Idle-Moonlight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$656

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

333

Trades

608

lifetime

Volume

$15.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$101

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-26 19:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 69% -$384

Politics

8% 50% -$183

Other

5% 58% -$100

Tech

0% 100% +$15

Sports

0% 50% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+52	$38	74¢	$38	+$0	10-26 19:51
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+29	$20	97¢	$28	+$8	10-04 04:03
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+30	$19	66¢	$20	+$1	10-14 01:10
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+15	$10	64¢	$10	$0	10-22 07:47
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	72¢	$5	+$0	09-22 08:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 08:15 UTC	10	$496	449	259	+190	Up	-$162	02-11 08:29
bitcoin up or down february 12 3am et	2	$369	186	186	+0	Down	+$2	02-12 09:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 12:15 UTC	3	$326	233	125	+108	Down	-$16	02-12 12:29
bitcoin up or down on february 12	4	$290	165	135	+30	Down	-$20	02-12 17:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$279	245	135	+110	Yes	-$50	06-15 15:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$238	275	0	+275	No	+$37	05-25 15:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 08:00 UTC	8	$235	247	0	+247	Down	+$12	02-11 08:14
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$218	230	0	+230	No	+$12	05-06 16:34
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	1	$217	230	0	+230	No	+$13	05-14 08:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 07:45 UTC	5	$215	231	0	+231	Down	+$16	02-11 07:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:45 UTC	1	$205	207	0	+207	Down	+$2	02-11 07:00
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$205	210	0	+210	No	+$5	04-24 11:37
bitcoin up or down february 12 6am et	2	$203	103	103	+0	Up	+$3	02-12 12:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 10:15 UTC	2	$197	202	0	+202	Up	+$5	02-12 10:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 17:00 UTC	1	$191	201	0	+201	Up	+$10	02-11 17:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 10:20 UTC	2	$189	206	0	+206	Down	+$9	02-12 10:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 09:45 UTC	10	$188	198	0	+198	Up	+$0	02-12 09:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 09:30 UTC	1	$186	189	0	+189	Up	+$4	02-12 09:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:30 UTC	11	$184	195	0	+195	Down	+$12	02-11 06:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:30 UTC	1	$183	187	0	+187	Up	+$4	02-11 15:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:45 UTC	1	$183	187	0	+187	Down	+$4	02-11 15:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 07:00 UTC	1	$182	207	0	+207	Down	+$25	02-11 07:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-12 08:50 UTC	4	$178	184	0	+184	Up	+$6	02-12 08:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 14:45 UTC	2	$176	178	0	+178	Down	+$3	02-11 14:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 15:00 UTC	1	$173	178	0	+178	Down	+$5	02-11 15:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 10:00 UTC	1	$169	189	0	+189	Down	+$20	02-12 10:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 11:00 UTC	1	$169	176	0	+176	Up	+$7	02-11 11:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 10:30 UTC	1	$168	169	0	+169	Down	+$0	02-11 10:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 08:30 UTC	5	$167	174	0	+174	Up	+$7	02-12 08:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 08:15 UTC	1	$165	170	0	+170	Down	+$5	02-12 08:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:51:08	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0x2aa64e…
10-26 16:25:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x0b29a0…
10-22 07:47:18	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd0e1e9…
10-21 20:46:35	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x2a6563…
10-18 05:34:11	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x465c63…
10-14 01:10:43	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xb6aaf3…
10-04 04:03:16	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x1791c8…
10-04 04:00:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xda116f…
09-22 08:04:55	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x2c4988…
09-16 10:46:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf74ba7…
07-29 04:04:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x0437c8…
07-28 14:51:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	68	78¢	$53	0x36cc2d…
07-23 12:00:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x3cb6db…
07-19 15:51:04	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x3bf65d…
07-08 13:37:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x38e914…
06-28 05:24:10	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xc72e79…
06-27 14:32:02	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x80833c…
06-15 15:37:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xe7adcc…
06-15 15:34:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x91d693…
06-15 15:32:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0xbf716c…
06-14 06:50:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xa22163…
06-13 11:19:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xe1be06…
06-12 16:15:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x13361f…
06-12 12:50:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xca748d…
06-11 19:34:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x161a30…
06-11 17:29:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x99b875…
06-11 17:15:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x930cb0…
06-07 14:30:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	130	86¢	$112	0x890da5…
06-05 12:08:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x2cb3c9…
