Disastrous-Pen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

18,315

lifetime

Volume

$1.23M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

$375

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 06-09 18:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% 100% +$11

Politics

17% — —

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 569 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	+137	$135	96¢	$132	$-2	06-09 16:01
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	+81	$81	100¢	$81	+$0	06-09 09:33
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	+55	$54	98¢	$54	$-0	06-08 17:53
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	-27	$-27	99¢	$-27	$-0	05-29 02:41
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	-27	$-27	99¢	$-27	$-0	06-01 03:16
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	-27	$-27	99¢	$-27	+$0	06-01 16:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+27	$27	98¢	$27	$-0	06-09 21:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	252	$19.5K	11,094	8,701	+2,393	open	—	03-28 01:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	179	$15.7K	8,944	6,864	+2,081	open	—	03-28 08:08
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	156	$14.8K	8,155	6,796	+1,359	open	—	03-29 09:51
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	179	$14.0K	7,955	6,210	+1,745	open	—	03-30 17:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	238	$13.6K	7,181	6,551	+630	open	—	04-12 09:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	126	$13.1K	7,694	5,556	+2,137	open	—	03-31 02:45
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	205	$12.2K	6,849	5,504	+1,344	open	—	03-30 12:34
netanyahu out by march 31 854	127	$12.1K	7,243	5,026	+2,216	open	—	03-31 06:12
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	116	$10.9K	6,121	4,920	+1,202	open	—	03-30 04:22
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	105	$10.7K	5,665	5,183	+482	open	—	03-18 14:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	98	$10.7K	5,586	5,214	+372	open	—	04-15 02:13
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	150	$10.3K	5,504	5,002	+503	open	—	03-30 10:20
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	134	$10.3K	5,470	5,011	+459	open	—	03-30 09:42
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	148	$10.3K	5,727	4,650	+1,078	open	—	03-24 18:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	117	$10.1K	6,135	4,150	+1,985	open	—	04-05 09:56
Netanyahu out by April 30?	159	$9.9K	5,986	4,107	+1,879	open	—	04-20 10:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	131	$9.7K	5,838	4,028	+1,809	open	—	04-17 05:16
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	110	$9.6K	5,421	4,372	+1,049	open	—	04-15 11:43
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	226	$9.6K	5,426	4,249	+1,177	open	—	02-27 07:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$9.4K	4,820	4,693	+127	open	—	03-18 14:12
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	98	$9.1K	4,720	4,480	+240	open	—	03-18 07:38
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	137	$8.8K	4,790	4,103	+687	open	—	04-21 20:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	133	$8.3K	4,418	3,933	+485	open	—	04-01 11:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	88	$8.1K	4,239	3,932	+307	open	—	04-20 10:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	91	$8.0K	4,182	3,954	+229	open	—	03-11 04:03
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	108	$7.9K	4,717	3,250	+1,467	open	—	03-31 16:46
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	110	$7.8K	4,337	3,578	+759	open	—	03-28 05:37
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	84	$7.6K	4,235	3,452	+783	open	—	03-26 15:42
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	166	$7.5K	4,426	3,139	+1,288	open	—	02-25 02:33
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	131	$7.3K	3,966	3,459	+507	open	—	02-27 13:03

