Active-Cappelletti — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$635

Unrealized P&L

+$46

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved

Trades

218

lifetime

Volume

$48.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$223

Open exposure

$580

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-05 22:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 77% +$555

Other

19% 94% +$99

Politics

13% 67% -$24

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$3

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No		-655	-$626	88¢	$-580	+$46	08-05 17:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	9	$7.9K	5,849	2,082	+3,767	No	+$10	04-22 19:14
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	18	$4.9K	2,688	2,688	+0	open	—	07-28 22:34
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	4	$4.0K	2,020	2,020	+0	No	-$2	04-21 14:16
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	4	$3.2K	1,478	2,000	-522	No	+$51	03-07 11:26
Paradex FDV above $3B one day after launch?	5	$3.2K	66	3,218	-3,152	No	-$61	02-22 11:05
Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?	1	$3.1K	3,198	0	+3,198	Yes	+$64	03-09 01:05
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	18	$2.6K	2,123	2,123	+0	Yes	-$16	02-01 21:49
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	1	$2.5K	2,544	0	+2,544	No	+$3	03-30 19:01
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$1.9K	951	951	-0	No	+$1	01-30 11:59
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	4	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-03 04:34
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	20	$1.8K	685	1,340	-655	open	—	08-05 22:16
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.7K	880	880	+0	Yes	+$1	04-17 12:18
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	8	$1.5K	1,872	0	+1,872	Yes	+$332	02-15 16:38
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-01 09:38
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?	10	$1.2K	4,050	4,000	+50	Yes	+$305	01-29 20:56
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	2	$998	500	500	+0	No	$0	01-30 12:01
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	6	$948	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-19 09:10
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$523	526	0	+526	No	+$3	01-29 20:50
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	7	$497	348	348	+0	Yes	+$10	01-30 16:24
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$336	337	0	+337	No	+$0	04-22 17:45
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	4	$230	119	119	+0	open	—	06-24 01:33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	5	$204	305	305	+0	Yes	-$21	02-01 18:30
Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	06-24 01:32
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?	12	$164	5,180	5,041	+139	Yes	+$5	01-29 19:52
will infinex launch a token by february 28 2026	1	$119	119	0	+119	Yes	+$0	01-30 10:49
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-04 23:33
will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 1520	2	$87	44	44	+0	No	+$1	02-13 14:57
will paul thomas anderson one battle after another win best director of a theatrical feature film at the 78th dga awards	1	$56	58	0	+58	Yes	+$2	02-06 19:36
will im the problem by morgan wallen be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of february 7	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$1	02-02 18:08
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	01-29 19:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 22:16:59	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x959932…
08-05 22:16:21	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x91b570…
08-05 17:14:24	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	85¢	$9	0x9a0c0a…
08-05 11:06:54	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0xfc361c…
08-03 23:55:27	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	359	88¢	$316	0x669b75…
07-28 22:37:52	will abstract launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x1b6e4b…
07-28 22:34:01	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xe85bcd…
07-28 22:33:53	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x35f81a…
07-28 22:33:35	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xbc4649…
07-28 22:33:32	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	271	88¢	$239	0xb9741a…
07-28 11:00:31	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xc943e2…
07-28 11:00:28	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x928ff9…
07-28 11:00:17	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xa42b99…
07-28 10:48:34	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb3c487…
07-28 10:48:32	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	310	87¢	$270	0x8876d2…
07-28 10:19:04	will abstract launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	68	9¢	$6	0x61ebde…
07-28 10:10:14	will abstract launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xb6aaaf…
07-28 03:37:18	will abstract launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xfd0879…
07-28 03:36:48	will abstract launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xfa44b6…
07-28 00:23:04	will abstract launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xab1592…
07-27 21:43:06	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x9fc62c…
07-27 10:51:46	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	208	90¢	$186	0x84336d…
07-27 10:05:03	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	347	91¢	$314	0xb9544b…
07-27 10:04:37	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	106	92¢	$97	0x22d484…
07-20 22:57:28	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	458	87¢	$400	0x20395e…
07-20 20:56:45	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x32ed64…
07-20 19:20:34	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	237	90¢	$212	0x9288f7…
07-20 07:12:27	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0x77509e…
07-11 00:17:40	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdd0917…
07-11 00:17:38	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	549	85¢	$464	0xf80095…
07-05 21:35:38	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xaa794b…
