d1…
10-06 05:06:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 6?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xdc91f6…
10-05 19:29:10	spy closes above 775 on october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xdc1585…
10-05 10:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on October 5?	No	BUY	28	86¢	$24	0x932675…
10-03 04:10:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 3?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x20eaf9…
10-02 19:29:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $235 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x5281d8…
10-01 19:29:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 1?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x5a0bd0…
10-01 04:57:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 1?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x676412…
09-30 19:29:09	spy closes above 765 on september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xa4241e…
09-29 19:29:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on September 29?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf8000d…
09-29 04:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 29?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$27	0xb2f201…
09-28 19:29:09	spy closes above 765 on september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x780d5e…
09-28 19:29:09	nvda close above 230 on september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x640db7…
09-28 19:29:09	tsla close above 360 on september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	78	6¢	$5	0x41ce6c…
09-28 17:26:54	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on September 28?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x393905…
09-26 15:30:33	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on September 26?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x2c850d…
09-26 04:05:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 26?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xedabf0…
09-25 04:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 25?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x28bc00…
09-25 04:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or higher on September 25?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x9dca5d…
09-24 15:31:17	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 24?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x2c781b…
09-24 05:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on September 24?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x1b4c47…
09-11 04:03:40	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 11?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xbcdcbf…
09-11 04:03:31	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 11?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xd73e5a…
09-10 04:50:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 10?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xdc083e…
09-10 04:22:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 10?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xe20c2b…
09-09 15:31:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on September 9?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x0d57f8…
09-09 09:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on September 9?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xfba1e7…
09-08 15:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 8?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x4a1426…
09-08 04:15:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 8?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6f2c18…
09-07 17:13:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on September 7?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x06bfa5…
09-07 15:31:01	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on September 7?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xb0503d…
09-06 10:11:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on September 6?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xb54fa5…
09-05 04:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on September 5?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x97274e…
09-04 17:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on September 4?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x66a4b8…
09-04 04:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 4?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x950963…
09-04 04:01:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on September 4?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x298dae…
09-03 15:30:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on September 3?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x6d1672…
09-02 15:30:34	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on September 2?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0xa93117…
09-01 15:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on September 1?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xa1180b…
08-31 17:33:21	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 31?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x2523c2…
08-31 04:06:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 31?	No	BUY	28	91¢	$25	0xd74384…
08-30 04:03:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 30?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xca8fca…
08-29 04:18:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x1a034c…
08-28 17:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 28?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x2b78f0…
08-28 17:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 28?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xdd9d06…
08-28 10:31:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 28?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xa02e4e…
08-28 04:29:22	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 28?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x127ba1…
08-28 04:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 28?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xde28de…
08-27 15:31:01	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 27?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x3e1934…
08-25 17:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 25?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xf42656…
08-25 04:30:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0xab4090…
08-24 15:31:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 24?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x9cffc1…
08-23 04:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 23?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf14adf…
08-23 04:30:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 23?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x3582fe…
08-22 04:31:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 22?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0xe2ee59…
08-21 04:31:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on August 21?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xf8473b…
08-20 15:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on August 20?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x43ea11…
08-19 18:31:15	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 19?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x16b235…
08-18 18:31:09	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 18?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x712ab6…
08-18 15:44:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 18?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x026a51…
08-17 15:30:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on August 17?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xb6866e…
08-16 10:30:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 16?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x382dee…
08-16 04:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 16?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x433426…
08-15 04:30:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 15?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x190be0…
08-14 15:58:12	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 14?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x6c6242…
08-14 04:51:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xaf38a7…
08-13 18:30:46	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 13?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x292ecf…
08-13 04:09:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 13?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xe49b48…
08-12 17:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 12?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x08ccef…
08-12 04:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 12?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x5387a2…
08-12 04:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 12?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x6ed88f…
08-12 04:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 12?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xaeb1f9…
08-10 04:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on August 10?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x73c66b…
08-09 04:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 9?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x73e209…
08-08 05:09:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 8?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x029298…
08-08 04:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on August 8?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x3bdc20…
08-08 04:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x422e84…
08-07 04:13:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 7?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x86a5dd…