Pessimistic-Skiing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$33.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$248

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

594

Trades

2,933

lifetime

Volume

$1.26M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$429

Open exposure

$33.8K

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 09-23 14:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Other

98% 88% -$29,417

Crypto

1% 57% -$4,644

Politics

0% 100% +$345

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		+35,122	$34,000	96¢	$33.8K	-$248	09-23 14:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?	65	$41.4K	25,588	16,849	+8,739	No	+$1,022	07-29 13:38
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20?	52	$35.7K	25,201	11,243	+13,958	No	+$693	06-20 07:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$34.0K	35,122	0	+35,122	open	—	09-23 14:03
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	25	$30.9K	31,425	0	+31,425	No	+$510	09-03 03:09
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	46	$24.3K	17,768	6,950	+10,818	No	+$419	09-01 09:24
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 27?	8	$23.1K	11,596	11,596	+0	No	+$43	07-27 14:19
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 10?	12	$22.6K	22,767	0	+22,767	No	+$203	08-10 00:23
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 25?	35	$21.5K	21,724	0	+21,724	No	+$247	07-25 00:52
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 2?	46	$18.2K	18,394	0	+18,394	No	+$199	08-01 20:24
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 28?	15	$17.8K	18,014	0	+18,014	No	+$234	08-28 02:03
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 12?	16	$17.7K	18,022	0	+18,022	No	+$322	08-11 09:36
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 4?	21	$15.8K	14,488	1,726	+12,762	No	+$428	07-04 10:55
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 30?	14	$14.5K	14,629	0	+14,629	No	+$136	07-30 02:12
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 16?	7	$14.4K	14,698	0	+14,698	No	+$336	08-16 03:21
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 2?	34	$13.5K	8,814	5,012	+3,802	No	+$259	06-02 09:38
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16?	25	$13.4K	6,851	6,851	+0	No	+$253	06-16 14:37
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22?	5	$13.1K	13,254	0	+13,254	No	+$111	06-22 03:06
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on August 1?	16	$13.0K	12,150	1,057	+11,093	No	+$178	08-01 14:12
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June 19?	24	$11.9K	6,022	6,022	+0	No	+$141	06-19 11:52
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 23?	7	$11.8K	12,089	0	+12,089	No	+$242	08-22 13:56
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 31?	9	$11.8K	5,952	5,952	+0	No	+$49	07-31 13:43
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C or below on August 25?	4	$11.8K	11,848	0	+11,848	No	+$42	08-24 09:46
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 15?	10	$11.8K	12,149	0	+12,149	No	+$372	08-14 09:41
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 31?	14	$11.8K	9,048	2,801	+6,247	No	+$73	07-31 14:43
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 15?	5	$11.7K	11,742	0	+11,742	No	+$66	08-14 09:35
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 27?	12	$11.5K	11,637	0	+11,637	No	+$94	07-27 07:15
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 26?	12	$11.5K	11,693	0	+11,693	No	+$173	08-26 03:03
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on August 16?	3	$11.0K	11,135	0	+11,135	No	+$139	08-16 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 8?	35	$10.3K	10,452	0	+10,452	No	+$163	08-07 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17?	16	$10.2K	8,736	8,736	+0	Yes	-$7,072	06-17 04:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 14:03:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	7,988	97¢	$7,713	0xc51d8d…
09-23 14:03:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	27,135	97¢	$26,287	0x0c3f70…
09-05 13:27:40	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf1eba5…
09-05 13:27:39	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x452bdf…
09-04 15:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xd8e887…
09-04 15:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 6?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0x352415…
09-04 15:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	171	99¢	$169	0x1d7716…
09-04 15:10:28	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	139	99¢	$137	0x6dd6e3…
09-04 15:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	620	99¢	$614	0x63341e…
09-04 11:51:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa6c1c7…
09-04 11:37:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	438	98¢	$430	0xadaf7c…
09-04 11:37:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 6?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$109	0x509453…
09-04 09:55:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	215	99¢	$213	0xadd6e7…
09-04 09:16:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x13d59e…
09-04 09:16:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 6?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa2e26b…
09-04 07:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xa2d651…
09-04 07:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x4cbc80…
09-04 07:02:31	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 5?	No	BUY	256	99¢	$253	0xe80881…
09-04 07:02:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	336	98¢	$331	0xe5b4f5…
09-04 07:00:43	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 4?	No	BUY	376	99¢	$371	0x6004a4…
09-04 07:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x96ab92…
09-04 06:59:52	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 4?	No	BUY	2,900	99¢	$2,871	0xe1d247…
09-04 06:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	840	98¢	$824	0x8f2ed2…
09-04 06:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf44fe7…
09-04 06:32:51	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 6?	No	BUY	246	99¢	$243	0x43a010…
09-04 06:32:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb4073c…
09-04 05:12:58	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	970	99¢	$960	0x8822d5…
09-03 10:29:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x8f16a9…
09-03 10:29:13	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x50cbe1…
09-03 10:29:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	223	98¢	$219	0x2bba26…
09-03 10:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 5?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9adb12…
