Quarterly-Backpack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$63.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$3.25K

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,202

lifetime

Volume

$1.14M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$952

Open exposure

$185.9K

21 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 02:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

50% 100% +$52,330

Politics

48% 89% +$10,124

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$701

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No		+47,223	$45,470	98¢	$46.3K	+$832	10-13 00:15
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No		+29,070	$25,000	97¢	$28.3K	+$3,314	06-27 06:20
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No		+26,181	$23,732	96¢	$25.2K	+$1,441	10-13 23:45
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		+23,765	$21,398	98¢	$23.3K	+$1,951	07-09 15:40
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No		+19,987	$17,269	61¢	$12.2K	-$5,087	07-18 16:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No		+10,000	$8,290	86¢	$8.6K	+$260	08-23 09:16
Trump out as President before 2027?	No		+7,000	$5,880	96¢	$6.7K	+$829	04-29 16:36
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No		+7,063	$5,519	84¢	$6.0K	+$449	09-06 15:16
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No		+5,714	$5,314	94¢	$5.4K	+$86	10-14 11:15
New pandemic in 2026?	No		+4,902	$4,608	97¢	$4.7K	+$125	10-07 02:23
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No		+5,000	$3,250	86¢	$4.3K	+$1,075	06-12 04:30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No		+6,594	$5,052	60¢	$4.0K	-$1,062	09-04 05:28
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes		+6,795	$5,707	57¢	$3.9K	-$1,800	10-26 02:21
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No		+3,438	$2,987	90¢	$3.1K	+$90	10-12 01:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No		+2,880	$2,506	97¢	$2.8K	+$284	06-16 05:00
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No		+1,108	$975	89¢	$986	+$11	07-22 10:26
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes		-19,987	-$200	0¢	$-90	+$110	08-26 16:57
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	—	-19,987	-$20	0¢	$-20	$0	08-11 05:05
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	08-29 10:49
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No		+0	-$199	92¢	$0	+$199	09-23 19:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		+0	-$145	82¢	$0	+$145	07-22 13:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	60	$60.5K	91,448	0	+91,448	Yes	+$30,946	09-25 08:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$59.5K	59,593	0	+59,593	No	+$119	04-30 06:45
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	25	$56.6K	89,422	0	+89,422	Yes	+$32,782	05-13 20:57
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	12	$55.0K	55,455	0	+55,455	No	+$427	03-06 11:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$54.9K	55,000	0	+55,000	No	+$55	04-30 08:06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$50.2K	50,371	0	+50,371	Yes	+$151	04-07 01:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	46	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$150	06-17 12:29
Plague pandemic in 2026?	13	$45.5K	47,223	0	+47,223	open	—	10-13 00:15
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$44.4K	44,602	0	+44,602	No	+$203	01-20 17:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$40.2K	42,415	0	+42,415	Yes	-$40,248	05-07 08:07
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	5	$38.6K	38,683	0	+38,683	No	+$83	10-09 09:11
trump out as president by march 31	25	$33.0K	33,787	0	+33,787	No	+$788	03-21 11:42
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	5	$30.1K	30,128	0	+30,128	No	+$35	10-09 09:14
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	12	$29.4K	27,863	4,098	+23,765	open	—	07-09 15:40
maduro exiled to russia by march 31	28	$27.8K	28,264	0	+28,264	No	+$490	03-12 20:34
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	1	$25.0K	29,070	0	+29,070	open	—	06-27 06:20
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$25.0K	25,000	0	+25,000	Yes	+$25	10-26 02:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	110	$24.9K	46,977	46,977	+0	open	—	07-18 23:30
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	19	$23.7K	26,181	0	+26,181	open	—	10-13 23:45
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	79	$21.1K	25,852	730	+25,122	Yes	+$4,446	09-25 11:40
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	59	$20.0K	29,594	0	+29,594	No	+$9,612	07-09 13:05
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	1	$17.3K	19,987	0	+19,987	open	—	07-18 16:36
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	9	$13.2K	13,798	0	+13,798	No	+$621	08-29 12:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$11.5K	13,840	0	+13,840	No	+$2,298	07-22 12:05
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	3	$11.5K	15,423	0	+15,423	No	+$3,887	07-23 13:55
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	38	$11.0K	11,608	0	+11,608	Yes	+$591	07-01 07:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	40	$10.1K	7,250	7,250	+0	open	—	07-22 13:04
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$10.1K	13,600	0	+13,600	No	+$3,536	03-12 02:16
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$10	04-30 07:45
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	1	$10.0K	10,532	0	+10,532	No	+$574	03-12 14:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 02:21:06	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x795575…
10-26 02:19:54	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3,074	100¢	$3,068	0xd8baed…
10-26 02:08:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25,000	100¢	$24,975	0x54b7cb…
10-24 17:37:15	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7faa23…
10-21 08:17:44	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,020	0¢	$1	0xabf24f…
10-18 05:53:15	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,060	0¢	$1	0xd1c0f9…
10-16 14:46:27	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,000	0¢	$3	0xa47335…
10-14 11:15:53	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	368	93¢	$342	0x1e1b74…
10-14 11:10:05	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x08275f…
10-14 10:33:38	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	257	93¢	$239	0x415fd1…
10-14 08:09:25	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,037	93¢	$964	0x7ffce1…
10-14 01:03:21	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	129	93¢	$120	0x2a56f8…
10-13 23:45:30	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	715	93¢	$666	0x5bc300…
10-13 21:47:04	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	111	93¢	$103	0x31d4d3…
10-13 18:12:16	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	357	93¢	$332	0xb93006…
10-13 14:45:01	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	143	93¢	$133	0x8cd705…
10-13 13:14:16	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$51	0x27d7af…
