Quarterly-Backpack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$67

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

249

lifetime

Volume

$474.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.90K

Open exposure

$2.21K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 18:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

64% 0% $-44,744

Other

36% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+2,684	$2,147	82¢	$2.2K	+$67	06-09 05:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$59.5K	59,593	0	+59,593	open	—	04-30 06:45
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	12	$55.0K	55,455	0	+55,455	open	—	03-06 11:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$54.9K	55,000	0	+55,000	open	—	04-30 08:06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$50.2K	50,371	0	+50,371	open	—	04-07 01:48
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$44.4K	44,602	0	+44,602	open	—	01-20 17:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$40.2K	42,415	0	+42,415	Yes	$-40,248	05-07 08:07
trump out as president by march 31	25	$33.0K	33,787	0	+33,787	open	—	03-21 11:42
maduro exiled to russia by march 31	28	$27.8K	28,264	0	+28,264	open	—	03-12 20:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$10.1K	13,600	0	+13,600	open	—	03-12 02:16
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-30 07:45
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	1	$10.0K	10,532	0	+10,532	open	—	03-12 14:11
will khamenei leave iran by december 31	6	$9.9K	14,174	0	+14,174	open	—	02-28 11:33
maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	15	$9.8K	9,904	0	+9,904	open	—	03-12 13:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	32	$9.0K	9,060	0	+9,060	open	—	04-30 15:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$8.9K	8,970	0	+8,970	open	—	04-30 09:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$7.4K	4,700	4,700	+0	open	—	01-17 14:02
will the us invade iran by march 31	14	$5.0K	2,910	2,898	+12	open	—	03-21 13:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$4.5K	5,691	0	+5,691	Yes	$-4,496	03-12 02:29
iran strike on israel by february 28	2	$2.6K	5,082	0	+5,082	open	—	02-28 11:12
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?	10	$2.3K	2,490	0	+2,490	open	—	02-28 14:29
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	1	$2.3K	2,310	0	+2,310	open	—	02-09 13:31
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	11	$2.1K	2,684	0	+2,684	open	—	06-09 05:07
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	4	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-30 13:26
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	21	$1.8K	2,760	0	+2,760	open	—	06-09 18:30
Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?	5	$1.7K	1,929	0	+1,929	open	—	02-28 11:31
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 747 434	1	$1.4K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	03-12 02:20
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	3	$1.3K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	03-09 14:05
will donald trump say oil during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday 738	2	$1.2K	1,509	0	+1,509	open	—	01-03 15:40
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	7	$1.0K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	03-12 22:05
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 851	1	$999	1,110	0	+1,110	open	—	03-12 02:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 18:30:57	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x591e56…
06-09 18:20:58	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	58	65¢	$38	0x2142e0…
06-09 10:59:33	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	286	65¢	$186	0x513305…
06-09 07:10:03	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	114	65¢	$74	0xbf789a…
06-09 05:07:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x787ce9…
06-09 03:55:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xaf7066…
06-09 02:13:51	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0x93f19f…
06-09 02:13:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	57	65¢	$37	0x5027b3…
06-09 00:00:33	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	19	65¢	$13	0x5823e4…
06-08 21:42:36	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xcb4939…
06-08 21:15:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$3	0x024ea6…
06-08 21:03:54	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x700b5c…
06-08 17:05:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x547043…
06-08 16:03:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6186cc…
06-08 15:34:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x421b15…
06-08 14:37:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	80¢	$360	0x7cd1dd…
06-08 11:46:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	80¢	$360	0xebf9cb…
06-08 11:10:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x8dffe5…
06-08 11:07:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb0d1ce…
06-08 09:12:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,115	80¢	$892	0x967d00…
06-08 03:20:36	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	34	65¢	$22	0xbc57eb…
06-07 21:03:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	250	65¢	$162	0x1d735a…
06-07 10:32:33	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	855	65¢	$556	0x569301…
06-07 09:56:01	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x6cbf48…
06-07 09:55:00	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x18468f…
06-07 06:49:33	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x782ca5…
06-07 06:47:19	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0xc64d7f…
06-07 06:30:21	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	149	65¢	$97	0x65b866…
06-06 15:42:45	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0x41c3d5…
06-05 15:10:54	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xb8c95d…
06-05 11:55:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	57	65¢	$37	0x36265c…
06-05 08:58:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	282	65¢	$183	0x1b5de9…
