Agitated-Alfalfa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.77K

Unrealized P&L

+$240

Hit rate

91.7%

Resolved

145

Trades

753

lifetime

Volume

$50.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

$2.06K

9 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-27 23:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Politics

84% 71% +$1,484

Other

15% 84% +$361

Crypto

1% 86% -$75

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+1,737	$1,353	94¢	$1.6K	+$289	10-26 07:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+516	$287	54¢	$276	-$11	10-27 08:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+299	$163	38¢	$112	-$51	10-27 08:11
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+26	$11	76¢	$20	+$9	09-25 06:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+10	$8	82¢	$8	$0	10-25 09:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+1	$0	97¢	$1	+$1	10-27 23:42
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	10-14 06:54
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	10-02 20:24
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+1	-$2	86¢	$1	+$3	10-21 06:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	17	$4.6K	3,662	1,925	+1,737	open	—	10-26 07:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	28	$3.5K	3,303	3,004	+299	open	—	10-27 08:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	15	$2.6K	1,801	1,003	+798	No	+$103	09-30 11:29
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 18	3	$2.5K	1,282	1,282	+0	Yes	+$60	10-18 04:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	7	$2.3K	1,366	986	+380	Yes	+$30	10-22 00:23
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	20	$2.2K	1,665	1,665	+0	Yes	+$372	08-14 20:57
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?	7	$1.1K	558	558	+0	No	+$45	09-18 03:23
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	7	$1.0K	1,121	0	+1,121	Yes	+$74	10-21 10:05
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	18	$1.0K	567	567	+0	No	+$47	06-24 06:26
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	24	$1.0K	609	609	+0	No	+$60	07-23 06:08
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	9	$944	513	513	+0	Yes	+$54	06-17 08:54
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	18	$901	655	655	+0	No	-$39	08-21 08:11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	4	$837	446	446	+0	open	—	10-27 08:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	3	$801	441	441	+0	Yes	+$33	09-22 10:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	5	$776	416	416	+0	No	+$56	07-04 02:08
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	16	$765	457	357	+100	No	+$43	06-30 04:41
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 15?	3	$750	388	388	+0	No	+$24	09-21 23:40
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	6	$711	806	290	+516	open	—	10-27 08:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	12	$675	452	452	+0	No	+$210	06-26 22:13
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	4	$652	358	358	+0	Yes	+$56	07-30 10:57
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	6	$618	320	320	+0	No	+$4	07-07 03:38
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	2	$610	407	407	+0	open	—	08-28 05:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	4	$601	496	133	+363	No	+$10	09-07 03:39
iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	3	$600	321	321	+0	No	+$10	08-17 01:00
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	11	$591	318	318	+0	No	+$13	06-11 02:58
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	7	$583	306	306	+0	No	+$16	04-25 06:13
Iran leadership change by May 31?	14	$571	301	301	+0	No	+$7	05-25 07:59
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	10	$557	295	295	+0	No	+$31	06-13 04:22
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	15	$494	497	75	+422	No	+$38	05-31 04:55
Iran leadership change by April 30?	6	$493	254	254	+0	No	+$10	04-29 08:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:42:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x17fefd…
10-27 08:11:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	41¢	$12	0x0bee91…
10-27 08:10:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	508	59¢	$300	0xd5dd20…
10-27 08:08:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	340	98¢	$333	0x2276aa…
10-26 19:49:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	184	38¢	$70	0xa3108a…
10-26 10:26:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	87	38¢	$33	0x99aecd…
10-26 09:02:06	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	80	68¢	$54	0x79726d…
10-26 07:13:57	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x60132d…
10-26 07:10:24	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xc8c523…
10-26 07:09:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	113	89¢	$101	0xa972f2…
10-26 04:27:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0x54a6f9…
10-25 20:03:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x199150…
10-25 20:02:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	850	35¢	$297	0x623d91…
10-25 09:40:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc87ce7…
10-24 16:01:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	120	87¢	$104	0xb0c059…
10-24 09:58:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,200	85¢	$1,020	0x9693cc…
10-23 23:28:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xe31c63…
10-23 10:51:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	146	43¢	$63	0x5ede5e…
10-23 10:22:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x9b98de…
10-23 01:45:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0xa7aafd…
10-23 01:43:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x64c96a…
10-23 01:42:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	120	43¢	$52	0x069dae…
10-22 04:01:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x9bccd3…
10-22 00:26:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	41¢	$20	0x140f29…
10-22 00:23:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x8e4f64…
10-21 10:05:54	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x041d1f…
10-21 09:54:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x5a181d…
