Idle-Privilege — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

19.9%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 08-21 09:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

77% 56% -$3

Crypto

20% 74% +$28

Politics

3% 33% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	5	$9.9K	9,944	3,312	+6,632	No	-$7	01-30 16:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	4	$385	200	200	+0	No	+$0	04-28 13:25
bitcoin up or down january 31 6am et	15	$308	300	100	+200	Down	-$8	01-31 11:58
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$201	105	105	+0	open	—	06-15 06:08
bitcoin up or down january 30 7am et	7	$200	100	100	+0	Down	+$0	01-30 13:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-26 15:53
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$191	100	100	+0	No	-$2	04-29 08:41
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$179	90	90	+0	No	+$0	02-14 06:53
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	2	$179	90	90	+0	No	$0	02-15 12:07
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$178	90	90	+0	No	+$0	02-11 06:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	3	$178	90	90	-0	No	+$1	05-14 11:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	3	$178	90	90	+0	No	+$1	04-27 06:00
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 540 559	2	$175	90	90	+0	No	+$1	02-11 14:10
bitcoin up or down january 31 8am et	11	$126	260	0	+260	Up	+$4	01-31 13:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	6	$106	60	60	+0	Down	+$2	04-18 08:38
bitcoin up or down january 31 9am et	9	$104	200	10	+190	Down	+$1	01-31 14:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-31 12:45 UTC	4	$104	210	0	+210	Down	+$6	01-31 12:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 12:15 UTC	1	$98	100	0	+100	Down	+$2	01-30 12:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-31 11:45 UTC	3	$98	198	2	+197	Up	+$2	01-31 11:47
will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	1	$98	100	0	+100	No	+$2	08-21 09:16
bitcoin up or down january 30 8am et	6	$95	200	0	+200	Down	+$5	01-30 13:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-31 13:00 UTC	6	$89	155	11	+144	Up	+$1	01-31 13:09
bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	4	$88	180	0	+180	Down	+$2	02-19 13:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	6	$88	180	0	+180	Down	+$2	02-11 06:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:30 UTC	4	$86	60	60	+0	Down	+$2	03-10 09:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	6	$58	100	99	+1	Down	-$1	03-26 10:55
donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 200plus	5	$53	103	33	+70	No	-$1	03-07 08:25
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	2	$50	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-01 17:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	6	$36	60	60	+0	Up	+$3	03-18 13:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-21 05:00 UTC	2	$33	80	0	+80	Up	+$7	03-21 05:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-21 09:16:37	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x6235da…
08-21 09:16:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	19	32¢	$6	0x31eea0…
08-21 09:16:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x1d8929…
08-21 09:15:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xb0d5c0…
06-15 06:08:03	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	105	96¢	$101	0xde2e1c…
06-04 02:50:28	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x45e928…
05-26 15:53:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x394b69…
05-20 04:54:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x996507…
05-14 11:56:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x159fae…
05-07 07:42:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0xc2215c…
05-03 05:00:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$89	0x7af68a…
04-29 08:41:58	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xee655b…
04-29 08:41:28	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xef30a0…
04-29 00:04:54	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x663f34…
04-28 22:54:02	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0xf6533d…
04-28 22:54:00	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0x8f9ef0…
04-28 22:53:50	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xa3599e…
04-28 19:26:18	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb9b180…
04-28 13:25:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xf64909…
04-28 13:23:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xef5d13…
04-28 13:19:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xa72c77…
04-28 13:18:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x80b259…
04-27 06:00:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x42cfcd…
04-22 16:07:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-22 16:00 UTC	Up	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0xb4935c…
04-22 16:06:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-22 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x3e32e1…
04-18 08:38:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	Down	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x024e9d…
04-18 08:37:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x62ce0f…
04-18 08:35:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xa436b5…
04-18 08:35:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	Down	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x720530…
04-18 08:35:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	Down	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0x078e87…
04-18 08:35:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-18 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x510412…
04-14 12:31:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 12:30 UTC	Down	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0x54d4e2…
04-14 12:31:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 12:30 UTC	Down	SELL	24	43¢	$10	0xb5170f…
04-14 12:31:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 12:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x6c1627…
04-14 12:31:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 12:30 UTC	Down	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x05d039…
04-14 12:30:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0xe8a017…
04-14 11:14:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x9a8f64…
