Quarterly-Backpack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$3.14K

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

577

lifetime

Volume

$654.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.13K

Open exposure

$28.6K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 13:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% 0% $-44,744

Other

46% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+13,840	$11,542	99¢	$13.7K	+$2,166	07-22 12:05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5,184	$4,197	86¢	$4.5K	+$266	07-01 13:55
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-4,098	$-4,008	96¢	$-3949	+$59	07-09 15:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+2,880	$2,506	86¢	$2.5K	$-14	06-16 05:00
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	+2,762	$1,805	82¢	$2.3K	+$460	06-18 11:47
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+1,108	$975	85¢	$941	$-33	07-22 10:26
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	+1,013	$659	74¢	$745	+$86	07-01 11:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+0	$-145	70¢	$0	+$145	07-22 13:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$59.5K	59,593	0	+59,593	open	—	04-30 06:45
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	12	$55.0K	55,455	0	+55,455	open	—	03-06 11:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$54.9K	55,000	0	+55,000	open	—	04-30 08:06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$50.2K	50,371	0	+50,371	open	—	04-07 01:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	46	$49.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	06-17 12:29
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$44.4K	44,602	0	+44,602	open	—	01-20 17:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$40.2K	42,415	0	+42,415	Yes	$-40,248	05-07 08:07
trump out as president by march 31	25	$33.0K	33,787	0	+33,787	open	—	03-21 11:42
maduro exiled to russia by march 31	28	$27.8K	28,264	0	+28,264	open	—	03-12 20:34
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	1	$25.0K	29,070	0	+29,070	open	—	06-27 06:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	110	$24.9K	46,977	46,977	+0	open	—	07-18 23:30
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	59	$20.0K	29,594	0	+29,594	open	—	07-09 13:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$11.5K	13,840	0	+13,840	open	—	07-22 12:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	40	$10.1K	7,250	7,250	+0	open	—	07-22 13:04
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$10.1K	13,600	0	+13,600	open	—	03-12 02:16
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-30 07:45
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	1	$10.0K	10,532	0	+10,532	open	—	03-12 14:11
will khamenei leave iran by december 31	6	$9.9K	14,174	0	+14,174	open	—	02-28 11:33
maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	15	$9.8K	9,904	0	+9,904	open	—	03-12 13:03
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	4	$9.6K	10,154	0	+10,154	open	—	06-19 17:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	32	$9.0K	9,060	0	+9,060	open	—	04-30 15:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$8.9K	8,970	0	+8,970	open	—	04-30 09:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$7.4K	4,700	4,700	+0	open	—	01-17 14:02
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	1	$5.7K	5,997	0	+5,997	open	—	07-22 10:59
will the us invade iran by march 31	14	$5.0K	2,910	2,898	+12	open	—	03-21 13:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$4.5K	5,691	0	+5,691	Yes	$-4,496	03-12 02:29
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	16	$4.2K	5,184	0	+5,184	open	—	07-01 13:55
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	10	$4.0K	0	4,098	-4,098	open	—	07-09 15:40
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	25	$3.2K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-12 04:30
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$3.2K	3,805	0	+3,805	open	—	06-12 23:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 13:04:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	711	71¢	$505	0xb79e66…
07-22 13:04:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xfdd4ae…
07-22 13:04:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0xfa1f43…
07-22 13:04:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xaeec51…
07-22 13:04:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	78	71¢	$55	0xa5851b…
07-22 13:04:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	185	71¢	$132	0x92794c…
07-22 13:04:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	147	71¢	$104	0x588065…
07-22 13:04:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	71¢	$6	0x5396ef…
07-22 13:04:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	44	71¢	$31	0x252617…
07-22 13:04:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5,988	71¢	$4,251	0x97ca80…
07-22 13:04:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	49	71¢	$35	0x919415…
07-22 13:04:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x567d1b…
07-22 13:04:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x04831a…
07-22 12:05:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,112	99¢	$2,091	0x6c463b…
07-22 12:05:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd6e7a1…
07-22 12:03:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xb3a63e…
07-22 11:40:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x4f6d7f…
07-22 11:38:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	367	99¢	$363	0xc8f202…
07-22 11:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x964928…
07-22 10:59:12	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	5,997	95¢	$5,691	0xe1b7b3…
07-22 10:50:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xfe97b7…
07-22 10:49:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7,241	99¢	$7,169	0x0a0a0f…
07-22 10:33:28	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	No	BUY	995	83¢	$824	0x15fc21…
07-22 10:32:18	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	No	BUY	1,169	87¢	$1,022	0x30a6b9…
07-22 10:26:21	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	1,108	88¢	$975	0x61c50b…
