Agonizing-Hubris — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

73.1%

Resolved

298

Trades

672

lifetime

Volume

$8.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-26 10:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

77% 78% +$1

Crypto

14% 68% $0

Politics

6% 62% +$0

Sports

2% 27% $0

Tech

0% 0% —

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	09-17 19:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28?	4	$95	47	47	+0	No	+$0	06-28 18:02
bitcoin above 56k on june 25 2026	3	$68	43	26	+17	Yes	$0	06-25 14:48
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on July 16?	7	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-16 05:08
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%?	5	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	05-29 18:28
ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	3	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-22 04:49
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 21?	3	$62	31	31	+0	No	$0	07-21 23:57
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 24?	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	05-24 03:47
will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-19 22:47
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on May 25?	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	05-25 07:25
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on July 5?	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-05 15:07
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 24?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-24 03:49
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-02 22:43
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-26 07:16
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3?	6	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-03 05:07
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 7?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-07 03:31
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on July 9?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-09 20:20
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-26 03:40
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on July 13?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-12 22:02
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-03 09:08
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 17?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-16 07:57
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-02 21:11
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-20 01:39
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-11 02:15
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 4?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-04 13:01
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 18?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-17 14:25
bitcoin above 58k on july 5 2026	2	$54	27	27	+0	Yes	$0	07-04 22:20
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on July 19?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-19 19:37
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 2?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-02 06:01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 7?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-06 21:36
solana above 90 on july 22 2026	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-21 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 10:22:06	Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x869aee…
10-25 10:17:15	Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbd8508…
10-13 16:21:42	Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x6aa42e…
10-13 16:20:51	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x723d8d…
10-13 16:19:57	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x216eaf…
09-24 22:00:59	Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5eb7f2…
09-17 19:05:58	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x48ecc6…
08-25 16:55:18	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7f040b…
08-09 12:09:22	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1a0f24…
07-22 04:49:46	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x40478c…
07-22 03:06:40	Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x97f984…
07-22 01:04:10	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xff9472…
07-22 00:19:16	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xeebcb0…
07-21 23:57:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 21?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xa5c4f2…
07-21 19:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe068f0…
07-21 18:18:07	solana above 90 on july 22 2026	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xdcbdeb…
07-21 16:53:21	solana above 90 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa08a03…
07-21 13:02:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 21?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x831ad8…
07-21 12:47:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xb0677a…
07-21 12:23:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x88a4e8…
07-21 10:30:00	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x115f4f…
07-21 08:29:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xdce38b…
07-21 06:36:37	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 21?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x649c8f…
07-21 05:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x536d16…
07-21 04:51:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x731c24…
07-21 03:49:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa02143…
07-21 03:35:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9b0a81…
07-20 21:41:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 21?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x0f5cc0…
07-20 20:37:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf4c760…
07-20 17:49:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa44ea8…
07-20 16:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa495b3…
07-20 10:08:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc03401…
07-20 08:02:43	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 21?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x25220c…
07-20 04:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 20?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xfce6e7…
07-20 04:20:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 21?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9c8b87…
07-20 01:39:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x87103e…
07-20 01:39:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9eabda…
07-20 01:34:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x0ab082…
07-19 23:21:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6bc80f…
07-19 22:47:36	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd16e90…
07-19 22:40:09	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x505412…
07-19 22:30:31	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x1af8a7…
07-19 22:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 20?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x187005…
07-19 20:35:33	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2c7415…
07-19 19:37:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on July 19?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xdfcdb7…
07-19 16:00:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 20?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2783fb…
07-19 15:18:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x8bd1d2…
07-19 15:00:28	Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb9d812…
07-19 12:16:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 20?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe38b91…
07-19 10:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2b0f6f…
07-19 09:01:48	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xb74ec3…
07-19 07:14:46	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3e0f52…
07-19 02:07:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on July 19?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xbd698a…
07-19 01:57:04	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa4b272…
07-19 01:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 19?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xedea61…
07-19 01:36:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 19?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3f11a7…
07-18 22:04:03	Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x7a4795…
07-18 12:26:22	Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xaaea6f…
07-18 12:14:36	Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x38a964…
07-18 04:04:31	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 18?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xca915f…
07-17 22:44:34	Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x83b2e5…
07-17 16:34:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xb762c4…
07-17 16:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 17?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe7dd47…
07-17 15:40:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x588223…
07-17 15:20:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 18?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9157d2…
07-17 14:25:27	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 18?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x9ab3d9…
07-17 13:18:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 18?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6dfe19…
07-17 10:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xed1ddf…
07-17 10:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x61a6d1…
07-17 10:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x0e28be…
07-17 09:45:27	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5d1b4e…
07-17 09:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfb62ff…
07-17 07:41:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xd57689…
07-17 06:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x411d19…
07-17 05:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7ff025…
07-17 04:49:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x30cee9…
07-17 04:15:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4c4700…
07-17 03:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x83bb08…
07-17 03:08:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 17?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6741be…
07-17 02:05:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 17?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1fba45…
07-16 21:48:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on July 17?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x6e7735…
07-16 19:02:17	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on July 17?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3b4057…
07-16 18:26:23	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 17?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5bba28…
07-16 17:21:04	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 16?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x5571cc…
07-16 17:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 17?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$18	0xbb879c…
07-16 14:19:56	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 17?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$18	0xc9aa2b…
07-16 12:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x64ae3e…
07-16 09:49:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on July 17?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x423aa7…
07-16 08:12:35	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 16?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfb07c7…
07-16 07:57:53	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 17?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xcbba3f…
07-16 06:59:04	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x51f035…
07-16 05:11:50	bitcoin above 72k on july 17 2026	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x91e1ad…
07-16 05:10:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C or higher on July 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xbb9424…
07-16 05:08:47	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on July 16?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x00021b…
07-16 05:07:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 16?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x121d84…
07-16 03:55:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 16?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbe2b8e…
07-16 03:37:32	bitcoin above 72k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbac950…
07-16 00:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C or higher on July 16?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x57e65d…
07-16 00:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 16?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x70e21d…
07-16 00:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on July 16?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf05e1b…