09-03 10:28:36	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0xc185ef…
09-03 10:28:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 3?	No	SELL	250	100¢	$249	0x754013…
09-03 10:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 3?	No	SELL	399	100¢	$399	0xcca0bb…
09-03 10:27:58	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on September 3?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$61	0xea72d8…
09-03 10:27:18	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0xdfd380…
09-03 10:27:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 5?	No	BUY	292	99¢	$289	0x5ffddb…
09-03 10:26:49	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	No	BUY	423	98¢	$415	0xcbb02e…
09-03 10:26:49	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 5?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x4de77e…
09-03 03:09:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0x94d561…
09-03 03:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$80	0x3eefb7…
09-03 03:08:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	357	99¢	$354	0x30eb6e…
09-03 03:08:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0x941f47…
09-03 03:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	70	98¢	$68	0xf080cd…
09-03 03:08:39	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	1,119	97¢	$1,087	0x54bc25…
09-03 03:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xac6b6c…
09-02 15:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	166	98¢	$164	0x004394…
09-02 15:22:09	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xb9b6c4…
09-02 15:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	2,070	99¢	$2,049	0xf90ab1…
09-02 15:20:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 2?	No	SELL	2,450	100¢	$2,447	0xd38f8f…
09-02 15:20:07	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 4?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xed24ba…
09-02 15:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	566	98¢	$552	0xf33b9c…
09-02 15:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 4?	No	BUY	69	98¢	$68	0xf07d26…
09-02 15:18:52	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 2?	No	SELL	151	100¢	$151	0x0f806e…
09-02 15:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C on September 2?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x979f21…
09-02 15:18:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 2?	No	SELL	634	100¢	$633	0x946163…
09-02 15:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on September 2?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0xbd3091…
09-02 15:12:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	3,010	100¢	$2,997	0xadef0a…
09-02 15:11:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	3,224	99¢	$3,184	0x4b2f2e…
09-02 15:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	1,639	98¢	$1,614	0x2348f8…
09-02 12:59:21	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe602f6…
09-02 12:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	2,550	99¢	$2,525	0x2454cf…
09-02 09:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	3,632	99¢	$3,595	0x21f674…
09-02 09:08:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	4,775	98¢	$4,666	0x47eea5…
09-01 12:52:16	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x26a704…
09-01 11:37:13	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 3?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xe1015f…
09-01 11:37:09	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe2b3df…
09-01 11:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 3?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2c57a9…
09-01 11:36:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 3?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2e8e78…
09-01 11:36:51	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 3?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x5a18eb…
09-01 11:36:33	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	989	98¢	$968	0x4189ae…
09-01 09:27:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	2,521	99¢	$2,496	0x8ff71d…
09-01 09:25:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	4,533	97¢	$4,398	0x0eb534…
09-01 09:24:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	SELL	6,950	100¢	$6,943	0xb80971…
09-01 09:24:45	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C on September 1?	No	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0x71cc1d…
09-01 09:24:34	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 1?	No	SELL	359	100¢	$359	0xb207f3…
09-01 09:24:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 1?	No	SELL	1,483	100¢	$1,482	0xacf686…
09-01 09:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6f059c…
09-01 09:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x5f0dd5…
09-01 09:21:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa981b4…
09-01 08:55:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	297	97¢	$287	0x819397…
09-01 08:55:33	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 3?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xa868e2…
09-01 08:55:28	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on September 3?	No	BUY	62	99¢	$61	0x3aeb3a…
09-01 08:55:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 3?	No	BUY	199	98¢	$196	0xc8cde4…
09-01 08:53:49	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 2?	No	BUY	405	99¢	$401	0x3cd99c…
09-01 04:17:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xdee603…
09-01 04:17:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x168c53…
09-01 04:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	109	97¢	$106	0xc32d53…
09-01 04:16:52	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	111	96¢	$106	0x5d1952…
09-01 04:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x12d957…
09-01 04:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x3515d2…
09-01 04:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xe7f053…
09-01 04:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$110	0xe800af…
09-01 04:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	58	91¢	$53	0x94bdd5…
09-01 04:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xdb74fd…
09-01 04:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	208	91¢	$190	0xd86e26…
09-01 04:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xb464c5…
09-01 04:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	58	91¢	$53	0x860b83…
09-01 04:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0xfb419f…
09-01 04:11:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 1?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xf3d69b…