07-05 21:34:23	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x8fe9fb…
07-05 21:34:07	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	301	92¢	$276	0x4bfef7…
07-05 21:33:53	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	926	93¢	$859	0x01bcff…
07-03 04:34:46	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0x43479f…
07-02 06:55:28	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	276	89¢	$246	0xa897fd…
07-01 09:38:59	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,000	70¢	$700	0x0d0b75…
06-30 09:25:50	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	713	89¢	$632	0xab8e22…
06-24 01:33:50	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	119	96¢	$115	0xa9f55a…
06-24 01:32:58	Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x74e95b…
06-23 20:59:31	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	69	88¢	$61	0x886b1a…
06-23 20:59:07	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x5645a5…
06-21 22:00:23	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	90¢	$99	0x6d64ef…
06-13 05:04:28	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	75	94¢	$71	0x27f167…
06-10 15:56:24	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xc347b9…
06-10 15:55:54	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x24d7e3…
06-10 15:54:18	Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	48	91¢	$44	0x5d0cb7…
06-09 21:09:45	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x23cd31…
06-09 20:03:55	hyperbeat fdv above 10m one day after launch	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x4bc184…
06-09 17:25:40	hyperbeat fdv above 10m one day after launch	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x44deed…
06-09 17:21:34	hyperbeat fdv above 10m one day after launch	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xfb6ce5…
06-08 18:00:15	Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xc982e9…
05-31 20:41:27	Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x841a3e…
05-31 15:33:55	Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x086ed6…
05-31 15:11:06	Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x6d2246…
05-31 15:06:00	Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xfc299a…
05-31 14:15:34	Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x939034…
05-31 14:10:00	Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x39bd34…
05-25 08:01:39	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	140	94¢	$131	0xa8121b…
05-25 05:13:06	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0x8fc17a…
05-19 09:11:19	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	773	91¢	$704	0xdf0c47…
05-19 09:10:13	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	390	37¢	$143	0x5514b6…
05-19 08:23:03	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,800	91¢	$1,630	0x7ef94d…
05-10 14:22:33	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	610	50¢	$305	0x62d009…
05-10 07:10:38	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xd5793b…
05-08 10:53:47	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	428	50¢	$214	0xf3dd9f…
05-08 08:10:43	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd9e222…
05-07 15:51:01	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x170771…
05-07 02:41:46	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	565	50¢	$282	0x4f6ec6…
05-06 14:29:51	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	800	79¢	$632	0xf65c26…
05-06 13:40:38	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xea6c69…
04-22 19:14:04	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	213	100¢	$213	0x08639d…
04-22 18:47:20	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,788	100¢	$2,776	0x1ddda7…
04-22 18:19:36	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	641	99¢	$636	0x4035b0…
04-22 17:54:26	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x06b24d…
04-22 17:45:52	USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	337	100¢	$336	0x1d2e1d…
04-21 14:16:48	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	163	100¢	$163	0xc19093…
04-21 14:04:46	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,211	99¢	$1,204	0x61c890…
04-21 13:56:30	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	861	99¢	$856	0xbb409c…
04-21 13:49:16	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x78804f…
04-21 13:19:48	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,857	100¢	$1,853	0xf80894…
04-21 08:59:44	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	999	100¢	$998	0x583876…
04-21 08:59:28	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,021	100¢	$1,020	0xfb9f39…
04-20 23:49:30	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,831	100¢	$1,828	0xfd3b3b…
04-20 18:21:36	USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	251	100¢	$250	0x41685e…
04-17 12:18:06	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	880	99¢	$870	0x66473f…
04-15 09:42:40	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	880	99¢	$870	0x18ce7f…
03-30 19:01:35	EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,544	100¢	$2,541	0x3ee2cc…
03-09 01:05:41	Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,198	98¢	$3,133	0xbdd3f8…
03-07 11:26:43	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	2,000	95¢	$1,903	0xf9ae6f…
03-07 06:52:45	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	65	90¢	$59	0x2eb25b…
03-07 06:52:05	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	35	90¢	$32	0xb5adb9…
03-07 06:51:35	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	1,377	90¢	$1,239	0x47149e…
02-22 11:05:34	Paradex FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,830	98¢	$2,772	0xd35878…
02-21 19:17:08	Paradex FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	66	98¢	$65	0x734d3a…
02-15 16:38:13	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	166	81¢	$134	0xa57453…
02-15 16:12:43	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	158	81¢	$128	0xcf98f2…
02-15 15:49:37	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	343	81¢	$278	0xcab17b…
02-13 14:57:49	will antnio jos seguro win the second round by 1520	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x48afdf…
02-12 15:31:51	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xcc0a38…