10-21 08:32:42	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x002b90…
10-21 08:07:09	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	318	94¢	$300	0x989211…
10-21 08:06:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	306	98¢	$300	0x304cff…
10-21 08:05:23	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	531	94¢	$500	0xc98601…
10-21 08:04:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	510	98¢	$501	0x6eda5a…
10-21 07:26:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	94	47¢	$44	0x3a8530…
10-21 06:36:33	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x98aa5d…
10-21 03:10:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x7529e6…
10-21 02:40:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x849283…
10-21 02:39:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x673669…
10-18 17:32:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xe7a962…
10-18 05:57:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	1,316	96¢	$1,270	0xe07eba…
10-18 04:34:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	1,282	99¢	$1,269	0xa26abc…
10-15 08:19:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 18	Yes	BUY	904	94¢	$850	0x8fe4aa…
10-15 07:44:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	SELL	1,000	85¢	$850	0x8ae941…
10-15 03:31:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 18	Yes	BUY	378	95¢	$359	0x5c7967…
10-15 03:29:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	SELL	422	85¢	$359	0x2449ae…
10-14 09:42:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xbdc849…
10-14 09:38:52	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x2326b0…
10-14 09:22:26	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	243	91¢	$220	0xedb318…
10-14 09:21:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	230	99¢	$227	0x6370d1…
10-14 06:54:08	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xba5a90…
10-14 06:52:14	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x702df5…
10-10 08:11:52	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x5cd177…
10-09 06:33:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	120	77¢	$92	0x245db6…
10-07 07:01:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	116	91¢	$106	0x3b1111…
10-06 08:03:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x57db7a…
10-02 20:24:42	Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7ca249…
10-02 06:20:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x154bc8…
10-01 10:57:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	370	81¢	$300	0x2ceae9…
10-01 07:19:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x9eb0be…
09-30 11:52:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x770466…
09-30 11:50:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x96557d…
09-30 11:30:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0xe2af21…
09-30 11:29:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	204	98¢	$201	0xdc65c0…
09-30 11:10:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	380	79¢	$300	0xe29621…
09-30 11:08:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0xb3ee78…
09-30 11:07:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	508	98¢	$500	0x79d00c…
09-29 07:17:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x9fece1…
09-29 07:14:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x1831ea…
09-29 07:07:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 07:05 UTC	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x82a642…
09-29 07:01:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xdb530f…
09-29 06:58:29	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xa32d07…
09-29 06:33:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x3148f4…
09-29 02:57:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 02:55 UTC	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x24cd2d…
09-28 12:52:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x174f29…
09-26 10:29:00	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xab041b…
09-26 02:55:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	830	96¢	$800	0xdddc59…
09-26 02:55:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	290	73¢	$212	0xec9029…
09-26 02:54:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	297	67¢	$199	0xb5e688…
09-26 02:54:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	340	83¢	$282	0x4b741c…
09-26 02:48:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 02:45 UTC	Up	SELL	29	35¢	$10	0x6be2a7…
09-26 02:45:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x5a46dd…
09-26 02:45:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xa5d77d…
09-26 02:39:33	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xdc0202…
09-25 22:57:51	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x855d18…
09-25 22:23:42	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x84ec26…
09-25 21:30:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	69¢	$207	0xed29e9…
09-25 06:55:47	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xd62471…
09-25 06:51:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x2493dc…
09-24 18:58:23	Will USD be less than 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x0561f0…
09-23 17:49:35	Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0xcb001e…
09-23 10:16:32	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	55	81¢	$45	0x4dc722…
09-23 07:37:29	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x9e4a8f…
09-23 06:24:44	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x534e20…
09-23 06:16:58	Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30?	No	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0xb07883…
09-22 13:13:40	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xacb9cb…
09-22 10:36:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xc72937…
09-22 10:36:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	SELL	141	96¢	$135	0x3edc76…
09-22 05:09:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	77	90¢	$69	0x4839f8…
09-22 04:58:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	91¢	$74	0x75d19c…
09-22 04:57:06	saudi airspace closed by october 31 2026	No	SELL	82	91¢	$74	0x291c8e…
09-22 04:56:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	90¢	$104	0xede8c1…