Likable-Storm-Orientation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

384

Trades

833

lifetime

Volume

$2.53K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 10-22 02:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Crypto

65% 36% -$175

Other

31% 18% +$150

Politics

3% 33% -$11

Tech

1% 25% +$7

Sports

0% 50% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 95 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	+8	$1	6¢	$1	$0	06-05 22:47
Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	+40	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	06-14 22:30
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+9	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	06-04 10:37
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+11	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-27 23:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	7	$337	199	199	+0	Up	+$17	10-22 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	8	$327	464	464	+0	Up	+$65	10-22 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	8	$190	527	38	+488	Down	-$126	10-22 01:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	9	$109	128	93	+35	Down	-$26	10-22 01:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	12	$92	143	88	+55	Down	-$36	10-22 01:58
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?	2	$89	98	98	+0	Yes	+$87	06-04 06:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	3	$68	38	38	+0	Up	+$8	10-22 00:34
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?	5	$50	71	71	+0	Yes	+$48	06-02 22:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	3	$35	37	0	+37	Up	+$2	10-22 00:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	4	$34	38	7	+31	Up	+$7	10-22 01:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	5	$33	2,036	0	+2,036	Down	+$3	10-22 01:40
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$32	19	19	+0	Yes	$0	06-22 14:18
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	2	$27	19	19	+0	No	+$7	05-07 21:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	12	$27	43	43	+0	Up	+$7	05-28 17:55
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7?	2	$25	29	29	+0	Yes	+$21	06-07 05:17
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	8	$23	115	0	+115	Yes	+$92	07-05 21:12
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	2	$22	13	13	+0	No	+$2	05-08 17:30
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	7	$21	1,280	0	+1,280	No	-$21	07-11 23:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	5	$20	24	21	+3	Up	+$7	05-10 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	9	$19	212	12	+200	Up	-$1	10-22 01:09
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$19	26	26	+0	No	-$1	05-08 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	6	$16	51	36	+15	Down	-$2	05-10 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	3	$16	21	21	+0	Down	+$4	05-10 00:28
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29?	2	$16	15	15	+0	Yes	+$14	05-29 09:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	7	$15	21	14	+7	Down	-$1	10-22 02:06
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$15	12	12	+0	Yes	+$9	05-09 17:37
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	05-08 12:38
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 8?	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-08 17:34
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 8?	2	$13	10	10	+0	Yes	+$7	07-08 08:03
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	2	$13	14	14	+0	Yes	+$11	06-12 23:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 02:29:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x58e954…
10-22 02:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc1be73…
10-22 02:26:33	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x2f9603…
10-22 02:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb636c5…
10-22 02:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x52ee2b…
10-22 02:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x868ea2…
10-22 02:17:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xdb0148…
10-22 02:16:39	Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x160a27…
10-22 02:16:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 23?	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x8dd69c…
10-22 02:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0xaaa984…
10-22 02:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x160bed…
10-22 02:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x7cf62f…
10-22 02:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x6f2f69…
10-22 02:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xb3b036…
10-22 02:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x7dd4dd…
10-22 02:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd52648…
10-22 02:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x84a104…
10-22 02:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x015f4e…
10-22 02:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xa3384a…
10-22 02:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x008438…
10-22 01:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	41	62¢	$25	0x234a3f…
10-22 01:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc59f1e…
10-22 01:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x8a9b25…
10-22 01:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x89e49a…
10-22 01:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb6a3cf…
10-22 01:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x25ccd2…
10-22 01:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x337793…
10-22 01:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	73	32¢	$24	0x693a4b…
10-22 01:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x30b608…
10-22 01:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xe8bdc6…
10-22 01:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x35d0df…
10-22 01:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x41bccc…
10-22 01:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x1b92dd…
10-22 01:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xa8bcb8…
10-22 01:52:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x8be6b6…
10-22 01:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	93	26¢	$24	0xf37b57…
10-22 01:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x3d9ac5…
10-22 01:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x2421a8…
10-22 01:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x5b4f50…
10-22 01:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xc1595b…
10-22 01:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xa65614…
10-22 01:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0xdf11b8…
10-22 01:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0xed0634…
10-22 01:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x1e1749…
10-22 01:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x3b40d4…
10-22 01:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	38	83¢	$32	0x28c44f…
10-22 01:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x843915…
10-22 01:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x3cd569…
10-22 01:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf1364b…
10-22 01:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	148	92¢	$136	0x3a1f8b…
10-22 01:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	70	46¢	$32	0x33188f…
10-22 01:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x604357…
10-22 01:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x3cd43f…
10-22 01:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	247	11¢	$27	0x9e5b9b…
10-22 01:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	235	11¢	$25	0x249543…
10-22 01:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x942a74…
10-22 01:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x16915e…
10-22 01:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x229520…
10-22 01:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x50590a…
10-22 01:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x571f41…
10-22 01:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xc120d0…
10-22 01:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x09484b…
10-22 01:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x50e019…
10-22 01:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf144ef…
10-22 01:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x9e382f…
10-22 01:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xc839fe…
10-22 01:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0x5cfebb…
10-22 01:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x2e5950…
10-22 01:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xf48030…
10-22 01:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x70da4a…
10-22 01:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x9aa217…
10-22 01:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x3d7c25…
10-22 01:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x4841f6…
10-22 01:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x6a99ac…
10-22 01:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x139995…
10-22 01:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x5673a9…
10-22 01:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x65213f…
10-22 01:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xe6fb2b…
10-22 01:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1340b3…
10-22 01:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5642ea…
10-22 00:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x1201a2…
10-22 00:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf4fd18…
10-22 00:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	139	99¢	$138	0xdb926b…
10-22 00:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x1f214e…
10-22 00:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x353926…
10-22 00:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xad56d1…
10-22 00:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	60	64¢	$39	0x8bda73…
10-22 00:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xbedf67…
10-22 00:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf8cad8…
10-22 00:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x0f52b0…
10-22 00:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x1302c9…
10-22 00:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x6e4ca7…
10-22 00:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0xc30ecd…
10-22 00:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x45a2a6…
10-22 00:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xd979c3…
10-21 22:43:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x813b0f…
08-10 18:54:37	Will "The Odyssey" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 32m?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xdb0bf9…
07-27 18:59:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x495378…
07-27 18:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x34e2fb…
07-27 07:35:33	will taylor swift be time person of the year 2026	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xbb432a…