06-01 17:44:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x2642eb…
06-01 13:54:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	130	79¢	$103	0x5764a8…
05-25 15:11:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x76e7f6…
05-25 15:09:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xfc7b41…
05-24 08:00:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x1d6701…
05-21 17:20:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	70¢	$46	0xff7500…
05-17 15:45:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x7f5d6e…
05-16 11:15:19	Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	93¢	$107	0xb1041b…
05-14 08:12:11	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	230	94¢	$217	0xe36323…
05-10 14:28:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0x95a024…
05-06 16:34:57	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	94¢	$113	0xaabe55…
05-06 14:16:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe8588b…
05-05 04:23:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd1e4b3…
05-05 02:50:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xcb698c…
05-05 02:47:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6eec56…
05-05 02:42:02	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xcde889…
05-05 02:38:26	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x864d54…
04-24 11:37:32	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	121	97¢	$118	0x4dba6d…
04-24 08:23:24	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	89	97¢	$87	0xeac796…
04-23 13:48:40	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x80ffdc…
04-20 10:46:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x868248…
04-16 21:28:24	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x3ed88e…
04-16 08:38:10	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xf30407…
03-14 12:27:59	will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	74	94¢	$69	0xb7a90f…
03-14 12:26:31	will frankenstein win exactly 3 awards at the oscars	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xdda602…
03-14 12:25:53	will f1 win best sound at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x061e74…
03-14 07:36:41	will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xe3da36…
03-13 08:36:07	bitcoin above 72k on march 13	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x5d9fbe…
03-12 15:46:19	bitcoin above 72k on march 12	Yes	SELL	28	6¢	$2	0x8fefd8…
03-12 05:12:49	bitcoin above 72k on march 12	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x9c21b3…
03-12 05:12:23	bitcoin above 70k on march 12	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd80cd9…
03-11 16:36:17	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 psg1	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa2e868…
03-11 15:50:21	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe9e134…
03-11 15:33:45	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf11580…
03-11 15:31:45	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x2a1bbe…
03-11 15:10:57	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xebf3be…
03-11 15:07:55	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8e038a…
03-11 15:05:27	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xa0745b…
03-11 15:04:37	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xccf5e8…
03-11 15:00:15	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x589d5e…
03-11 14:37:59	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x6f039a…
03-11 14:37:29	bitcoin above 70k on march 11	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xcceecb…
03-10 15:31:53	will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x173612…
03-10 15:29:11	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x48d51b…
03-10 15:27:39	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xba1ddf…
03-10 15:06:15	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6917d5…
03-10 15:06:03	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1194a9…
03-10 13:17:41	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x68eb2a…
03-10 13:17:09	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x5f9c3c…
03-10 12:04:33	will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x988caf…
03-10 12:03:49	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xfde3f5…
03-10 12:03:33	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x245971…
03-10 10:23:01	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xa29007…
03-10 08:28:01	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xcb61de…
03-10 07:26:07	bitcoin above 68k on march 10	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbd8c77…
03-10 07:25:45	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa6f89f…
03-10 07:25:23	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfed364…
03-10 07:13:39	will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x8d98d9…
03-10 07:12:43	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf96137…
03-10 07:12:13	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x9e5aef…
03-09 15:21:03	cs2 navi lgc 2026 03 09	Legacy	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x806a5f…
03-09 15:11:05	will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x63f6fd…
03-09 15:05:27	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6b2dae…
03-07 14:52:07	bitcoin above 68k on march 7	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb1d90e…
03-07 14:44:47	bitcoin above 68k on march 7	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x434bb4…
03-07 14:44:35	bitcoin above 68k on march 7	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1c5539…
03-05 08:57:53	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x124d12…
03-05 08:35:53	bitcoin above 70k on march 5	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x071e39…
03-05 08:35:37	bitcoin above 72k on march 5	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xda25d3…
03-04 16:10:07	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x8a9c09…
03-04 12:34:01	bitcoin above 70k on march 4	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x602f15…