Ill-Fated-Insolence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

1,938

Trades

6,561

lifetime

Volume

$111.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-29 16:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 54% -$4,588

Other

11% 29% -$7,649

Sports

7% 35% +$468

Politics

2% 56% -$940

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 534 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes		-34	-$15	38¢	$-13	+$2	05-11 21:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	67	$2.8K	5,562	0	+5,562	No	-$2,773	04-12 17:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	15	$1.7K	2,568	0	+2,568	Down	-$782	09-09 17:28
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$1.6K	1,876	1,876	+0	Yes	+$832	07-19 22:12
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	5	$1.5K	7,957	0	+7,957	No	-$1,504	04-12 19:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 19:00 UTC	15	$1.4K	2,383	0	+2,383	Up	-$83	07-28 19:12
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$1.3K	847	847	+0	Spain	+$345	07-19 22:28
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$1.0K	1,755	1,755	+0	No	-$989	10-25 20:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 13:30 UTC	12	$900	1,328	0	+1,328	Down	-$33	07-28 13:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 07:45 UTC	7	$865	565	565	+0	Down	+$265	09-18 07:59
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	2	$856	479	479	+0	Yes	+$73	04-24 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	11	$850	1,359	0	+1,359	Up	+$5	09-15 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	3	$830	562	562	+0	Up	+$230	09-15 15:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-13 09:00 UTC	3	$815	520	520	+0	Up	+$215	09-13 09:14
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	26	$784	378,337	378,337	+0	No	-$28	06-21 19:25
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	128	$763	381,594	381,594	+0	No	$0	06-16 20:14
will fidesz kdnp win at least 90 seats	8	$728	2,136	0	+2,136	No	-$728	03-24 12:36
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$671	20,394	16,278	+4,116	No	-$117	06-29 21:44
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	9	$659	2,969	2,969	+0	No	-$626	06-21 09:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 16:15 UTC	14	$650	1,207	0	+1,207	Up	+$81	07-27 16:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 11:15 UTC	26	$586	917	0	+917	Down	-$287	07-29 11:25
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$582	13,607	8,766	+4,841	No	-$86	07-10 10:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-08 09:15 UTC	16	$582	733	0	+733	Down	+$3	09-08 09:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 12:00 UTC	10	$550	855	0	+855	Down	-$199	07-28 12:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	4	$540	1,173	1,173	+0	Up	-$60	09-09 19:23
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$533	351	351	+0	Yes	+$67	04-12 19:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 09:00 UTC	26	$525	784	0	+784	Up	-$326	07-29 09:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-28 12:15 UTC	5	$500	905	0	+905	Down	-$315	07-28 12:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 07:15 UTC	8	$500	746	0	+746	Down	-$32	07-27 07:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 21:00 UTC	8	$493	321	253	+67	Up	+$13	08-26 21:13
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	9	$480	741	0	+741	No	-$480	04-12 18:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf4d7e4…
10-29 16:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5544b4…
10-29 15:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	21	44¢	$9	0xeb232a…
10-29 15:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0xdf7f4a…
10-29 15:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0x7be450…
10-29 15:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x31c676…
10-29 15:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6177ce…
10-29 15:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x546c79…
10-29 15:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdd373d…
10-29 05:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x68dbda…
10-29 02:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x80e614…
10-29 02:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x959989…
10-29 02:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x11ecdf…
10-29 02:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x865709…
10-29 01:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	46	49¢	$22	0x3d8f81…
10-29 01:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xcd57e3…
10-29 01:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc3698d…
10-29 01:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x5d59cd…
10-29 01:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7164c2…
10-28 13:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd6e5e6…
10-28 13:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xc2a646…
10-28 13:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x37b987…
10-28 12:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x242955…
10-28 12:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	49	53¢	$26	0x7425b2…
10-28 12:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0xe8f1e5…
10-28 12:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xff7a60…
10-28 12:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x6d3841…
10-28 12:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x85f7dc…
10-28 08:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x063f44…
10-26 14:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0e9b2c…
10-26 13:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x42460c…
10-25 20:55:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,755	1¢	$11	0x87110f…
10-25 18:04:00	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,755	57¢	$1,000	0x3fc226…
10-24 23:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0xc42404…
10-24 23:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x83251f…
10-24 23:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xab1343…
10-24 15:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	33	54¢	$18	0xdc5ae9…
10-24 15:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xb67651…
10-24 15:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x071c19…
10-24 15:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xf7dd57…
10-24 14:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x2c26fe…
10-23 23:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x025775…
10-23 22:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x5adccc…
10-22 14:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	78	52¢	$40	0x4aef56…
10-22 09:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0xd46cbc…
10-22 09:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	37	57¢	$21	0x860e71…
10-22 09:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x0d3d26…
10-22 08:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x7b3dca…
10-22 08:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x318901…
10-22 08:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	56¢	$21	0xc89c51…
10-22 08:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0x768541…
10-22 08:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0xa09778…
10-22 07:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0x9745f7…
10-22 07:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x87c0a5…
10-22 07:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	35	70¢	$25	0xb343b6…
10-22 07:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x4a0438…
10-22 07:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	52¢	$17	0x6e68be…
10-22 07:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0xb4cede…
10-22 07:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x769a96…
10-22 07:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x62dea7…
10-22 07:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xe6f516…
10-22 07:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xc0c3b8…
10-22 07:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x00f940…
10-22 03:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x253836…
10-22 03:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x6eb7fe…
10-22 03:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	51¢	$16	0xfa9155…
10-22 03:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x66a987…
10-22 02:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x6af6b7…
10-22 02:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0xa707f0…
10-22 02:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x1b0623…
10-22 02:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0xcf9fcc…
10-22 02:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	435	54¢	$233	0x812974…
10-22 02:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	195	55¢	$106	0xbf074b…
10-22 02:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	81	52¢	$42	0x6a177f…
10-22 02:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0xf9b3eb…
10-22 02:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x6b67e4…
10-22 01:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x2e62b9…
10-21 23:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0xe104cf…
10-21 23:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0xba9d44…
10-21 15:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xc02092…
10-21 14:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x81c0ef…
10-21 14:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0xe52fae…
10-20 21:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xbbb436…
10-20 21:24:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x1dcdbf…
10-20 15:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xd743e9…
10-20 15:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x5f1768…
10-20 14:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	44	59¢	$26	0x0c52b3…
10-20 14:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xb433fe…
10-20 14:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x84af3c…
10-20 14:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x124d61…
10-20 08:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x8b95ec…
10-20 08:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xce6075…
10-19 14:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x14d5d9…
10-19 10:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x3bf620…
10-19 01:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	73	51¢	$37	0xcfb4c0…
10-19 01:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	34	53¢	$18	0xb80e36…
10-19 01:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0xeffa22…
10-19 01:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xeb66ab…
10-19 01:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xfb96e3…
10-19 01:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x999524…