04-09 11:35:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0xe42c4f…
04-02 05:38:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 05:30 UTC	Up	SELL	25	18¢	$4	0xcf3bf9…
04-02 05:38:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x516de0…
04-02 05:38:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa42c86…
03-28 14:03:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 14:00 UTC	Up	SELL	23	29¢	$7	0x93a5c1…
03-28 14:02:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 14:00 UTC	Up	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0xe0fa4c…
03-28 14:02:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0xc61249…
03-28 12:16:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 12:15 UTC	Down	SELL	30	25¢	$7	0xc96723…
03-28 12:15:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x0054ff…
03-26 10:55:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	Up	SELL	40	14¢	$6	0xa7950c…
03-26 10:54:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xf8fb60…
03-26 10:54:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	Up	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0x562003…
03-26 10:53:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xf40573…
03-26 10:51:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	Up	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0xa143c0…
03-26 10:51:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xc3a2a3…
03-26 10:32:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:30 UTC	Up	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x192d18…
03-26 10:32:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-26 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x38e2d6…
03-21 05:05:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-21 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x9a939b…
03-21 05:02:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-21 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x981895…
03-18 15:35:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 15:30 UTC	Down	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xbeb534…
03-18 15:32:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x5f8b1e…
03-18 13:19:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	Up	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0x7fbf53…
03-18 13:18:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0x9c17e9…
03-18 13:18:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x79b167…
03-18 13:18:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x32d123…
03-18 13:17:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	Up	SELL	30	36¢	$11	0x1b017a…
03-18 13:17:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xd47ac3…
03-13 11:31:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 11:30 UTC	Up	SELL	30	45¢	$13	0x47f39a…
03-13 11:31:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x4622a1…
03-10 09:46:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:45 UTC	Up	SELL	35	39¢	$14	0x1b404a…
03-10 09:46:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xd9fc60…
03-10 09:45:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xae929c…
03-10 09:45:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x6837e0…
03-10 09:41:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:30 UTC	Down	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0xd56faf…
03-10 09:41:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xbeccde…
03-10 09:31:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:30 UTC	Up	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xfa75b9…
03-10 09:30:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x6f3a7d…
03-10 09:08:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x90347a…
03-10 09:08:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	21	18¢	$4	0x0ca74c…
03-10 09:08:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x1f7d67…
03-10 09:02:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x0ce8ce…
03-07 08:25:31	donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 200plus	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x8a6f86…
03-07 07:41:51	donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 200plus	No	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x1451b5…
03-07 07:37:53	donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 200plus	Yes	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x946f40…
03-07 07:18:05	donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 200plus	No	SELL	33	26¢	$8	0x93a1f3…
03-07 06:45:45	donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 200plus	No	BUY	33	29¢	$9	0xf188f7…
02-28 15:38:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-28 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xe80229…
02-28 15:36:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-28 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x6a0c1d…
02-19 13:33:14	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Up	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xa531a1…
02-19 13:33:14	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Up	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xa240b5…
02-19 13:33:12	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Up	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xa3878c…
02-19 13:32:24	bitcoin up or down february 19 8am et	Down	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0xfcc732…
02-15 12:07:39	us strikes iran by february 15 2026	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x4f6173…
02-15 09:52:37	us strikes iran by february 15 2026	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x0e9a33…
02-14 06:53:53	us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xfe4e90…
02-13 12:05:35	us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x1d6d9c…
02-11 14:10:25	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 540 559	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x8a7049…
02-11 12:50:03	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 540 559	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0xd2da55…
02-11 06:42:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0x3edf53…
02-11 06:42:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xf88970…
02-11 06:42:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0xad0fc4…
02-11 06:42:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x8e9ee6…
02-11 06:42:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xce45b5…