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Modern-Potty 0x8b05…91f6	751	$1.31M	20,155	06-09 16:57
Aggressive-Hotel 0x293d…2737	743	$1.22M	18,269	06-09 21:40
Fatherly-Backyard 0x1b4a…eb24	741	$1.26M	18,267	06-09 21:40
Insidious-Workhorse 0xa084…d389	737	$1.36M	19,660	06-09 21:41
Criminal-Object 0xf440…269c	728	$1.21M	19,448	06-09 16:52
Mysterious-Shark 0xd5ca…08f3	726	$1.26M	17,952	06-09 16:37
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	723	$242.8K	143,117	04-27 02:25
Austere-Truth 0xf983…651c	716	$1.26M	17,952	06-09 21:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 21:41:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xc197af…
06-09 21:41:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x5d10b5…
06-09 21:40:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x12df2c…
06-09 21:14:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0xe64835…
06-09 19:32:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xefee6d…
06-09 18:50:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x9c365e…
06-09 18:19:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x1bc376…
06-09 17:45:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x716a2f…
06-09 17:03:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x349e2f…
06-09 16:59:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xd4b0e7…
06-09 16:57:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x07646c…
06-09 16:01:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x240a2b…
06-09 15:55:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xfc116d…
06-09 15:50:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x78e2e0…
06-09 15:48:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x918e03…
06-09 15:41:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	110	99¢	$108	0xe3412c…
06-09 14:55:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x0bf432…
06-09 14:54:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x1fb244…
06-09 14:53:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x4ba335…
06-09 14:52:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x318e2f…
06-09 14:22:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x7e9562…
06-09 09:33:46	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x5f0571…
06-09 09:05:49	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xc4e35e…
06-08 23:10:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0xfecdc2…
06-08 22:39:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x9d8192…
06-08 22:35:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xdd7b83…
06-08 22:34:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x1b3218…
06-08 22:28:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xd2c75f…
06-08 22:27:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xc9e4c8…
06-08 21:14:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x5beff6…
06-08 19:48:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x5a3bf8…
06-08 17:53:18	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x41f40e…
06-08 17:23:55	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd305e2…
06-08 17:23:55	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x16aa82…
06-08 17:10:19	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x1a02c3…
06-08 17:06:33	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xeb566c…
06-08 16:51:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x4e49ac…
06-08 16:40:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xd98ce3…
06-08 16:40:24	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xd3b282…
06-08 16:38:37	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x3f5fae…
06-01 16:26:52	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x20eab0…
06-01 12:10:15	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x359078…
06-01 03:16:23	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xdf549c…
05-30 14:04:18	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xac9902…
05-30 12:05:02	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x8662ca…
05-29 20:44:16	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xa2e653…
05-29 20:44:16	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x375576…
05-29 07:35:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x630986…
05-29 04:55:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xd7e9ee…
05-29 04:55:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x9fb633…
05-29 04:08:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x691c0a…
05-29 02:41:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x60815c…
05-28 21:04:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x0519fd…
05-28 17:07:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd6e4f1…
05-28 17:01:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x2d60f1…
05-28 16:30:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xeeb526…
05-28 16:29:27	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xdcbdab…
05-28 16:20:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe6f909…
05-28 16:19:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x5b9fa3…
05-28 16:06:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x029249…
05-28 16:03:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xabf716…
05-28 14:19:52	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x61cf4c…
05-28 14:18:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x30ba1b…
05-28 13:02:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe1d2d1…
05-28 09:20:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x7b3084…
05-28 08:15:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xc0c4b3…
05-28 06:01:56	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd6f3a9…
05-28 05:58:50	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0xd42b53…
05-28 05:27:24	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xf260d7…
05-28 04:53:04	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x9aad00…
05-28 04:45:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe957bb…
05-28 04:37:00	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x5797f0…
05-28 04:36:58	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x7b4896…
05-28 04:22:28	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x428050…
05-28 04:10:20	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x7dcc55…
05-28 03:59:56	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x6f6267…
05-28 03:50:43	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x8b71bb…
05-28 03:38:31	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x190715…
05-28 03:22:44	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xcdcb9e…
05-28 03:22:20	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x38ac5c…
05-28 02:39:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x378c86…
05-28 02:33:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe903bb…
05-28 02:33:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x1f8d26…
05-27 22:45:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd888f3…
05-27 22:43:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x28ff3e…
05-27 22:33:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x8afa30…
05-27 22:32:09	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x94f205…
05-27 21:57:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x0bc699…
05-27 21:50:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0xa71851…
05-27 21:50:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x981cd1…
05-27 21:28:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x263426…
05-27 20:04:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x027c34…
05-27 19:13:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2f05af…
05-27 19:11:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe41295…
05-27 19:06:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0x3ce4c5…
05-27 18:31:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x6f6856…
05-27 18:30:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe19eec…
05-27 18:27:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xabab7c…
05-27 17:52:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xdc24dc…
05-27 17:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x5d624b…