Insistent-Circumstance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$2.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$141

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 06-15 12:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

40% — —

Other

35% 0% —

Sports

25% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	-90	$-84	94¢	$-85	$-0	06-13 12:07
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+53	$50	94¢	$50	+$0	06-15 16:21
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+23	$7	29¢	$7	$-1	05-31 13:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$357	346	346	+0	open	—	06-14 15:07
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	13	$319	174	174	+0	No	+$0	04-22 00:22
Will Alberta join the US?	5	$126	229	229	+0	open	—	06-05 10:27
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$121	138	138	+0	open	—	04-26 20:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$110	111	111	+0	open	—	06-04 23:14
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	5	$104	77	77	+0	open	—	06-09 17:42
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$104	55	55	+0	open	—	06-08 19:42
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$100	51	51	+0	No	+$0	04-09 06:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	6	$96	62	62	+0	open	—	05-30 04:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$94	51	51	+0	open	—	05-28 17:44
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	05-28 05:02
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$88	77	77	+0	open	—	05-29 02:32
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$84	0	90	-90	open	—	06-13 12:07
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$84	90	90	+0	open	—	03-29 13:08
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$79	78	78	+0	open	—	05-30 15:11
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	7	$70	124	101	+23	open	—	05-31 13:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	5	$65	71	71	+0	open	—	05-17 13:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	11	$58	276	276	+0	open	—	04-21 01:15
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	3	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	06-06 22:40
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$52	27	27	+0	open	—	04-27 01:31
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	1	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	06-15 16:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$45	180	180	+0	open	—	06-10 02:21
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	5	$42	163	163	+0	open	—	04-24 23:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	05-14 14:32
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	04-18 00:16
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	4	$38	49	49	+0	open	—	06-15 12:46
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$21	312	312	+0	No	+$0	04-25 08:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$17	163	163	+0	open	—	04-19 11:33
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	2	$13	164	164	+0	open	—	06-05 20:46
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	5	$6	140	140	+0	open	—	05-14 22:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 16:21:43	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xf882e9…
06-15 12:46:45	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x0179d3…
06-15 09:58:37	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xa54571…
06-14 15:07:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	58	50¢	$29	0x153a9b…
06-14 15:07:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	49	50¢	$24	0xb9f84f…
06-14 13:46:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	107	49¢	$52	0x30c3e8…
06-14 05:54:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	94	56¢	$53	0xdc3858…
06-14 05:52:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	94	56¢	$53	0xf8e5e0…
06-14 00:30:24	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0xe61918…
06-13 23:11:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0xd4502e…
06-13 20:49:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	80	55¢	$44	0x5eed80…
06-13 16:57:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	80	58¢	$46	0x8d6b01…
06-13 12:07:45	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	94¢	$46	0x8680e7…
06-13 05:49:48	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	94¢	$38	0x0f8f13…
06-12 13:47:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	86	2¢	$1	0xa61fae…
06-12 13:47:09	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	2¢	$0	0xcc6d7d…
06-12 13:47:09	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0x517a15…
06-12 10:00:01	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$2	0x87221f…
06-10 02:21:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	180	12¢	$22	0x865349…
06-09 23:42:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	180	13¢	$23	0xb91ba4…
06-09 17:42:15	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	68¢	$23	0xe8bdf2…
06-09 17:42:13	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	68¢	$29	0x224ac1…
06-09 16:23:09	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x2e92e8…
06-09 16:22:30	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x4d61b4…
06-09 16:22:30	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x0655ee…
06-09 02:04:28	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0xc2a44a…
06-09 02:04:28	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0x7e68a2…
06-09 02:04:28	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x3dd65b…
06-08 21:44:48	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	135	1¢	$2	0x5d8ba7…
06-08 19:42:45	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0xba3fc3…
06-08 15:38:15	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x37299b…
06-06 22:40:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xb2fbb1…
06-06 16:51:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x27d58f…
06-06 16:51:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x12ebbb…
06-05 20:46:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	164	4¢	$6	0x4c87a6…
06-05 18:08:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	164	4¢	$7	0xb7b9bc…
06-05 10:27:16	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0xb14b6e…
06-05 10:27:16	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	145	5¢	$8	0x2eb0b9…
06-05 09:19:49	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	172	5¢	$8	0xc63bd3…
06-04 23:14:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	50¢	$26	0xb3d0b4…
06-04 23:14:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x3dd09b…
06-04 23:14:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	50¢	$22	0x89f35a…
06-04 21:41:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	49¢	$54	0x1fb4a4…
06-04 17:43:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	57	96¢	$54	0x32dff4…
06-04 15:54:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0x7be5ea…
05-31 13:06:56	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	46	31¢	$14	0x4a1617…
05-31 12:30:32	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x84d416…
05-31 02:34:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	31¢	$8	0x4737e4…
05-31 02:12:54	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x0a8c39…
05-31 00:28:15	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x844ce3…
05-30 23:14:16	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0xf724b8…
05-30 19:17:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	124	31¢	$38	0xfd3f88…
05-30 15:11:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	78	50¢	$39	0x581355…
05-30 13:09:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	78	51¢	$40	0xe83fd2…
05-30 04:34:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x85ef3a…
05-30 04:34:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x7d46f6…
05-30 04:34:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x598ee3…
05-29 23:41:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0xbb8013…
05-29 23:41:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0x595f89…
05-29 23:41:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	73¢	$16	0x015d94…
05-29 14:35:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	65	43¢	$28	0xd982e4…
05-29 10:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	47	42¢	$20	0x47430e…
05-29 10:21:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	18	42¢	$8	0xd83bd0…
05-29 02:32:14	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	77	58¢	$45	0x0a3466…
05-28 21:48:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	59	56¢	$33	0xf8b49b…
05-28 21:48:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x1f2f47…
05-28 17:44:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	51	92¢	$47	0x322931…
05-28 17:43:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	51	92¢	$47	0x902865…
05-28 05:02:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0xca8435…
05-28 05:02:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x6c3d37…
05-28 05:02:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	17	86¢	$15	0x48745d…
05-28 00:43:08	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	47	91¢	$43	0xa52e88…
05-28 00:43:08	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x0a2983…
05-17 13:29:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0x0bf50b…
05-17 12:26:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0x3aa5df…
05-15 17:16:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xaed6d8…
05-15 17:16:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x935e27…
05-15 13:24:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x5ac39a…
05-14 22:24:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0xae5d78…
05-14 22:24:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0x7f0aed…
05-14 22:24:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x14b01d…
05-14 22:24:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x01beb1…
05-14 19:01:12	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$3	0xfef40b…
05-14 14:32:32	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x028666…
05-14 11:07:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xc323c1…
05-14 11:07:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x056660…
04-27 09:30:46	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	23	2¢	$1	0xc74fde…
04-27 09:30:46	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	61	2¢	$1	0x622d79…
04-27 08:25:30	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0x587df1…
04-27 08:25:30	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0x478a9a…
04-27 08:25:30	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0x37590b…
04-27 01:31:52	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0xeaa0bc…
04-26 20:24:26	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x095887…
04-26 20:05:04	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	58	88¢	$51	0x07b578…
04-26 18:20:04	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	58	87¢	$51	0x68ddc5…
04-25 08:03:36	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	160	4¢	$6	0xba6c44…
04-25 04:32:32	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	160	4¢	$7	0x4bb3f8…
04-24 23:48:06	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	144	2¢	$2	0x59e6dc…
04-24 23:46:46	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0x9f111e…
04-24 23:46:44	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	97	2¢	$1	0x335edf…