05-07 08:07:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20,840	96¢	$20,006	0x634e3f…
04-30 15:11:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3662ff…
04-30 14:52:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xfa5799…
04-30 14:49:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x24ee3e…
04-30 13:26:54	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	720	100¢	$719	0x09b788…
04-30 13:19:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x325f63…
04-30 13:17:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	975	100¢	$974	0x3d46cf…
04-30 13:12:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xdebdf5…
04-30 12:00:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x85f66f…
04-30 10:35:36	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa892c3…
04-30 10:26:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe2cda1…
04-30 09:47:04	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	1,480	100¢	$1,474	0x53d751…
04-30 08:53:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf02501…
04-30 08:52:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6c6aca…
04-30 08:49:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd4a142…
04-30 08:45:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x02d66c…
04-30 08:39:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x46a983…
04-30 08:35:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6b9646…
04-30 08:30:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe80447…
04-30 08:29:14	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	3,300	100¢	$3,290	0x818cce…
04-30 08:27:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4f4336…
04-30 08:24:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x178c2a…
04-30 08:20:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7442a0…
04-30 08:06:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xdd905f…
04-30 07:59:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	45,000	100¢	$44,955	0x5be68a…
04-30 07:49:12	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	4,170	100¢	$4,160	0x4534ba…
04-30 07:45:54	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x2371cd…
04-30 07:27:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc1e069…
04-30 07:25:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc18108…
04-30 07:20:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x317df6…
04-30 07:05:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xaa91b1…
04-30 07:04:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0x03b1c3…
04-30 07:04:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	169	100¢	$168	0x265a02…
04-30 07:04:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0x8b3d1e…
04-30 07:04:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0x7f0801…
04-30 07:04:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x392e49…
04-30 07:04:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0xefebb9…
04-30 07:04:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	156	100¢	$155	0x8973c4…
04-30 07:04:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$207	0xb61616…
04-30 07:04:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xe2b5c1…
04-30 07:02:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	72	100¢	$71	0x9e6755…
04-30 06:58:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xc0beb2…
04-30 06:51:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x5d202d…
04-30 06:45:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,483	100¢	$4,474	0xca42b1…
04-30 05:47:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,500	93¢	$3,255	0xf72308…
04-30 02:46:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x9363d5…
04-30 02:42:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$10	0xb5caab…
04-30 02:42:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18,045	94¢	$16,958	0xbad43c…
04-27 10:20:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55,110	100¢	$55,000	0x311807…
04-08 00:58:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,934	0x9a45dc…
04-07 01:48:39	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50,371	100¢	$50,220	0x4dc500…
03-21 13:05:29	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x90e545…
03-21 13:04:45	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	2,794	86¢	$2,400	0xf1bcfb…
03-21 13:04:05	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	25	86¢	$21	0x570258…
03-21 12:51:35	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x8ba3b4…
03-21 12:25:35	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0x966ff6…
03-21 12:21:13	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x6f12e1…
03-21 12:18:03	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	1	86¢	$0	0x3fa0ad…
03-21 12:15:43	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	45	86¢	$39	0x4c7956…
03-21 11:42:57	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x4841fa…
03-12 22:05:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	502	85¢	$427	0x929afb…
03-12 20:53:59	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	28	85¢	$24	0x8cfbf2…
03-12 20:40:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$43	0xf64f88…
03-12 20:40:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x76414e…
03-12 20:40:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$43	0x3b33e7…
03-12 20:40:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	470	85¢	$400	0x1711fd…
03-12 20:40:05	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x08b699…
03-12 20:34:15	maduro exiled to russia by march 31	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x2bf784…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	27	$8.60M	11,460	06-04 20:07
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	27	$13.3K	5,506	04-16 23:32
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	26	$484.3K	6,897	06-09 12:36
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	26	$110.7K	503	06-07 21:34
Opulent-Right 0xb100…6461	25	$736.1K	1,488	05-08 19:26
Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8	25	$654.7K	1,808	06-04 20:07
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	24	$19.0K	3,941	05-06 08:34
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	24	$2.26K	1,305	05-08 18:33