Likable-Storm-Orientation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$50

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

47.7%

Resolved

104

Trades

303

lifetime

Volume

$563

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 07-19 06:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 37% $-50

Other

20% 40% $-1

Politics

14% 100% +$0

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	+40	$1	2¢	$1	$-0	06-14 22:30
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+9	$1	8¢	$1	$-0	06-04 10:37
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	+8	$1	5¢	$0	$-1	06-05 22:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	2	$27	19	19	+0	open	—	05-07 21:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	12	$27	43	43	+0	open	—	05-28 17:55
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	05-08 17:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	5	$20	24	21	+3	Up	+$7	05-10 00:43
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$19	26	26	+0	open	—	05-08 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	6	$16	51	36	+15	Down	$-2	05-10 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	3	$16	21	21	+0	Down	+$4	05-10 00:28
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	05-08 12:38
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 8?	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-08 17:34
will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	2	$12	18	18	+0	open	—	07-19 06:56
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	1	$12	0	14	-14	open	—	06-12 23:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	3	$11	27	11	+17	open	—	05-28 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$11	13	13	+0	Down	+$1	05-09 17:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	8	$11	51	19	+32	open	—	05-28 19:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	3	$11	312	62	+250	Up	$-9	05-09 17:29
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	2	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	06-12 23:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$7	137	0	+137	open	—	05-06 22:35
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Beijing" this week?	2	$7	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	05-08 17:47
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	2	$7	70	70	+0	open	—	06-19 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	5	$6	73	3	+70	Down	$-2	05-10 01:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	1	$6	100	0	+100	Up	$-6	05-09 18:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	2	$6	31	0	+31	Down	$-6	05-09 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2PM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-28 18:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	1	$6	16	0	+16	Down	$-6	05-09 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$6	17	0	+17	Up	$-6	05-10 13:29
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	2	$6	15	14	+1	open	—	05-17 19:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Up	$-5	05-09 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Up	+$8	05-09 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	1	$5	24	0	+24	Down	$-5	05-10 00:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	32	0	+32	Up	$-5	05-09 11:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 06:56:55	will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	No	SELL	18	33¢	$6	0x75d749…
07-18 18:48:39	will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	No	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x1e1e5a…
07-12 01:19:01	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x938505…
07-12 01:18:31	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x2a97a4…
07-12 01:18:14	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x859a8e…
07-07 16:49:47	will taylor swift be time person of the year 2026	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xe026d7…
07-05 19:51:29	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xdb77e9…
06-27 10:13:44	Epstein storage units raided in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x258b82…
06-19 20:58:59	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0x1ea830…
06-19 20:56:44	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0xb2900e…
06-16 21:02:07	anthropic vs meta higher valuation on june 30	Anthropic	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x5b927c…
06-16 12:06:09	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x79274c…
06-14 22:46:42	will trump speak to ursula von der leyen in june	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x02d531…
06-14 22:40:43	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x93b07e…
06-14 22:30:43	Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x043234…
06-12 23:13:09	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	6	76¢	$5	0xe602c9…
06-12 23:12:19	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	14	81¢	$12	0x442f4b…
06-08 17:30:54	will apple announce ios 27 during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x76fedd…
06-05 23:51:37	wta chwalin andreev 2026 06 06	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x95b7e6…
06-05 22:47:15	Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4eeab4…
06-05 20:00:37	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x8eec03…
06-04 10:44:22	Epstein storage units raided in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbd1a7a…
06-04 10:40:57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x446c4b…
06-04 10:37:16	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x07372d…
06-03 17:43:52	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x69f063…
06-02 21:51:36	Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	159	1¢	$2	0x4abadf…
06-02 21:51:18	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x686cec…
06-02 21:50:59	Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xbc7955…
06-02 20:36:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf59e92…
06-02 20:34:23	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x38adac…
05-29 20:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET	Down	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0xe090a9…
05-29 20:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET	Down	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x06bd88…
05-29 20:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xd55de5…
05-28 21:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x740245…
05-28 21:06:30	Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x0b8001…
05-28 20:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe3cf6e…
05-28 20:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	11	61¢	$6	0x5928b0…
05-28 20:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x3f773d…
05-28 19:47:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x6d413c…
05-28 19:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5e7a9d…
05-28 19:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	9	17¢	$1	0xc99096…
05-28 19:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x662ee6…
05-28 19:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb78e7a…
05-28 19:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc00e32…
05-28 19:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf788b5…
05-28 19:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xf86aff…
05-28 18:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xbf942a…
05-28 17:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0x6b96ce…
05-28 17:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x04329a…
05-28 17:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x9b4ce0…
05-28 17:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	1	67¢	$0	0x76d570…
05-28 17:39:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	1	67¢	$0	0xd9c926…
05-28 17:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xfc8e04…
05-28 17:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x067580…
05-28 17:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x0f058a…
05-28 17:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x1c144c…
05-28 17:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0x1f0d32…
05-28 17:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0x8d7ce9…
05-28 17:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x42d020…
05-28 16:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xaefea1…
05-28 14:04:42	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x37e787…
05-28 01:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x31398d…
05-28 00:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x422f27…
05-28 00:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0xe45946…
05-28 00:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf19e95…
05-28 00:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xd5e96b…
05-28 00:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe7fd03…
05-28 00:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x4952bc…
05-28 00:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	61¢	$0	0x0728c0…
05-28 00:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x3932e8…
05-28 00:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x741c05…
05-28 00:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x9cd60a…
05-27 23:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x07c76a…
05-27 23:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x18ec3e…
05-27 23:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x842eb3…
05-27 23:36:09	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2793d7…
05-27 23:02:10	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x521abd…
05-27 20:02:44	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xafd658…
05-17 22:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x580d5e…
05-17 22:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xdbddbc…
05-17 22:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x7467c6…
05-17 21:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x941e01…
05-17 21:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x00d97a…
05-17 21:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8efa1d…
05-17 21:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x1aa11e…
05-17 21:42:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x174a4c…
05-17 20:32:22	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x94e8ac…
05-17 20:28:01	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xc59f1c…
05-17 20:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x7605a2…
05-17 19:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xe8f5fc…
05-17 19:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x517cd7…
05-17 19:49:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x4ea7af…
05-17 19:48:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x937255…
05-17 19:47:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x6c99dc…
05-17 19:45:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0a6343…
05-17 19:45:17	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x097c56…
05-17 19:36:48	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	10¢	$2	0x0c598f…
05-17 19:36:01	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x9e6977…
05-17 19:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x95bc68…
05-17 19:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3b5f7b…