Disastrous-Pen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

18,497

lifetime

Volume

$1.23M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

$27

1 position

First seen

2026-01-26

last 06-30 00:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% 100% +$11

Politics

17% — —

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		+27	$27	98¢	$27	$-0	06-25 00:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	252	$19.5K	11,094	8,701	+2,393	open	—	03-28 01:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	179	$15.7K	8,944	6,864	+2,081	open	—	03-28 08:08
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	156	$14.8K	8,155	6,796	+1,359	open	—	03-29 09:51
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	179	$14.0K	7,955	6,210	+1,745	open	—	03-30 17:26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	238	$13.6K	7,181	6,551	+630	open	—	04-12 09:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	126	$13.1K	7,694	5,556	+2,137	open	—	03-31 02:45
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	205	$12.2K	6,849	5,504	+1,344	open	—	03-30 12:34
netanyahu out by march 31 854	127	$12.1K	7,243	5,026	+2,216	open	—	03-31 06:12
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	116	$10.9K	6,121	4,920	+1,202	open	—	03-30 04:22
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	105	$10.7K	5,665	5,183	+482	open	—	03-18 14:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	98	$10.7K	5,586	5,214	+372	open	—	04-15 02:13
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	150	$10.3K	5,504	5,002	+503	open	—	03-30 10:20
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	134	$10.3K	5,470	5,011	+459	open	—	03-30 09:42
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	148	$10.3K	5,727	4,650	+1,078	open	—	03-24 18:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	117	$10.1K	6,135	4,150	+1,985	open	—	04-05 09:56
Netanyahu out by April 30?	159	$9.9K	5,986	4,107	+1,879	open	—	04-20 10:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	131	$9.7K	5,838	4,028	+1,809	open	—	04-17 05:16
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	110	$9.6K	5,421	4,372	+1,049	open	—	04-15 11:43
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	226	$9.6K	5,426	4,249	+1,177	open	—	02-27 07:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$9.4K	4,820	4,693	+127	open	—	03-18 14:12
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	98	$9.1K	4,720	4,480	+240	open	—	03-18 07:38
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	137	$8.8K	4,790	4,103	+687	open	—	04-21 20:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	133	$8.3K	4,418	3,933	+485	open	—	04-01 11:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	88	$8.1K	4,239	3,932	+307	open	—	04-20 10:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	91	$8.0K	4,182	3,954	+229	open	—	03-11 04:03
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	108	$7.9K	4,717	3,250	+1,467	open	—	03-31 16:46
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	110	$7.8K	4,337	3,578	+759	open	—	03-28 05:37
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	84	$7.6K	4,235	3,452	+783	open	—	03-26 15:42
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	166	$7.5K	4,426	3,139	+1,288	open	—	02-25 02:33
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	131	$7.3K	3,966	3,459	+507	open	—	02-27 13:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 00:20:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xd4533a…
06-30 00:18:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x6021bd…
06-29 21:02:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2f6bca…
06-29 17:53:14	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x02769b…
06-29 17:52:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc7bd01…
06-29 17:50:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xec959b…
06-29 17:50:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb2e545…
06-29 17:50:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x73e9dd…
06-29 17:26:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x489591…
06-29 17:20:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xa1a107…
06-29 17:04:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xcfc4af…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0xbde9e8…
06-29 15:32:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xff4a5b…
06-29 15:31:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x940613…
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:28:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe5a214…
06-29 15:18:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x52eb5e…
06-29 15:17:14	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x49421d…
06-29 15:16:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x5adc0a…
06-29 14:32:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xf123dc…
06-29 14:32:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x3063d0…
06-29 14:26:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x932c1d…
06-29 14:25:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x84f591…
06-29 14:14:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xfce7e6…
06-29 14:12:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x2e35f4…
06-29 13:54:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xfe52aa…
06-29 13:51:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xa7a330…
06-29 13:40:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x2262b0…
06-29 13:39:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9d49b8…
06-29 13:34:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x1fb2a3…
06-29 13:25:14	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xa0bc99…
06-29 13:18:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$27	0xd88b73…
06-29 13:10:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x6a7c0e…
06-29 11:13:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x1ce52b…
06-29 08:01:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xfbd073…
06-29 08:01:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x89fadb…
06-29 07:56:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xd01ef1…
06-29 07:47:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0xb0d51c…
06-29 07:37:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0xed0f63…
06-29 04:01:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xf08fda…
06-29 03:46:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x7a00cc…
06-28 18:19:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xf92e72…
06-28 18:16:34	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xf0b9bc…
06-28 18:08:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x46296f…
06-28 08:59:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0x8dadf5…
06-28 08:15:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x23b3f1…
06-25 12:12:53	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x932a76…
06-25 00:01:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x8b1ec4…
06-23 21:54:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x893da9…
06-23 21:20:23	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x3c4407…
06-23 08:59:20	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd9f83f…
06-23 08:49:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x17c2df…
06-23 08:46:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x8017cc…
06-23 08:37:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x898da0…
06-23 08:32:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe2d240…
06-23 08:22:20	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0173bd…
06-23 08:13:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0bd6b6…
06-23 07:38:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf4bc0e…
06-23 06:18:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x67c1a5…
06-23 06:16:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x27e2ef…
06-22 23:37:01	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa32778…
06-22 14:31:14	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x2a9d5d…
06-22 08:34:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x446124…
06-22 08:32:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x238d59…
06-22 08:31:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x1fc390…
06-22 08:31:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x5d4840…
06-22 08:31:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xc9b525…
06-22 08:30:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x48e9f9…
06-22 08:28:59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xa11503…
06-22 08:26:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xeb39c5…
06-22 08:25:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0xcbb357…
06-22 08:23:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xf089a3…
06-22 08:23:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xec6bea…
06-22 08:20:32	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xc58b76…
06-22 08:15:50	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x7d85fd…
06-22 08:15:38	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x401016…
06-22 02:04:07	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x976e06…
06-22 02:02:46	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x6ee88d…
06-22 01:38:41	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xf3a0b2…
06-22 01:15:29	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x762414…
06-22 01:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x8cbcae…
06-22 01:11:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x4356d2…
06-21 14:05:44	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf5ca3e…
06-21 12:06:50	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xd5090b…
06-21 09:04:02	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x4a4d1f…
06-20 23:17:10	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x39326b…
06-20 23:10:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x29ce0d…
06-20 23:06:19	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd73df0…
06-20 22:50:53	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xe9b88a…
06-20 22:39:37	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xcb6d32…
06-20 03:37:08	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x7df010…
06-20 00:38:31	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x2c96a3…
06-18 17:08:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xb75119…
06-18 13:01:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xb7a17a…
06-18 06:31:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xe9dd02…
06-18 03:37:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x114020…
06-18 03:28:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x4d2b8f…
06-18 02:02:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xfc24ee…
06-18 02:02:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x5a078a…
06-18 01:23:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x6c83e4…