07-22 10:23:12	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	Yes	BUY	567	100¢	$566	0x2e6f93…
07-21 09:55:16	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	Yes	BUY	1,000	53¢	$530	0xc4ceda…
07-19 18:52:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0xb566d8…
07-19 18:42:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	55	69¢	$38	0x2da608…
07-19 18:35:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	69¢	$0	0xd5a642…
07-19 18:26:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x8817af…
07-19 18:25:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	156	69¢	$108	0xe7b704…
07-19 18:17:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	60	69¢	$41	0x2c0c30…
07-19 18:15:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x23e024…
07-19 17:59:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$9	0xc476ca…
07-19 17:51:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	230	69¢	$159	0x314ec9…
07-19 17:50:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0xfe30f6…
07-19 17:26:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0xe712e5…
07-19 17:26:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xd74a8c…
07-19 17:20:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	81	69¢	$56	0xf8631c…
07-19 17:19:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xeca288…
07-19 17:16:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xe81178…
07-19 17:15:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x3bd597…
07-19 17:11:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	355	69¢	$245	0x68e0c8…
07-19 16:48:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	968	69¢	$668	0x09d69d…
07-19 16:45:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,497	69¢	$1,033	0x972a12…
07-19 16:36:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,349	69¢	$930	0x4e9f3e…
07-19 16:35:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xfb02aa…
07-19 16:34:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	49	69¢	$34	0x65a322…
07-19 16:34:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	44	69¢	$31	0xac67e2…
07-19 16:34:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x27250f…
07-19 16:34:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,222	69¢	$1,533	0x54276d…
07-19 16:31:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0x0c4f07…
07-19 16:31:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	24	69¢	$17	0x4efdfa…
07-18 23:30:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,853	48¢	$890	0x23a08a…
07-18 23:00:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0xb34b52…
07-18 21:53:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8,491	48¢	$4,076	0x883e83…
07-18 21:20:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,794	48¢	$861	0x0db7bf…
07-18 21:13:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,667	48¢	$800	0x77df28…
07-18 20:48:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x52f80c…
07-18 20:27:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	106	48¢	$51	0xa0d8ec…
07-18 20:03:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x89b5c9…
07-18 19:36:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	153	48¢	$73	0xa1953d…
07-18 19:34:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0x1a135f…
07-18 19:32:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	24	48¢	$11	0xbc5e1a…
07-18 19:17:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x5ac696…
07-18 18:44:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	250	48¢	$120	0x69a485…
07-18 18:16:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2,000	48¢	$960	0xe7f889…
07-18 17:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0x11c534…
07-18 16:53:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	60	48¢	$29	0xd4e142…
07-18 16:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xec96ab…
07-18 16:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xc1309e…
07-18 16:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0x2ee419…
07-18 16:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0x093f8c…
07-18 16:51:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7,637	48¢	$3,666	0x9b4a55…
07-09 20:32:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xc1fcdd…
07-09 20:08:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xce053f…
07-09 20:08:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	821	39¢	$320	0xe1378f…
07-09 15:40:38	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4141c2…
07-09 15:37:50	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	475	98¢	$464	0x14bc3b…
07-09 15:36:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7,581	38¢	$2,881	0xeafc1f…
07-09 14:42:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x898a4a…
07-09 14:31:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	263	38¢	$100	0x1e3836…
07-09 14:08:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	26	38¢	$10	0xdb5f11…
07-09 14:08:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	26	38¢	$10	0x311f93…
07-09 14:08:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x60460f…
07-09 14:02:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x476347…
07-09 13:46:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	263	38¢	$100	0xc741a4…
07-09 13:24:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xd3888d…
07-09 13:23:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	283	38¢	$108	0x2ebd02…
07-09 13:05:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,980	0x082d31…
07-09 13:04:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x367bbf…
07-09 13:03:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0xc21a4d…
07-09 13:02:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x6db4ea…
07-09 13:02:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	13,488	38¢	$5,125	0x564b09…
07-09 05:51:41	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x187a11…
07-09 05:02:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	217	98¢	$213	0xa67a1e…
07-09 05:02:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x158a00…
07-09 04:26:50	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x4cad3c…
07-09 04:21:28	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0x0ad7b2…