10-13 11:57:53	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0xca3e66…
10-13 10:58:16	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	206	93¢	$191	0x230df6…
10-13 06:26:22	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xa3bdcc…
10-13 05:49:39	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	714	93¢	$664	0x946550…
10-13 05:34:48	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x4ac7f1…
10-13 05:30:27	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$10	0xccf979…
10-13 05:05:45	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x083919…
10-13 04:37:44	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x4ec15f…
10-13 04:37:29	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0xe02988…
10-13 03:14:36	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	68	93¢	$63	0xaa0a68…
10-13 01:51:26	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	231	93¢	$215	0xcac656…
10-13 00:15:36	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x0c1939…
10-13 00:14:47	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1,533	98¢	$1,495	0x028f79…
10-12 18:03:51	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xcccd54…
10-12 15:27:30	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xc5bba3…
10-12 14:53:57	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	140	96¢	$134	0x348463…
10-12 14:53:45	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x32c98d…
10-12 03:46:12	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x6649e3…
10-12 03:42:09	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xdee34d…
10-12 02:13:00	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	900	96¢	$861	0x07c974…
10-12 02:12:36	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xfb5a96…
10-12 01:47:53	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,438	87¢	$2,987	0xdb5c41…
10-12 01:18:50	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	85	96¢	$81	0x00aa58…
10-12 01:18:23	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	757	96¢	$724	0x93b476…
10-11 06:33:14	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8b193c…
10-11 06:30:21	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcc8fb0…
10-11 06:30:00	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	10,032	98¢	$9,787	0x590b8d…
10-11 06:21:20	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	1,772	96¢	$1,693	0x5c2538…
10-09 16:55:52	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x3525c3…
10-09 16:54:10	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x02d044…
10-09 16:44:53	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x631c2e…
10-09 09:14:00	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0xaad680…
10-09 09:11:51	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,996	0xd74e50…
10-09 09:11:37	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xe97cd6…
10-09 09:11:10	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x9957d5…
10-09 09:10:31	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x3ca467…
10-09 09:09:12	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0x1117ad…
10-09 09:09:04	Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x72f5da…
10-09 09:09:01	Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xde6f39…
10-09 09:08:39	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	9,683	100¢	$9,674	0x99524b…
10-09 09:07:51	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,941	0x69d64d…
10-09 09:07:18	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x8ce36a…
10-09 09:06:58	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2,128	100¢	$2,125	0x0c1aba…
10-09 09:05:18	Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	Yes	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xb9351c…
10-09 09:05:03	Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x8ba654…
10-09 08:57:00	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xfa6bf7…
10-08 19:42:05	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x82a124…
10-08 19:32:48	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xa9a207…
10-07 15:52:35	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	95¢	$9,490	0x5eb5e1…
10-07 14:23:04	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	680	92¢	$626	0xc2693a…
10-07 14:21:34	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0x6b87ac…
10-07 14:21:32	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	3,465	90¢	$3,135	0x8b8de5…
10-07 14:18:17	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	7,787	96¢	$7,473	0x8d15bf…
10-07 05:51:27	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	247	90¢	$222	0x101d15…
10-07 05:34:20	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	9,753	90¢	$8,778	0x20d9a1…
10-07 05:10:02	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	95¢	$1,425	0xbe5c70…
10-07 05:09:21	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1,825	96¢	$1,752	0x17b3e5…
10-07 05:09:15	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	2,175	96¢	$2,088	0x2d616f…
10-07 02:23:30	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	4,902	94¢	$4,608	0x75cb68…
10-07 01:47:08	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	65	97¢	$63	0xc03cfc…
10-07 01:35:39	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	457	97¢	$441	0x13aedc…
10-07 01:33:57	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	11,618	97¢	$11,230	0x2e6268…
10-07 01:11:30	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x461fda…
10-07 01:11:14	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	7,471	89¢	$6,627	0xfcd741…
10-03 19:11:22	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	0¢	$0	0xd33096…
10-03 19:10:18	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	0¢	$0	0xdd0f0f…
10-03 18:51:06	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x650aae…
10-03 18:46:20	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc3779f…
10-03 14:27:00	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,069	0¢	$1	0xff4f0f…
10-03 11:37:41	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf5a305…
10-02 20:08:42	Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,106	0¢	$1	0x95bbd5…
10-02 20:08:29	Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,929	0¢	$3	0x53fd14…
10-02 20:08:15	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,623	0¢	$3	0x4b6aff…
10-02 20:07:56	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	710	0¢	$1	0x1791c7…
10-02 19:39:50	Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x05ec14…
10-02 19:39:30	Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0xffbd1f…
10-02 19:39:15	Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0xf6e821…
10-02 19:38:20	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0xd73de5…
10-02 19:19:44	Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	0¢	$4	0xa347c8…
10-02 19:19:23	Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,058	0¢	$3	0xadbcae…
10-02 19:18:53	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x040c99…
10-02 19:18:30	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0xecdbc0…
10-02 19:18:15	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,278	0¢	$4	0x5a50c6…